In 2012, the Mets called up 23-year old Matt Harvey, who seemed to take the league my storm. Likewise, in 2013, 23-year old Zack Wheeler was called up to the big leagues and performed fairly well. These two call-ups gave fans faith that this team had strong starting pitching coming up through the pipelines. Even last season we saw the emergence of Jacob deGrom who ended up winning the Rookie of the Year award. This season already features a strong starting rotation, as deGrom, Harvey, Wheeler, Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese make up the top five slots. With Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero and others waiting, there have been rumors that the Mets will be trading some excess arms to acquire the big-named star player. The “centerpiece” of any deal seems to be top prospect Noah Syndergaard. This is the season when Syndergaard makes himself a household name.
Since he was 17 years old in the Toronto Blue Jays’ farm system, Syndergaard has always had the potential. His minor league K/9 is 10, and his ERA is 3.25. Even last season when he got tattooed throughout the season, Syndergaard’s stuff was evident by his 145 strikeouts in 133 innings. Even though it seems the Mets may be willing to trade him, Syndergaard could become an X-factor throughout the Mets’ season, if he is given the chance.
Starting off the 2015 season, Syndergaard will enter Spring Training and will be told that he has a chance to crack the starting rotation. Last year in Spring Training, he had an ERA of 5.19 in three appearances. Coming back with more seasoning, Syndergaard may be able to take a spot in the rotation, but it seems unlikely. The probable outcome is that he starts his season in Triple-A Las Vegas. Hopefully Noah recovers from last season and dominates Vegas right out of the gate. This is when things can get interesting.
As previously stated, the Mets have a surplus amount of arms for the starting rotation. It has been rumored that the Mets will install an innings limit on Matt Harvey this year, with a plan to use him in the playoffs. Syndergaard could be a spot starter in these circumstances, as he could travel with the Mets and then go back to Vegas. This would enable Syndergaard to pitch throughout the whole season, instead of going to the bullpen and then start games.
Although it may not be utilizing Syndergaard to his best ability, the bullpen is not a bad idea. Granted, the Mets have Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Bobby Parnell as the top three relievers, but Syndergaard may be able to help. This would be similar to what the Cardinals did with Adam Wainwright. As a 23-year old, Wainwright was called up to be apart of the bullpen in 2005, and then in 2006, he recorded three saves in the regular season, and closed games for them in the playoffs. This experience has been tremendous for Wainwright as he was used to pitching in a big game atmosphere before he became the ace for St. Louis. Now the Mets may not get this far, but the bullpen provides experience, and if the Mets make it to the playoffs, Syndergaard would be either their 4th starter, or a piece of the bullpen.
It is understandable to think that the Mets may still make a move for Troy Tulowitzki, as the acquisition may catapult the Mets into the top tier of the National League. However, Syndergaard’s potential is through the roof, and this could be the season where he takes off and emerges as one of the best young pitchers in the game. He is still only 22 years old, and another year of seasoning could be beneficial, but if the Mets intend on winning in 2015, it does not make much sense to keep Syndergaard down in the minors for the whole season.
Noah makes the starting rotation right out of Spring training.
I wager a cup of coffee it is so.
No trade.
No AAA
No way the Mets give up a year of control for 4 starts in April.
There is quite literally zero chance he is a part of the rotation right out of spring training. This is a team with excess pitching and very little playoff hope. Those two factors would suggest there is no reason to forfeit a year of player control on a high potential player.
Perhaps it’s not quite zero as “anything can happen.” I’d wager the odds of Syndergaard making the team out of ST is 3%. Because it’s possible they could trade Gee and Harvey could then suffer a setback…then you’re looking at a rotation of DeGrom, Wheeler, Niese, Colon with a spot open. Still, they’d likely try to make due for 5-6 weeks and then call up Syndergaard.
Thor will start the year in Vegas he will come up when Matt is rested probably in June and then Noah makes a big impact and sticks in the majors when matt comes back either by shifting to a 6 man rotation to stretch out Matt’s starts longer or by trading either Calon or Niece in a your need for my need kind of trade. In any case the emergence of thor make Calon or Jon expendable late in the year.
