Now we’re really getting to it as we are about to start to move into the top five players in the Mets system. In case you missed any of the other posts on our countdown thus far, please check them out at: 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27, 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15, 14-11, 10-9 and 8-7. Next up is:
6 – Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo was the Alderson regime’s first draft pick and has thus been the focus of much scrutiny over the course of his young professional baseball career. The focus on him wasn’t helped by the fact that he was from a part of Wyoming where they didn’t play high school baseball and his only experience up to that point was on travel teams. This fact, along with the Mets financial status at the time, made the selection particularly controversial. The Mets fan was looking for a chance to play meaningful baseball again, soon and the Alderson regime was making it clear with their player moves and with this pick, that getting the Mets to a contending position was going to be a much slower process.
Nimmo, just like the next first round pick of the new front office, would become poster children for the fans frustration with this process. Nimmo’s first foray into professional baseball wasn’t all that bad. In his first 32 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League, Nimmo hit two home runs and posted a 761 OPS. It was a small sample size, but it was the beginning of what has become a very interesting player in the Mets farm system.
Nimmo followed that performance by making his way to Brooklyn in 2012, where he posted a 778 OPS and started to show off the major piece of his skillset that most stood out early in his career; the ability to take a walk. Nimmo had a 14% walk rate in Brooklyn that season and had shown decent power considering that he was playing in the New York Penn League as nearly 42% of his hits went for extra bases and he had a 158 ISO. It was a positive debut for the neophyte, but was unfortunately followed by struggles when he was promoted to full season Savannah.
Nimmo was starting to get known for having a lot of swing and miss in his game and while in the Savannha, this became readily apparent. Nimmo’s walk rate remained the same, nearly touching 15%, but his strike out moved up to 26% with 131 k’s in just 480 plate appearances. The problem with the numbers was that this high rate of strike outs was not accompanied by power. Many big leaguers, from Adam Dunn to Mark Reynolds, have made lasting careers with high strike out rates, solid walk rates and lots of power. Nimmo’s ISO in Savannah was a paltry 86 and less than 25% of his hits went for extra bases. His high OBP kept him productive, but his body type and his draft status dictated that he needed to be able to produce more than just an ability to take a walk to classify him as not a bust.
Entering 2014, the discussion of whether Nimmo was a missed opportunity in the first round was very much alive. Nimmo quieted that discussion with a terrific 2014. Promoted to St. Lucie to start the season, Nimmo tore apart the Florida State League. Nimmo batted .322 with a 906 OPS and walked as much as he struck out (50 walks to 51 strike outs). The power didn’t appear there as only about 25% of his hits went for extra bases, but the extreme productivity, high walk rate and lowered strike out rate earned Nimmo a promotion to Binghamton mid-season. Nimmo made what is considered the make or break move in the minor leagues, the move the Double-A with some aplomb. Although his average dipped to .238, his power returned as he posted a 158 ISO and had nearly 40% of his hits go for extra bases. When you look at the 2014 season in its entirety, you can see a pretty good picture of where Nimmo stands at this time. He’s still a high walks player, posting a just under 14% walk rate, which is where he’s been at most of his career, but he’s lowered his strike out rate considerably as it dipped to just under 19%. This accompanied the return of his power and, along with a strong physique (Sandy Alderson made comments in spring training of 2014 that Nimmo was now “looking like a man”), the hope is that the lowered strike out rate will continue to show the increased power numbers he displayed in Binghamton.
His production aside, what it comes down to with Nimmo is potential. Nimmo was your classic high risk, high reward draft pick. Nimmo doesn’t have flaws in his game. All of his athletic traits mark as at least average to above average. He can hold his own in center field, but will be best served in left field due to average arm strength. However, most scouts agree that he wouldn’t be just good in left field, he would be a plus glove in left field with a plus arm for that position. His pitch recognition is already advanced and, although his bat speed isn’t plus, Nimmo makes up for it with an all fields approach and a terrific mastery of the strike zone.
In the end, Nimmo is getting close. A lot of people are projecting a .280 plus hitter with a high OBP, 30 plus doubles, 15 to 20 home runs and terrific defense out of a corner outfield spot. That pretty much takes the bust out of the vocabulary for Nimmo. Those projections give the Mets a corner outfielder to look forward to.
5 – Rafael Montero
Montero has moved fast through the Mets system. Signed in 2011 as a 20 year old international amateur free agent, Montero has done nothing but impress in his time as a Mets farm hand. Montero’s ERA didn’t bump above three until a promotion to Las Vegas in 2013. Even in the offensive airs of the Pacific coast league, his ERA barely made that move, sitting at 3.05 in 88.2 innings in 2013 while Montero pitched against competition nearly five years older than him.
All of this lead to Montero being ranked as a top 100 prospect in all of baseball by both MLB.com and Baseball America, as well as being one of the Mets top ten prospects on every list he could possibly appear on. His ERA, matched with terrific control and the ability to miss bats, along with his size, was bringing up Pedro Martinez comparisons and making it very likely that Montero was going to make his debut in the major leagues in 2014, which he did, posting a 4.06 ERA over 44.1 innings. It wasn’t the eye catching debuts that Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom made, but it was solid for a 23 year old only in his fourth year of professional baseball.
