In a recent article written by Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, he quotes Terry Collins as saying “I don’t think that there is any question that we should be playing October next year”, which echoes that comments Matt Harvey has made. The team has high expectations of competing, and the manager believes that this upcoming season should be promising. Collins would go on to share his view of the startling lineup for next year, which would be Lagares, Granderson, Wright, Duda, Cuddyer, Murphy, d’Arnaud, Flores and the pitcher. Cuddyer would play right field, Granderson would be moved to left, and John Mayberry Jr. would fill in right field when Cuddyer plays first. Knowing the pitching will likely be the strength of the Mets, the main question is will this lineup catapult the team into contention? Here are some factors that are going to decide the outcome:
Health- Last season, the Mets saw too many injuries to their main offensive pieces throughout the season. Injuries to Juan Lagares and David Wright hurt the Mets’ chances of winning tremendously. Lagares, who played in 116 games, was the most valuable offensive member with 5.5 WAR. Without Lagares in the lineup, the outfield defense decreases tremendously, and the offense loses a solid contributor. With a .281 average and a .321 OBP, the potential to be a leadoff hitter is there, and ideally, there would be more stolen bases, as he only has 19 steals the past two seasons.
The Captain also needs to have a healthy season. Out of his last four seasons, three have been disappointing, and in all those three seasons, he played in less than 140 games. Injuries are apart of the game, however Wright needs to play a full season to put up good numbers. The 32-year-old veteran is the key piece (according to Collins), as the manager went on saying Wright’s bat will be the most important to have in the lineup. If Wright is healthy and hits 20 or more home runs, the Mets become a decent offense.
New big-named acquisition Michael Cuddyer is expected to have a great season and put up good numbers. Last season, he appeared in 49 games and had a WAR of 1.2. Although he was valuable last season, there needs to be more production throughout the season. When he plays 130 or more games, Cuddyer can make a lasting impact. In 2013, Cuddyer hit 20 homers and drove in 84 runs in 130 games and had a 3.7 oWAR. The acquisition of Cuddyer becomes a boom if he can stay healthy and on the field. The offensive production will come, but only if there is health.
Improvement- Last season, we saw two players really become solid offensive forces in the lineup. Lucas Duda made the most of being the only first basemen on the roster hitting 30 homers, and Travis d’Arnaud turned his season around in the second half. If Duda can improve hitting left-handed pitching, then he becomes one of the most well rounded offensive forces in the Major Leagues. d’Arnaud will have to start off hot, as he hit .265 in the second half of the season, with a slugging percentage of .474. If he can put up these stats throughout the whole course of a year, the lineup becomes deeper with another slugger.
Some Production from Shortstop- Last season was a nightmare for the shortstop position. Last offseason, the Mets were tied up in rumors relating to Stephen Drew, but did not sign him. This offseason, it seems that the Mets are looking at the trade markets to improve at the position. Offensively, Wilmer Flores should be fine. In 78 games, Flores hit 6 homers and drove in 29 runs. His .251 average should improve with more experience in the majors, and hopefully his defense holds up. Either way, there will be more production from shortstop with Flores as the starter.
The lineup is solid as of now. There seem to be on and off rumors about the acquisition of a shortstop, but Flores should be able to hold up. With health, improvements and a little more production from the shortstop position, the lineup should compliment the rotation in talent, and this will hopefully lead the Mets to a playoff run in the 2015 season.
I actually like our lineup assuming no addition to the roster the only change I’d make is I Murph in the 2 hole and Grandy down 6th. I understand Grandy prefers to be up near the top of the lineup but I like his potential power behind Cuddyer and Murphy’s contact in the 2 hole. Obviously if an addition is made then you re-calibrate accordingly but i like Floreses Bat in the 8 hole.
Speaking of re-calibration when Mayberry Jr starts what’s your line up? mine is Juan, Murph, Mayberry, Wright, Cuddyer, TDA, Grandy, Floras. If you want to sit Grandy against a really tough Lefty: Juan, Murph, Mayberry, Wright, Cuddyer, TDA, Campbell, Floras. If Murph needs the day ok Tajada plays SS bats 8th while Floras plays 2nd but i don’t see that happening often.
