The last time the Mets were in the playoffs the core players were the likes of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, and a young David Wright. Backed by a pitching contingency of Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, and Billy Wagner. The team that made it to the NLCS in 2006 is a very different team than the one poised for 2015. The two youngest players on that team were Wright and Reyes who at the time, Wright had already had a season with a batting average over .300 and more than 100 RBIs. Reyes already had led the league in triples and stolen bases and had a season with a .300 batting average. They were star players at the time and they were surrounded by a bunch of seasoned veterans having career years with Beltran hitting 41 home runs and Delgado not too far behind with 38 and Paul Lo Duca filling in nicely in the hole left by Mike Piazza. By the end of the season the lineup was filled with all-stars with the only players to not have been selected at some point in their careers were Jose Valentin and Endy Chavez, who was more a fourth outfielder that filled in a lot. The pitching was nothing to laugh at either with the mix of veterans and some younger guys that had some experience under their belts. That team was a force to be reckoned with winning 97 games, but can the 2015 Mets catch some magic in a different light this season?
The Mets starting lineup on Opening Day will likely have three players who have not played a full major league season yet, Juan Lagares with the most games played in a season at 121 and managed to win a gold glove in 116 last year. The other two being Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores who both show signs of breaking out, but need to provide results this season to silence critics. The rotation has young inexperienced players as well with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom only having pitched about a season and Zack Wheeler about a season and a half. It feels like most of these players have been around a lot longer, but Harvey made his debut in 2012, and deGrom last year, and the other four debuted in 2013. The oldest among them is deGrom at the age of 26 and all six of these players are in key roles for the 2015 team, which could be a very good thing or a very bad thing. For the Mets to do well these kids need to perform well. The rest of the team needs to step up as well, but the success of the team really hinges on these six performing at high levels. Lagares needs to show he is more than a defensive only player, Flores needs to convince people his bat belongs in a lineup with his serviceable defense, and d’Arnaud needs to bring his bat from the second half of last year and sure up his defense. The three young starters still have to prove that they have what it takes with Harvey coming back from Tommy John surgery, Wheeler’s high pitch counts, and deGrom avoiding a sophomore slump.
The rest of the lineup and rotation is more easily predictable about what they will produce. Predicting exactly the numbers is near impossible, but the type of players and the type of production that the Mets are going to get out of these guys is easier than the younger players. Who knows what Wright will do after a down year last year with shoulder problems and will the fence moving in help Curtis Granderson be the player that the Mets hoped he would be? Granderson will get on base and Lucas Duda will hit home runs and Murphy will float around .300 or at least close to as he did for most of last season until he got injured. Whoever ends up in the back end of the rotation whether it be Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, or Bartolo Colon, they will go out there every fifth day and give the team a chance to win the game. The bullpen looks to be in good shape with the Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia anchoring the bullpen after breakout years last year and the eventual return of Bobby Parnell. Bullpens can also be very fragile and be hit or miss year to year luckily the Mets have a young pitching stockpile that can step in if needed.
Trying to compare the 2006 Mets to this team is like trying to compare apples and oranges. They are two completely different animals. Omar Minaya had a few young guys and brought in a lot of established talent to surround them, while Sandy Alderson has been grooming these young players for years waiting for the time that they are ready to perform in the majors and have a few veterans on the team to show them how it is done. The Mets are poised to be in the running for the second place slot in the NL East with the Miami Marlins with the Washington Nationals being the favorite for the division. The Mets could very well make a run at a Wild Card spot this season. That could be tough though with a few teams eyeing up those spots. The Padres made a whirlwind of trades, the Cubs are hoping their young stars can prove the the twenty six year prediction true, the Pirates are looking for a third playoff year in a row, and the Giants are trying to prove that they can win in an odd year after the loss of third baseman, Pablo Sandoval. The opportunity for the Mets to compete is there and they have the talent that could take them far. They are finally done rebuilding and ready for the limelight of the Big Apple again.
The Mets have a lot of questions for next year? Comparing this team to the 2006 team is unfair. The only player the Mets have with the ability to hit over 30 home runs is Duda. I can see David having a good season. But I do not feel the same about Granderson or Cuddyer. I’m strongly optimistic about the Mets pitching, but that is another thing that has to be proven, and I believe they are right in not moving pitchers at this point.
I expect them to compete…no sneaking about it
If everything breaks right and there are very few injuries they could sneak in. Just like 90% of the teams in baseball. But I seriously doubt this is an over 90 win team. The goal after all this losing seems to be sustainable mediocrity.
The thing about the National League, as it stands now, is that there are four top dogs: Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, and the Pirates. The Mets have shown at times that they can compete against the Cardinals and Pirates, but struggle against the Dodgers and Nationals.
Then there are teams in the middle like the Mets, Brewers, Marlins, Padres, and Reds. Then there are two teams a year or two away: Cubs and Giants. Beyond them, there are a few teams in rebuilding mode: Rockies, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and the Braves. The only two teams that will serve trouble for the Mets in this group are the Marlins and Brewers.
I see the Mets making a serious run at a wild-card spot, and even the division if the Nationals pull their 2013 skit.
The Giants are 2 Years away?