So what is it about Montero? For Montero, it’s really not about the stuff. Montero’s fastball is a plus pitch, but not because of velocity as it sits in the low 90’s, with the ability for Montero to push it to the mid-nineties in need. It’s because Montero has shown the ability to locate the fastball at will on either side of the plate and because it moves. Montero also possesses a solid changeup and slider, although neither pitch is a plus offering at this point in time. It’s Monetero’s control that has been his bread and butter so far. Montero only walked 102 batters in 434.1 minor league innings and although those numbers increased in his 44.1 major league innings in 2014, that can be attributed to an adjustment to the big leagues. Montero will learn to harness that, and when he does, he will be a dangerous major league pitcher.
So the upside for Montero is interesting. He’s not Martinez, but he could be one of these control oriented pitchers with solid stuff that has a long major league career as a mid-rotation arm. Montero is one of those pitchers that will be solid for most of his career, but have those one or two seasons in which he’s in the Cy Young discussion. At worst, Montero will be a plus bullpen arm who can rear back and get those extra few miles per hour out of his fastball in a short inning stint. In the end, he is a major league pitcher and that makes him a very valuable prospect. He might not make it to the Mets for 2015 (Troy Tulowitzki anyone), but if he does, he will be a valuable part of the teams big league pitching staff at some point in time in 2015.
For a confessed farm system junkie, I am probably as low on Brandon Nimmo as any fan here. Not that I don’t appreciate the progress he has make, or the work he has put in; I do. And I do expect him to have a career; it’s just the extent of the career where I differ with the crowd.
I remember the video of Nimmo at the Florida compound right after his signing, trying to make contact against lefthanded pitching. I think at one point he made contact with the ball once out of twenty swings; it wasn’t the sort of viewing experience one can easily forget or dismiss.
To date I understand that Nimmo has gone from dreadful to merely bad when facing the lefthanders. Consider: hitting lefty’s in not something one can assume Nimmo is going to figure out. The fact is, the contrary is more likely.
This seems to be a theme with the Mets in recent years; Nimmo or Duda or den Dekker or Kirk “are still learning to hit lefthanders.” Okay, we can hope for good outcomes, but is it realistic to expect them? Some guys with the weakness do improve; many do not.
I agree with you on Duda and Kirk, they are who they are, but it’s too early to tell with Nimmo. This guy didn’t play regular ball until 2012. The fact that his OPS against lefties has marginally improved is progress. We’ll see what happens this coming season.
Nimmo had no business being drafted that high; he would have been there in the second round. We have seen him struggle against better competition in various tournaments and games. Hopefully, he will put in the hours necessary to catch up and he seems to be the type that is willing to work hard and sign cheap (when he was drafted).
But, I wanted to write about Montero. The Mets seem to have a problem. On one hand, they like to go cheap waiting for their prospects to develop. On the other hand, they sign or use mediocre veterans that they play instead of playing their prospects to let them develop. Meaning, they use contradictory approaches. Colon and Gee should both be jettison to open a place for Montero. Flores should have played last year so we know what we have. And MDD or Kirk could have combined with Puello, or Mayberry if they didn’t believe in Puello, to see what these kids have.
With glacier-like urgency Akderson make decisions, but time doesn’t stop and the next crop of prospects will be available soon and a decision will need to be made on them. Shame that our manager is a mule that can’t recognize the value that a young player can bring with his energy to a team. And our GM doesn’t know when it’s time to let the kids play.
I almost lost it when Collins was quoted last year as saying “I don’t have time to be developing players”. He should have been fired within 5 minutes of uttering those words. It shows a complete and utter lack of understanding what he was supposedly trying to accomplish here the last 4 years.
Rob, did you really need to hear him say that? Hadn’t you seen his approach all this time?
Collins is a Fred Wilpon call and no one has any say to it. Collins has embarassed this team multiple times without any response.
Unfortunately Montero is in a numbers crunch and when his opportunity came deGrom outpitched him and he stuck instead. Montero is a major league starter and even though he may be a good piece for the bullpen I hope they keep him stretched out in Las Vegas as injury insurance. The starting pitching depth on the major league level and with Syndergaard ahead of him on the minor league depth chart makes one wonder if he will get at least 8 starts like 2014. The Mets could easlly trade a non minimum salaried starting pitcher and apply the money elsewhere.
I agree with you but other teams aren’t offing fair value for Gee, Niese or Colon. I like Alderson as a GM especially with the clowns who own the Mets.
Collins is 100% right on the money with his quote,” I don’t have time to be developing players”. What do you think the minor league system is for? Every player goes through the Mets minor league farm system are being developed by some of the the best minor league coaches around. When they make it to the big show nobody should need developing at that stage.
No coach is perfect but Collins last year somehow was able to will the Mets to a 79 & 84 record. Remember no Harvey, Parnell and Wright played hurt the majority of the year. The team had no offense or defensive at SS and now that I remember lost Largaras for 2 months.
Neil,
I admire your take on TC though I disagree with it. I believe that the Mets record last year (better than I would have predicted at the start) was at least partly a product of a very weak division (except for the Nats and the Mets were truly outclassed there) and guys like Duda, Lagares, JDG and the bullpen having better than expected seasons.
Any manager who stops being a teacher is not pulling his weight. TC should know better given his work experience. Part of TC’s problem is that he is managing scared. Insecurity drives him to play veterans and ignore the development of younger players. In the case of Flores it appears that Alderson ordered TC to play him even though it was a belated decision.
I also appreciate your defense of Collins, Neil. However when a team is rebuilding, developing players is a must. If he doesn’t have time for that, what did he have time for, because it wasn’t managing the bullpen well, or learning how to mix and match someone in the lead-off position.