Over the past few months trade rumors have surfaced repeatedly about the Mets #1 minor league pitcher, Noah Syndergaard, being shipped off in order to upgrade the shortstop position. Most likely, this deal would see Syndergaard going to Colorado with Troy Tulowitzki coming to New York. There are several reasons to both love and hate this deal, but the centerpiece of the trade from the Mets perspective is the loss of Syndergaard. That would be an intolerable vacancy.
To start, Syndergaard will be just 22 years old in 2015, and has several years of inexpensive control still ahead of him. As Triple-A pitching coach Frank Viola suggested of Syndergaard, he is a #2 or #3 starter right now, and he has plenty of room to improve his changeup command to go with this plus fastball and plus curveball. His 2014 was not great by some standards, but he did lead the Pacific Coast league in strikeouts, and maintained an excellent K/BB ratio. His elevated BABIP and low FIP suggest he was much better than his high ERA reported. And considering he played in a hitter-friendly park, in a hitter-friendly league, those stats weigh a little bit more. This all suggests that Syndergaard has room to grow into becoming an ace.
If it was just about Syndergaard’s progression, it might be worth dumping him to improve the team immediately. However, Tulowitzki doesn’t seem like the right kind of bet. Granted, if he is healthy Tulowitzki could carry this team deep into the playoffs and possibly even a championship. But while the Mets showed lots of potential to improve last season, they still were a losing ballclub, and one player usually doesn’t a catapult a team to victory. Instead, what Syndergaard offers is a chance for the Mets to have one of the best young rotations in baseball, and could have for some time to come.
Matt Harvey is coming back from Tommy John surgery, but will have had a healthy 18 months to fully recover. This Newsday article illustrates the likelihood that he can return to glory moving forward. Zack Wheeler took strides last year, and showed tremendous velocity to go along with a full year of starts, which is nothing to gloss over. All Jacob deGrom did was win Rookie of the Year honors with a sensational first season, and FakeTeam suggests he may be able to duplicate those wonderful numbers. Add in that Jon Niese has been underrated as a legitimate #2 or #3 starter for some time now, and you have a rotation full of #1s, #2s and #3s. That’s the makings of possibly the most dominant rotation in baseball for the next several years.
This rotation could even be kept together even longer if money not spent on Tulowitzki, and as money tied up in veterans comes off the books in a couple of years, were used to lock up these young arms. Granted, we might not be able to keep all of them. Let’s say Harvey moves on, as many suspect he will want a dollar amount the Mets can’t match. Having Syndergaard in the fold would make that much easier to tolerate, by most accounts.
Of course, all would have to go well for the Mets to keep these young hurlers together. But aren’t we banking on an oft-injured 30+ shortstop in a return deal? And we’d have to give up our security blanket in Rafael Montero, Dillon Gee, and maybe even Steven Matz and some young position players, to even come close to what Colorado is asking for. The price is just too high. Harvey has already proven a possible Cy Young candidate, and there is potential for deGrom and Wheeler to be in that discussion sooner rather than later. If Syndergaard does live up to his potential, the Mets would have four huge weapons that literally no other team in the majors has; all under affordable team control. But not forever.
Getting better often means taking risks, including dealing away young prospects to receive proven veteran talent. In the case of the 2015 Mets though, that one player who might come over is not worth multiple years of fantastic rotation stability, and minor league farm strength. The Mets have legitimate outfield defensive substitutes that can make up for the failings of the aging starters late in games, and they have well-touted prospects coming up very soon to replace when necessary. There are also a few young defensive-minded infielders coming through the system that could help make the Mets much safer up the middle than they assume to be next year. As pitching and defense are often what win championships (yes, hitting is important too), the Mets are primed to be a force to be reckoned with in the National League. Trading Syndergaard betrays that strategy, something Sandy Alderson and his team have been working toward for years beneath heavy scrutiny. It would be a shame to throw away part of that plan now, when the horizon is so very close.
As Hannibal used to say on the A-Team, “I love it when a plan comes together.” Grab a stogie Alderson, and keep Syndergaard in your back pocket, because he is a major part of the plan.
If and that’s a big if the Mets were to make a “major” upgrade via a trade at SS you have to give up something of value in order to get back something of value. The less the Rockies are inclined in eating a portion of Tulo’s salary the lesser the prospect(s). But what if Colorado says they are willing to eat 20 million? What then?
Not enough Pete. You have heard this before from me, I am a Tulo fan, but I cannot risk on him. He is going to be 30, and he reminds me of Garciaparra. Colorado is nuts expecting a big package in return.