Probably more, I honestly don’t see them making the playoffs any time soon. They barely made it in 2014 and only were able to keep their composure because Bumgarner put up filthy numbers. They lost their big postseason bat, and don’t exactly have the farm system to push in new players. They might have some bats left over (Posey, Belt, Pence) but their offense is below average. Their pitching is nowhere near what it was. The Giants ended their incredible dynasty in 2014.
If they don’t sneak into the playoffs then they better sneak out of town! Seriously, the 4 years of losing came with the promise of a contending team so the expectations were set. The Mets should be ready and prepared to start the season as an expected playoff team not as a surprise team. If the Mets believe that they need to sneak in then they have more work to do before April in order to fulfill their promise.
G:116 AB:416 R:46 H:117 2B:24 3B:3 HR:4 RBI:47 BB:20 K:87. SB: 13 CS:4
.281 .321 .382 .703
G:146 AB:540 R:44 H:132 2B:18 3B:4 HR:7 RBI:46 BB:32 K:60 SB:4 CS:5
.244 .286 .331 .617
I’m getting tired of everyone banging on Juan Lagares. Look at the above lines. The first one is Lagares. The second one is Adrelton Simmons, the supposed best shortstop in baseball. Both play superb/other world defense. Who would you rather have?
I feel certain that if Simmons played for the Mets, fans would be saying we need to get Flores in there for some offense. This is not intended for you Tyler, but I’m tired of reading how this guy isn’t good offensively – everywhere I turn. He may still be improving, but from Blair to Ozzie to Maddux to Brooks the defensive wizards that hit low in the batting order, were appreciated for what they did, not what they didn’t do.
+1
Don’t forget Buddy Harrelson
This needed to be said. His numbers, in 2014, in clutch situations are actually off the charts for the type of player he is. Let me rattle off a few stats:
With RISP: .296/.330/.429 slash line
With two outs: .289 batting average
With two outs and RISP: .298 batting average
Innings 7-9: .270 batting average
Tied Games: .826 OPS
Game within one run: .296/.344/.413 slash line
Two strikes: .242 average (actually quite solid)
We are not expecting big power numbers from this guy, as he is defined as the “all glove, no bat” player. But he has the potential to hit .300 a couple of times. And lets not forget: he will only 26 this year.
Nicely done Julian!
Lagares will fine at the plate, and like you pointed out Julian, he’s up to the task. I also think he’ll hit for more power. His hands are quick inside, and he’s shown he can drive the ball .
He may hit for more power, but the Mets do not really need him to. They need him to get on base and and put himself in scoring position.
Fact is that A Simmons will need to hit more to keep playing….617 makes you a 2 inning SS, not a 9 inning SS. Lagares will need to hit as well…he’s got a chance.
It’s not such an easy comparison to Brooks and Garry Maddux—Maddux was a .285 hitter with 1800 hits. Like Maddux, Robinson played in a low offensive Era, so the translation is not quite direct……but he had 1400 RBI, over 250 HRs and almost 500 doubles. He was a substantial middle order offensive player.
As for Ozzie, he made himself a pretty good offensive player—Good parallel for Simmons
While the 2014 Mets had some bad luck in Wright getting hurt and had some people performed as expected, let’s see how many people surpassed expectations.
Duda: No one knew he would hit 30 bombs, we probably would have been happy with 18 and called it a new career high. But having never played full time, what if he bombed?
D’Arnaud: Had a very good second half. What if he didn’t? Plenty of first year players, namely catchers, struggle.
DeGrom: That was a pleasant surprise, eh?
Mejia: Took the closer’s role and ran with it, despite a hernia.
Familia: Was a reliable late innings guy that replaced the veterans these clowns keep trying to resuscitate.
These five guys produced well over expectations, what if they regress? And before you ask, what about CY and Granderson, they had bad years? The truth is they performed according to model expectations. The only increase we can hope for is Granderson to reach the .268 batting average that he had batting outside the top two spots, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for those missing nine home runs. So guess where Collins’ lineup has Granderson? Just hearing the name Collins makes me consider taking blood pressure medication.
So, if the Mets don’t continue their good fortune and rather have some tough luck, 79-83 is quite possible once more.
Exactly right Gus.
Unfortunately, too many folks have accepted the notion of “sneaking in” the back door rather than building a truly quality team. That’s today’s MLB playoff structure: the Mets dream of getting to game 163 and the Wilpons achieve their vision of meaningful tickets sold in September. What’s TC’s pet phrases? They want to be “in the mix.” Be still my heart.
One certitude that keeps being repeated is about the strong pen. I have real concerns. I really wish they added a quality arm to that mix instead of taking the winter off (as my friend Mike informs me, it’s been 567 days since Sandy Alderson made a trade). I like at the injury history of Mejia, Familia, Edgin, Black, and now Parnell, and I combine that with a manager who appears clueless when it comes to the bullpen, and I’m not making assumptions that it’s all going to be smooth sailing. There’s wonderful talent in that pen, but very little veteran experience of guys who know how to manage their health through a grueling season.
And if Cuddyer goes down — which is more “probable” than “possible” — it’s hard to see how the club will have made an improvement.
It’s too early to predict wins, but the best thing the Mets have going for them is not one but two teams in their division intentionally tanking it for the 2015 season. That’s a rare opportunity. 38 games against teams that aren’t trying to win. I wish our Mets would be more aggressive in going for it, frankly.