It’s unusual to see a player make a transformation similar to the one that lefty-swinging Curtis Granderson has undergone in his performance versus lefty pitchers. Early in his career, Granderson experienced limited success versus southpaws. But in the second half of his career he’s handled them quite well. Last year he had a .742 OPS versus LHP compared to a .703 mark versus RHP.
It’s interesting to see how pitchers attack Granderson. Often times it’s not readily apparent watching on television what a pitcher is trying to do versus a certain hitter. But in the first year of watching Granderson on a daily basis, it was easy to see that LHP were going away whenever they could. Let’s look at it in a Brooks Baseball chart broken down by location
There are 25 areas in this chart and in the four boxes of the extreme lower left, LHP threw the ball 37% of the time. This makes sense, as you can easily imagine a southpaw trying to get the lefty Granderson chasing on a breaking ball low and away. But even if you just look at the hard pitches thrown by lefties, which you can filter for if you go to Brooks Baseball, you see them attacking that same small area 21% of the time.
The conventional way to attack hitters is to go either low and away or up and in. Now a lefty is unlikely to use breaking balls to attack up and in on a hitter. But when we limit it to the hard stuff, southpaws attacked Granderson up and in just 8% of the time. Clearly, the book on Granderson for lefties is to go away, away, away.
And the odd thing about this is when it works, it works great. Granderson struck out 49 times in 155 ABs against southpaws last year. While it’s hard to look great while striking out, Granderson would look particularly inept while whiffing against lefties.
You hear stories about old time players who would intentionally strike out on pitches in certain locations in non-crucial times of the game to ensure that they would get that same pitch when the game was on the line. Then, at least according to legend, Joe Slugger would then turn on that pitch which was really where he liked to hit the ball. It almost feels that way with Granderson and lefties.
When he put the ball in play versus southpaws, Granderson had a .310 BABIP versus LHP last year. He also did very well in the power department, with .168 ISO and 7 HR. In the National League last year, the average lefty ISO was .103 versus LHP.
So, how did Granderson go from being poor against LHP to being better than average? It’s hard not to notice that the transformation came when he went from the Tigers to the Yankees. In his last year in Detroit, Granderson had a .484 OPS versus southpaws. In his first year in the Bronx, that mark jumped up to .647 and the following year it was a .944 mark. He’s been over .700 in each of the following three years after the tremendous season in 2011.
One explanation could be the simple maturation of an above-average MLB hitter. Another might be the friendlier hitting environment moving from Detroit to New York. A third possible explanation is that his coaches in New York were able to help him with a way to attack southpaws.
In his last year with the Tigers, Granderson hit .168 (19-113) versus four-seam fastballs and sinkers from lefties. The following year with the Yankees, Granderson hit .321 (34-106) against those hard offerings from southpaws. Last year with the Mets, Granderson hit .306 (26-85) against those pitches. For whatever reason, Granderson went from being helpless against hard stuff from LHP to being able to handle them with aplomb.
As you probably already know, the Mets hired Kevin Long to be their new hitting coach. Long was Granderson’s hitting coach his entire tenure with the Yankees and Granderson has been open about his appreciation for Long’s assistance. It will be interesting to see if Long can have a similar impact on other lefty batters for the Mets, specifically Lucas Duda.
Last year Duda had just a .516 OPS versus southpaws and in his career, he’s posted a .610 OPS against LHP. In 2014, Duda hit .217 (13-60) against hard stuff from southpaws. It will be interesting to see how he fares against them this upcoming season. If Duda starts regularly hitting .300 versus hard stuff from lefties, it will be an indication that Long was able to help him like he helped Granderson, who has batted .304 versus hard stuff from lefties since 2010.
Thanks for this, Brian.
I wonder if you could comment on Granderson’s astronomical stats batting 5th or 6th in 2014 (1.030 OPS, more RBI’s than K’s, etc.) The batting order station correlation with his hot streaks might be just the vagaries of randomness, but it was about 20% of his AB’s.
Terry mentioned batting him 2nd (& Murph 6th…ugh), but I kinda like a Wright-Duda-Cuddyer-Granderson sandwich between slices of Murphy & Travis.
That’s the type of thing you want to see over several seasons before being swayed by it. In his career, Granderson has an .869 OPS batting second, easily the best mark of any lineup spot. He has a .798 OPS batting fifth and sixth, albeit in about half of the PA combined as he has in the second spot.
Some players swore by him, others hated him (most notably Jeter) the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. The fact remains that you have to go back a generation to find a Yankees lineup as inept as the one he worked on. Was it the players or the coach?
Take this for what it’s worth coming from a Mets fan who saw fewer than 10 Yankees games all year in 2014. But my impression of the Yankee hitters last season was that the best hitting coach of all time couldn’t have done anything with that group.
Of course, that doesn’t mean Long’s a good coach. He could stink, too.
Granderson had a disappointing 2014 season with his OPS dropping 101 points and his slugging dropping 89 points from his career average. It would be great to see him recover about 70% of that and hopefully the hiring of Long will help. It would also be great if Long can help Duda but I hope TC starts the year giving Mayberry the platoon at bats. TC doesn’t rest his players enough to begin with and he “forces the issue” instead of putting them in a position to succeed. Playing Duda every day would be a “forced issue” just as batting Lagares lead off instead of Murphy vs RHP would be another “forced issue”.