Let me ask you point blank: Who would you rather have Tulo or Josh Donaldson? They are similar ages, but Donaldson is half the price and Toronto gave up two nice prospects but not studs, and two MLB projected pitchers, but not studs. Why should the Mets give up Thor for a player that’s as good as Donaldson but we can’t expect him to play more than five months at most?
For me to trade Syndergaard, the player returning is going to be around for a few years and reliable because although Syndergaard is not a sure thing, I’d rather have the time frame than a player that injuries may force out soon.
Gus I would probably take Donaldson simply because the Wilpons could afford him financially. So 150+ games for Donaldson over 120? ( I know wishful thinking) games for Tulo. But if the Wilpons had the financial ability to put a team on the field for 110-120 million I’d be all in for Tulo. Being realistic I know Tulo is not coming here. But each passing day teams in need of an upgrade are dwindling. It appears the Yankees are signing Drew. So the Rockies are running out of options if they want to make a deal.
At this point, it’s not Noah Syndergard plus for Tulowitzki. At this point it’s a 1 for 1 swap that the Mets (wisely) won’t do. New York (rightfully) wants money off of Tulowitzki’s contract. This is where additional prospects come in, but the Mets would not be trading Syndergaard, Montero, Gee and Matz in one trade. This grouping of players (to my best guess) is something you’ve made up as Colorado’s mythic demands. There is a steep difference between trading your top prospect and trading 3 of your top 10.
If Colorado is willing to eat part of Tulowitzki’s money then the Mets should totally trade Syndergaard.
Dave,
Both links below offer some combination of Syndergaard plus a host of other players in a deal to Tulo. This one, “Syndergaard, Matz, Dillon Gee and Juan Lagares for Tulowitzki and $30-40 million” especially, had my jaw dropping. Plus others that include Syndergaard and Wheeler or deGrom, and other position players are just insane.
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mlb-insiders-set-fair-value-for-troy-tulowitzki/
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/12/21/new-york-mets-rumors-price-for-troy-tulowitzki-trade-must-come-down/
The problem with the Mets philosophy is that they have great pitching, but not enough of the other two aspects of the game to be successful. If they great pitching and defense, they could win with light hitting. If they had a big time offense and top pitching, they could win with bad defense. They have average, at best, hitting and defense.
If you trade Syndergaard plus for Tulowitzki, you’ve maintained your pitching (as great a prospect as he is, he’s still a prospect) and now upgraded the lineup and the defense. Even if he only plays 120 games, he automatically makes this team a contender.
Let’s face it, Syndergaard is only making an impact in 2015 in the case of an injury to a starting pitcher or a whole bunch of trades, which would indicate another lost season.
As long as they don’t have to totally gut their system, trading Syndergaard for Tulowitzki is what needs to be done.
The biggest issue for me is Tulo’s health. I believe that the player lives up to their baseball card stats in most cases. There is one very, very alarming stat in Tulo’s resume, his health. He has played 91,126 and 47 games in his last three seasons at Colorado. He finished last season on the D.L., and he is recovering from hip surgery. If he were a healthy Tulo, he would be worth a mountain of cash and a pair of top prospects. This player would join Wright, Granderson and Cuddyer as talented players ready to blow a gasket at any minute. There is the potential for one of the worst trades of all time in some of the trade scenarios. I’ll take patience this Winter over impulsiveness. The Mets have infield depth right below the surface with Herrerra and Matt Reynolds on the cusp. Let’s break .500 this year and take it all in 2016!
Patrick,
I like your thinking on this issue, especially with regards to Harvey. If he stays healthy the Mets are going to lose him. I don’t want to see him go, but such is life in the post-Madoff era.
Perhaps, down the road, the Mets could use him as the centerpiece in a blockbuster deal to bring in top player to fill in a position that they need to be a contending team. At this time he still has to regain his ability to be a #1.
With the hoped ascendancy of Noah and Matz along with the continued growth of Wheeler and JdG, perhaps trading a healthy Harvey before he reaches free agency is a possibility. I don’t want to lose him for a draft pick.
Great article. Love the homage to the A-Team. I highly doubt that the Mets will part ways with Syndergaard unless they have a sure thing coming back and Tulo is hardly a sure thing. Syndergaard is just too highly coveted and rightly so.
1) If the Mets can get Tulo for Syndergaard and the Rockies will eat salary (and that’s a BIG IF) the Mets have to take that deal. They’d be crazy not to. That is the “Gary Carter” move that puts them in the playoffs.