Any other Ideas short of acquiring someone else ?
I like your ideas JC. Is Mayberry going to be strong enough in the third spot? I may switch Cuddyer into the third spot and Mayberry into the fourth, but either way I like your ideas. I’ve always been in favor of Murphy batting second and Granderson batting later in the lineup. Hopefully with Kevin Long coming back, the Mets can get Granderson going, and he can become a guy driving in runs.
You gotta be joking or smoking something with abundant amounts of THC. Collins is a terrible manager. He believes Ruben Tejada is a better hitting SS than Wilmer Flores, and he wants Tejada to be the Mets 2015 starting SS. Meanwhile Wally Backman clearly stated, “Wilmer Flores is the greatest RBI guy I have ever coached.” Terry Collins is clueless and is a mere Wilpawn media hack. He has Granderson batting second when he is much more productive batting sixth Look at his statistics which back this up. Murphy should bat second not Grandy. Murphy steals bases which Grandy no longer can do. Murphy gets on base where Curtis strikes out way too much. and has a low OBP so he absolutely should not bat second. Wilmer Flores has much more hitting potential then Travis d”Arnaud so I would have Wilmer bat 7th and Travis 8th. Since Kirk is out of options I would include Kirk on my Opening Day roster, and I would have den Dekker start the year in Vegas. Puello is also out-of-options so I would not loose him to another team by DFA ing him. I’d rather the Mets put him on the opening day roster too. He is a right hand back up bat, and plays RF and LF in an OK defensive fashion. The Mets have Grandy and Cuddyer who are old by baseball age standards and they will need time off so I would play Puello at least twice a week as a starter to relieve both Cuddyer and Grandy of various baseball aches and pains. The same goes for Wright which is why I would keep Campbell who I feel is very good utility man who plays all positions other than catcher and is fairly adept at all 7 positions he plays plus he will hit about 250 or above. So I think he is a keeper.
The Mets as currently constructed are an 81-85 win team and fall short of the playoffs. The keystone defense and catcher are a concern. Right field will also be a concern so it is not the offense I worry about. The offense should not have a hole in it as it has in past years . The acquisition of Mayberry should force a platoon and I would just let him bat clean up vs LHP. The only other difference I have is Lagares and Murphy. Murphy should lead off vs RHP with Lagares 7th and TdA 6th. Against LHP I agree with Collins line up and I can’t believe I just wrote that!
In terms of projected wins we disagree but not as much as you may think I think the Addition of Harvey and the call up of Thor around the all star break trade deadline at the latest make the Mets an 85-90 win team. They may sneak into the final wild card spot if everything breaks right.
81 wins? They should have won 82 last yr win their positive run differential, idk why you think their going to stay within that range when this team is obviously better than last yrs? We have Harvey instead if gee essentially, we have cuddyer instead if c young (ugh) we have Flores over the 290 slugging tejada and our prospects are going to contribute. Plaweki, Thor, montero, Matz, Herrera and Nimmo are the ones who are going to get the call if grandy sprains his calf or colon sucks. Chin up…it’s gonna be a great season and if not at least we get rid of Terry!!!
I like the proposed lineup. Moving Granderson up to leadoff, Murph to 2nd and Lagares down to the 8th spot might also be a way to go. Though I think TC might end up going with the lineup above and then flipping Murph and Granderson though. But I kinda like the idea of Murph 6th.
Re: Wright, I wouldn’t say 3 of the last 4 years have been disappointing. He was great in both 2012 and 2013 despite the missed games in 2013. 2011 and 2014 were down years though. Hopefully he can rebound in 2015 like he did in 2012.
Granderson batting leadoff is an interesting option. I’m not 100% sold on Lagares batting leadoff, but he will do for now.
Also, Wright had a solid in 2013, but my argument was that he was not healthy for the whole season. When he did play, he was pretty valuable that season. I think he will rebound next season, I think playing injured took a toll on him, but with a healthy start, hopefully he can play like an MVP candidate next season.
James: check out this link and see if you change your mind.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
Against LHP Lagares has a .387 OBP but against RHP a .303 OBP. Murphy against RHP has a .334 OBP therefore vs LHP Lagares should lead off and vs RHP Murphy should lead off. It is a waste to have a power hitter like Granderson leading off. I hope this sells you on Lagares, vs LHP, as a lead off hitter and squashes you idea of Granderson leading off.