While everyone ask for thor in a deal the only way he moves is if you get a Young, affordable, Stud @ SS back for him. He dose not go in a Tylo deal John Heyman and his junk reporting aside.
Completely agree we should keep Thor. He’s not just the best Mets prospect. He’s one of the best in baseball. You don’t give that up, IMO.
He could be as good as Harvey. Is there any player in baseball you would trade Harvey for? And also have to pay that player a ton of money?
I really hope Thor stays with the Mets. The rotation would be the best in baseball.
Most comments about, how the Mets and Colorado, are to deal Thor for Tulo, has been Media’s venting for readers to keep accessing their sites for news, and updates. They may know, a little bit more than us Fans, but, When you looked at what Alderson& Co have been doing the last few years, does anyone of us really believe that he would trade Thor for Tulo, who has not been able to stay on the field for the last 3 years + $90 to $100 plus salary for the farm system that he built the last few years.
Simple answer – Nope
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I’d like to see Noah prove he can miss some bats in AAA– 154 hits in 133 IP this year did not fill me with confidence. Wouldn’t mind if he spent another full season in LV to get some seasoning, unless he dominates and makes it impossible to leave him there.
I think it’s tough for any pitcher to be dominant in PCL it’s just not conducive to pitching development. Balls that normally move straighten out in several stops in the PCL. For that reason i think his AAA numbers can be misleading. That problem plus the distance from the rest of your club infrastructure make me wish we were back east but there is not much we can do.
Conversely, he led the league in Ks, was second in K/9, and 2nd in K%-BB%. It’s easily arguable that he was the best pitcher in the PCL despite his middling (not bad) ERA. Breaking balls don’t break as much in the PCL and fastballs don’t move as much, either. Expect him to improve when he hits the big leagues, as Wheeler and deGrom both did.
Noah Syndergaard is a great talent and unless I see Addison Russell coming on the back swing of a deal I don’t want to see him traded. That being said if Syndergaard is in the Mets rotation this year for any amount of time it most likely isn’t a good thing for the Mets. He could dominate in ST and come out gang busters all season, but that is rather unlikely (especially because he will have an innings cap), and he could go to Vegas and demolish the league and then get a call up and do a deGrom imitation and win ROY, but that is probably wishful thinking as well.
The biggest probability of him being a factor in the rotation this year is that a couple of guys get injured, or a couple of guys are ineffective, neither scenario is good news for the parent Mets.
My hope is that he pitches very well in Vegas and merits a promotion, but that our ML starting pitchers are doing so well that he can’t break in till later in the year and then only as a bull pen arm. During his time in the pen he makes himself so invaluable that he gets added to the playoff roster and makes us a devastating staff 1 through 12 in 2015 and then he takes a spot in the regular rotation in 2016. This gives him the ability to pitch most of the year in Vegas honing his skills as a starter and continuing to help the parent club later without getting shut down because of some arbitrary innings limit.
As i have stated in other blogs here on mets 360 and as you have pointed out in your article Syndergaard highest amount of innings pitched as a starter was 133 last year in Vegas. So if he’s starting AAA next season how can you expect him to “help” when he’ll be probably capped at 160 innings? the bullpen may sound like a good idea but he’s been a starter for his career and do you risk an injury if he’s improperly used by TC? Then again if he’s ever used since Collins does not believe in using youth as an answer to winning. Let me see. If the Mets still have Gee on the roster, he’s not in your starting rotation? I wish you were my boss! Let Gee and his 5 million be a back up plan for the just in case the Mets need a spot starter? Somehow I think your idea for the Opening day 5 starters will not match the front office’s. James while Noah is starting and pitching in Las Vegas what does the front office do to limit his innings? Pitch 5 or 6 innings every 10 days? Are not starters creatures of habit who go through their ritual of exercises consistently every time to prepare for each start?
You raise a good point here Pete. I don’t know if Syndergaard will start in the opening day rotation, but I do believe at some point he will be called up. I know Collins gets a lot of flack for managing the bullpen, but I have seen other clubs be successful with turning starters into relievers, then back into starters. Granted there have been failures along the way with this thinking (Joba Chamberlain) but it could be a solution to keeping Syndergaard at his innings cap. Also, he could be used as a long reliever out of the bullpen. Someone else commented saying that Wheeler has had troubles pitching past the sixth inning, so Syndergaard could pitch an inning or two if Wheeler struggles, and could make spot starts for Harvey.