He’s also aging, so it’s not surprising he would hit worse.
Sorry guys the only transformation I saw in Granderson is that he went from playing 120+ games a season in American league bandboxes known as Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park and Camben Yards and hitting 40 HR’s. To playing 120+ games at Citifield , the Marlins cavern and the spacious Nationals park and becoming a 20 HR a year guy. Nothing else changed he is still the same 220 to 230 hitter he has been for four seasons now. He still SO with the best of the whiffers. The only difference is he has to play in a real ball park now. And as far as I am concerned moving in the fences is just smoke and mirrors by the front office hoping that they don’t have to admit in public the monumental mistake they made with the precious few dollars they had to spend.
The Mets came out with these inflated numbers that we would hit umpteen more HR’s last year with the new fence configuration, and that Granderson would have hit 9 more. Well Mark Simon of ESPN stats did an independent study and his showed we as a team would have only hit 7 more HR’s total in 81 games and the opposition would have hit 4 more. That is a net total gain of 3 HR’s in 81 games. It means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of an 81 game home schedule. Just another stab in the dark and a waste of money on top of wasted money on a player they never should have signed.
Great article Brian! This is more proof that the Mets should get a better year out of Granderson in 2015. Players in decline don’t have improved play against lefties along with lower strike out rates and higher walk rates. His overall numbers were pulled down by and atrocious start to the season and a cold streak in August. In the 400 plus plate appearances outside of those months he was an 800 plus OPS player and hit over 280.
You cannot discount the impact and pressure of signing a major deal…the expectation of adding punch to a lineup that is quickly diminished by the loss/non performance of big pieces in the lineup.
Grandy was a little exposed by big holes in his approach last year… and he over pressed. Otherwise, he looked healthy. I believe we’ll see a substantial recovery—- 85 plus rbi, and an ops at 750-800.
My take on Long is that he’s a professional — but he likes the spotlight.
I fully expect that soon after someone gets hot, we’ll see him quoted at length in a long piece about how he helped that hitter.
It was an aspect about the Mets much-discussed “approach” that I disliked. They made it about Hudgens and statistical analysis rather than the players.
It’s not a characteristic I trust, frankly, but I really can’t argue with the hire.
Will Duda get an opportunity to do what you think he can do Brian with Cuddyer here?
My initial take is that Cuddyer will probably stay in the OF on “RH Lineup Days”….Mayberry will do swing work in OF and 1b. Not sure whether they can add another RH bat for platoon— the LH bench bat that can play CF (dd, Newee) makes for more fledxibility and provides for more situations. I believe they’ll choose either Grandy or Duda to sit versus “tough lefties”—usually, not both.
Wondering where this puts Puello..??? I am truly frustrated at the approach with both Puello and Flores last year. Neither received the play to further define their bats. Flores is still a question with the bat…much less the glove. Puello lost ab’s to AAAA filler fodder. Argh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You mean the consummate hitter Abreu I and Abreu II in September?
Cuddyer is Duda-level awful in the outfield. If they miss a chance to move him to 1B or DH, it’s a mistake. Mayberry is a decent corner OF who gets exposed when asked to play CF.
As for Puello, it will be interesting to see if another team claims him since he won’t be on the 25-man roster. I know he was dealing with some injuries earlier in 2014 but when he played he was not good. He did much better later in the year but you still have to remove the LVG and PCL air from his numbers. Once you do that, they’re not anything special.
Isn’t Cuddyer going to play RF and Granderson moving to left? Hopefully Lagares stays healthy enough to play 150+ games in CF with MDK relieving him on the occasional day off. I was wondering the effects of having Cuddyer play 130 games in right field at Citifield? Cross your fingers and hope for the best?
I think Cuddyer in RF is the plan.
It’s optimistic to expect Cuddyer to play 130 games, period. In everything in regards to him (outside of the batter’s box), it’s cross your fingers and hope for the best.
Fantastic article and great comments from everyone. When Granderson was signed, there was some fluff piece about how Kevin Long did certain batting exercises with Granny that helped him improve on hard stuff in. Can’t remember the specifics, but I do remember Granderson looking more comfortable than I would have thought on those pitches. If Long’s presence can simply make Granderson look in on those pitches more, and avoid lunging out of the zone like we saw time after time, then his being hitting coach should be worth it. I don’t think Granny is going to hit above .245 or so, but that’s still a .025 jump in average, and nothing to sneeze at. If those exercises help Duda against lefties as well, I’d be ecstatic.
It’s tough to find an “outstanding stat” on Grandy that would isolate his production drop in 2014. The biggie is BABIP splits versus LHP and RHP.
Grandy’s career BABIP versus RHP is .310….2014 was .250. BTW. Versus LHP, he upped his BABIP…?????
There is a big “luck component” to this…on the other hand, it’s also an easy assumption to say that he just looked bad alot last year. However, guys who have lifetime K rates of 25% look bad alot!!!
The first half overall BABIP is about 280—2nd half is about 250….. I believe this is partly luck—it’s also cause for concern based on his ability to manage and produce good ab’s—again, he often looks bad—so what are we actually seeing????
I don’t love the guy as a player, but he looks healthy…and he’s removed from his 2013 injury and down time. I expect a bounce back. His career BABIP is .300. His last year was .265. Add 35 points to all of his numbers and he brings you right back to his “norm”…. discount park factors, etc….. I see a nice year for him,…his “baseball card”.