I like the lineup, but agree that Murphy and Granderson should be switched. Despite what Granderson might say, he’s much more productive during his career in the 6 hole than in the 2 hole. Lagares is going to strike out, so Granderson batting second is going to have way too many strike outs one through four.
“Terry Collins as saying “I don’t think that there is any question that we should be playing October next year”, which echoes that comments Matt Harvey has made. ”
Strange how the mind works I see a quote of Collins saying we will be a playoff team and I think “so what”. I see that Harvey says the same thing and I get excited for our prospects this coming season.
Matt Kind of reminds me of a bull in a china shop I love his competitiveness. I just worry sometimes he wants to run before he walks. I hope his desire to lead does not cause him to over do it. Every time the team has tried to slow him down it has been a fight. This guy can be great for a long time I want to watch him for over a decade and not see him burn bright and be gone like Mark Pryor. In any case to quote Casey Stangel “Love our young Metsies (I have no clue how to spell that)”
In regards to Collins I think he is on the hot seat. But much to the chagrin of many true Mets fans we know he be the coach thru ought the entire season. Even if he blunders and makes incompetent moves during the game. He is an inept skipper. Fire him; and get Wally.
I don’t think Collins is inept at all. Over his time I frankly think he has gotten more from this team then most would have. I may be the only met fan in the country that did not want Backmen hired back when Terry got the gig. I did not believe the team was ready to win and I wanted a calming presence in the dugout something I don’t believe Wally is. That said if they don’t win 90 this season at the end of the year it will be time for a change and Wally would be on my short list to replace Terry though not at the top of it.
If terry is fired in season I believe Backman is the best in house candidate and would finish out the season as interim MGR but if we were to be looking in the off season I’d cast a wider net. Look around the game for a young guy don’t be in a rush to hire Wally he is not in demand and you can go back to him if he proves to be the guy. It’s just my opinion but I feel like Wally is more Valentine in boston than NY and I personally loved Bobby V in NY from day one. Wally strikes me as a lot of drama that will just get blown up in NY. I know this is an unpopular opinion but its honestly how I feel.
Collins needs to build his lineup in a way that offers protection for Flores. I believe in Wilmur, but putting him in the 8 hole will expose his biggest weakness at the plate (plate discipline). I recommend moving Grandy to 8 and moving Flores up to 7. if Wilmur is a part of the future Collins needs to put him in a position to succeed. at least to start the season. if Grandy bounces back from a bad ’14, obviously things should be reconsidered, but no matter what if Collins doesn’t protect the kid, he could ruin him.
So you’re saying the 8-hole is the hardest spot to hit? Doesn’t that mean you should be super impressed with how Tejada performed there last year considering most of his ABs were in that “tough” spot.
I get a chuckle whenever people claim that the 8th spot is any harder to hit in any other part of the lineup.
Crappy hitters get placed as low as possible, and Wilmer Flores is as crappy as they come.
just look at last year, Wilmur hit a lot better once they moved him out of the 8th spot.
that may be but frankly you need to protect TDA and Florases power can do that while maximizing Grandy in the 6 hole. Ideally I’d have a SS who could lead off and Drop Juan to the 8 hole letting him try to get on ahead of the pitcher not having another leadoff hitter I’m left with putting Floras in the 8 hole to lengthen the power in your lineup.
“just look at last year, Wilmur hit a lot better once they moved him out of the 8th spot.”
A factually incorrect statement.
From the start of the season until August 4th (before he got regular playing time) he started 23 games and was in the 8th spot just 3 times. He hit .229/.260/.313
From August 7th to Sep 6th (when got regular playing time) he played 25 games and was in the 8th spot 18 times. He hit .264/.302/.374
From Sep 7th to the end of the season, he was moved up in the lineup and in 19 games started, he hit 8th just once.
He hit .250/.286/.458
but, exclude his 1 career game against Brad Penny and his line is
.221/.260/.338
Aside from one Ruthian performance, Flores was hitting better when he was batting 8th.