I’m not sure what to think of the starting rotation as of now. Is Gee even in the rotation as of now? Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Colon and Niese is what I would have down, and that’s without considering Montero or Syndergaard. I think Colon, Gee or Niese may be dealt before Spring Training comes, but we will have to wait and see.
I know it has been mentioned before but here goes:
If Noah and Montero are ready for the big time, why not pair them with Harvey and Wheeler?
Harvey is on a pitch/innings count and Wheeler has yet to prove he can go much beyond six innings. In the games that Harvey/Wheeler start use the other two exclusively to complete the games. For instance, on Harvey’s starts have say Noah also work on five days rest and do the same with Montero on the days that Wheeler pitches. Use your other five relievers to back up
Niese-deGrom-Colon.
This gives Noah and Montero big league experience while keeping them from being over-used.
As the season progresses alterations can be made given the chance of injuries, trades etc.
Not only is that thinking outside of the box Norme but “if” we had a manager who could think like you we would of been in the playoffs already! Brilliant and innovative idea!
3-2 game. Wheeler done after 6, you really want/gonna let Montero/Noah get the final 9 outs and not be tempted to use another reliever? What about if the SP is cruising and neither are needed? This isn’t spring training where you can plan outings for multiple guys in 1 game.
In a way my plan would combine Harvey and Thor because I’d leave him in Vegas until Harvey gets shut down for a few starts in June. This is pure gut feeling on my part but because Zac is so competitive I just think this may be his breakthrough year granted I have no state for that just a gut feeling.
Harvey could be skipped over every 8th start and get a 10 day vacation by skipping his final start before the All-Star break. In that way you can save innings for him if the Mets get to the playoffs. Syndergaard’s highest innings pitched thus far in his career is 133 innings at Vegas last year. You need to keep that information in the back of your mind if you’re going to make a plan with Thor in it. Using gradual increments which most major league teams use means that Syndergaard gets capped at about 160 innings in 2015. That comes out to 25 to 26 starts at 6+ innings per game. Why would you shut down Harvey in June just when the weather warms up for a few starts? So much depends on Harvey’s ability to get back into form and how long it takes him to build endurance on his shoulder during spring training.
An interview with TC suggested mid to late June Matt would go on the DL to be skipped and rested so he would be available for the playoffs I formulated my plan based on that information and the beliefe that around the same time Thor would be at his peek efficiency. So thats the place that came from
I wouldn’t put too much into what TC says regarding players and their health. He’s a bastion of disinformation SA uses from time to time.
I think you can only put players on the DL if they’re hurt.
the DL has a very charitable definition of Injured you could say he had a “Tired Arm” and DL him. but I will concede pete’s point that TC may just be misinformation which calls into doubt my plan however if it is accurate the DL rules would not be an issue
I think that raises more questions and concerns than simply going with a 6-man. A guy used to pitching 3 or 4 innings at a time will definitely have trouble getting stretched out to 7 or 8.
Syndergaard is one of the top pitching prospects, and while he is still only a prospect, he needs to be protected. A pitcher can come in at a young age and be effective, while a hitter usually needs a few years.
I don’t understand what the Mets are doing with players like Granderson, Cuddyer, Colon, and Gee still on their roster. But, while I realize the two hitters are going to be a ball and chain on this team, I’m optimistic that by winter’s end the Mets front office will clear space for Montero and ultimately Syndergaard.
The most important thing a front office can do is keep track of their youngsters to not make a mistake. Rarely does a team lose a player on the verge of contributing if that player seems to be pretty good. I remember Hanley Ramirez for Boston and Adrian Gonzalez for Texas. But, those are rare. Most often if a team developed a top player, they will keep him unless they see flaws like The Mets did with Petit or the Dodgers see in Pedro Martinez (how did that work out?). But, my point is they need to see flaws or perceived flaws in order to let a young player go. Otherwise, it’s a major screwup they regret for years.