2) As for the future of the Mets we can only hope the new commissioner of baseball will ask the Wilsons to kindly leave due to their recent shady deals.
Great article, Patrick. You’ve laid out all the reasons I don’t want to trade Noah.
Syndergaard is not just the best pitcher in the Mets system, he’s one of the top prospects in baseball. You can’t go solely by his overall stats last year. Something clicked later in the season and he became dominant.
You can’t trade a player like that. He could easily become as good as Harvey. So would you trade Harvey for Tulo? Of course, not. Is there any player in baseball you would trade Harvey for (one-for-one)? And remember, that player will be great, so he’ll be making a ton of money.
Taking that into account, would you trade a very inexpensive (for a few more years) Harvey for anyone in baseball? Not me.
That’s another reason you don’t trade Syndergaard.
I’d do it in a second.
Even if Harvey weren’t hurt, there are probably a couple position players i’d trade Harvey 1-1 for. Now that he’s hurt, there are probably a dozen position players worth trading him for.
Just off the top of my head…(and without considering contract)
Tulo, Stanton, Goldschmidt, McCutchen, Posey, Trout, Donaldson i’d do in a second.
Adam Jones, Kyle Seager, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Miguel Cabera, Jose Bautista i’d consider as well
None of those players would realistically come over in a 1-1 trade for any pitcher in the game, except maybe Kershaw. IMO
Luckily, we won’t have to worry about Harvey leaving until 2018. If they put a couple of pennants under his belt between now and then, he may not be in such a hurry to chase the buck, despite whatever Boras might be whispering in his ear.
Assuming Harvey leaves in 2018, don’t we want to trade him after 2016?
…and now the march to understand that the candle burns from both ends. If Harvey matters to us, and as the only arm with genuine ace (not just SP1) on the staff, it should be clear why we no longer have the time to faff around trying to figure out if Flores is good enough, or if TdA will learn to catch a ball, or if Murph will ever play 2B on the actual infield dirt instead of short RF. There clearly is not a window more than a couple years long to bring together all the best talent, and so it makes one wonder why it took years to sort out Ike v Duda, why we havent had a shortstop since Reyes left, why the outfield has been a joke. I simply do not see the fierce urgency of now. With the Phillies and Braves on the shelf at least for a little bit, youd think we would see a real push to get to October instead of hearing about how long it takes to rebuild the pen.
Charlie can you name me one of SB’s client who left money on the table? Harvey if he comes back to form and has 3 – 4 solid years and makes the Mets winners again is going to be asking for at the very least 5 years and 110 -125 million. As salaries for aces continue to escalate that figure may even be to low. The front office “asking” Harvey to tone it down and seek permission from them on who and when he can talk with in the media is an embarrassment and a thorn in his side that he will not forget.
Excellent piece. Bottom line is you can never have enough pitching. Add to the fact that the greatest commodity in all of baseball are young power arms, and I would agree–you don’t trade Thor…unless you are blown away.
One thing I would ask everyone to consider–last year 9 pitchers made starts for the Mets. That is not some anomaly–the Dodgers actually had 12 guys makes starts for them in 2014. You need to be able to go at least 7-8 deep with starters to be effective. While everyone is saying what a surplus we have at starter I just keep thinking, “oh good, we might have just enough.”
Trading away Syndergaard is an interesting topic, one I try to stay away from discussing.
At this point, the only way that the Mets would trade him is if there is a reasonable lock to get Tulo without giving up much else. It would be fair to compare Las Vegas and Coors Field, and in that case Syndergaard would be yet another burnout for the Rockies. On the contrary, if he stays in the pitcher-friendly confides of Citi Field and NL East: he will become another star.
Imagine this rotation leading the Mets through the regular season in just a few years:
Matt Harvey
Jacob deGrom
Noah Syndergaard
Zack Wheeler
Steven Matz
That rotation is beyond filthy, and could put up excruciating numbers. If the Mets trade Syndergaard it better be to the Rockies, because anywhere else he could actually live out his potential.
In a few years Harvey will be a Yankee.
Well at least he doesn’t have to relocate. But Wright and Granderson will be gone by then. Maybe if the Wilpons are gone as well the new owners will have better financial advisers and can sign Harvey.
I don’t think that the Mets are a shoe in for the playoffs. Their obvious strength is the starting pitching with six major league starters and two prospects waiting in Las Vegas. The better the pitcher traded then the better the return should be. Trading any one of the eight pitchers is not a mistake if it improves the current team and increases the odds of making the playoffs..