Amen Gus! If a player never gets an opportunity to show what he can do at the major league level, then what’s the point of spending so much time and money to nurture the youngster just to give up on him?
He got shelled in AAA last year, why do people think he’s close to being electric in the big leagues? He’s just a prospect and one that didn’t look so good last year. I hope the scouts are right but right now he seems a bit over valued for what he’s done on the field.
I do not think that the majority of Mets Fans, thinks that he will be electric when he comes to Flushing. But to be realistic, Thor, is a given to be a good pitcher for years to come. He has the tools to be a good one. He’s learned last year at AAA, and that can only serves him well for when he is in Flushing, by August.
Alderson, is not one of those that will get rids of prospects that are so close to the model that he sets for, 4 years ago when he replaced Omar.
He will deal a Dillon Gee, a Montero, a lower level A player.
As a Mets fan for a long time, I cannot wait to see, a Harvey, Wheeler, and Thor performed in Queens Flushing for years to come. That does not happens very often. And I am sure, many other GM, have told him the same things for the last 3 years. Keep your Harvey, Wheeler, and Thor.
We are so used to, ” I want this now” Wait, be patient, and good things will come your way. Well guys, I think after 3 years, that day has finally come.
Let’s Go Mets. Let’s go Harvey, Wheeler, DeGrom, and later Thor during the hot summer months~
Well put The Dim. The potential has always been there, and last year may have been an off year. Could be a blessing in disguise as well, since there were many struggles along the way, Syndergaard knows what it will take to bounce back and be successful, whether in AAA or the MLB. We don’t know if he will become one of the best pitchers in the game, but I think he will be a solid addition to the rotation when the time comes.
Syndergaard had a .378 BABIP in Vegas last year, which is .045 higher than his previous career high, so that’s unlikely to be repeated. While his ERA was 4.60, his FIP was nearly a run lower, 3.70. He let up a few too many homers, but it’s Vegas, so that’s to be forgiven. His K/BB was still great. I understand your concern, but I think those worries are overblown. He’s ranked higher on prospect lists than he was a year ago after a “bad” season, so that should tell you what analysts think of Vegas stats.
I’m all for Thor starting in Vegas, and being called up to spot start on West Coast trips and rest Harvey. I do think he could come in late in the season and help the bullpen out, with this rule tattooed on Collins forehead, “He cannot pitch back to back games.” Personally I keep it to once every four games. If the pen can make up for Rice’s finicky usage rules for two years, than can save Thor for half a season.
Also, that FIP was the 2nd lowest in the PCL.
PCL is like pitching in Colorado 2/3 the time It’s one of the major reasons I hate having our affiliate out there. so numbers alone don’t tell the story. He has the stuff to be very successful. I think thats a big reason every team wants him in every deal.
If Harvey pitches 150 innings and he is limited to 6-7 innings a start then he starts 21-25 times. That means that for every two starts he would skip one start based on 32 starts in a rotation during the course of a season.
If the Mets tagged Syndergaard with Harvey and every 5th time in the rotation one would pitch 6 innings and the other would piggy back the final 3 innings then both would have 16 starts = 96 innings and 16 relief innings = 48 innings for a total of 144 innings and both would be rested for the playoffs. The bullpen would be rested every 5th also. Finally, no I don’t believe this will happen.
Instead, the Mets will probably shuttle Syndergaard as the spot starter between Las Vegas and New York unless there is an injury to a starter and he gets an opportunity that way.
But what happens when and if Noah hits his innings limit? Which may be about 160? Knowing how this brain trust functions (or dysfunctions) Noah could be done by mid August even if he’s left in Las Vegas at the start of the season.
We might be looking back at a trade away of Syndergaard as we look back at the Nolan Ryan trade ? I think we could live with Flores at S/S just to keep Sydergaard in our rotation for years to come.
Only problem James is Noah is a starter and as a starter you get 4 days to rest your shoulder. TC has a tendency to burn out whoever is hot in the bullpen. I don’t want to see another Familia fiasco happening again if it’s preventable. Limit Syndergaards starts in Las Vegas to 6 innings max. When the Mets shut down Harvey for the All-Star break is when the team should insert Noah into the rotation and take it from there. Maybe by then Colon gets traded? That is if he’s still here..