With Spring Training arriving in a few weeks, the New York Mets will have to make several decisions based on Spring Training performances. Will Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis be serving as a back-up outfielder? Will Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares or Daniel Murphy be the leadoff hitter? Will Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia or Bobby Parnell be the team’s closer entering the season? These are some questions that the Mets need to answer before the regular season starts, but one aspect of the team that is being overlooked is the starting rotation.
Due to an excess of pitching, which is never a bad thing, the Mets have several candidates who may be capable of pitching in the starting rotation. Spring Training will be a great time for prospects to show how they match up against big league players, while veterans will compete with each other in order to get a spot in the starting rotation.
The Givens
Matt Harvey– The ace is returning, and will look to regain his form after recovering from Tommy John Surgery throughout the past season. Although there are many question marks around Harvey, he will be a lock to make the starting rotation out of Spring Training. Terry Collins will have the interesting assignment of spreading out Harvey’s innings to keep him healthy, and available if the Mets reach the playoffs.
Jacob deGrom– The 2014 National League Rookie of the Year looks to improve upon his previous campaign. A full season of pitching in the majors will show what deGrom is truly capable of, and should provide the Mets’ rotation with a strong punch atop the rotation.
Zack Wheeler– Still only 24 years old, Wheeler will look to fulfill his potential. We saw his talent in July and August, when he had a 6-1 record, 2.25 ERA, and striking out 60 in 64.1 innings. If Wheeler can begin the season with a strong performance, the Mets may have three young aces on their hands.
The Probables
Bartolo Colon– As the Mets’ highest paid pitcher, Colon will most likely be a member of the starting rotation. Although he only posted one month with an ERA below 3.00, Colon provides innings, experience and leadership to this young pitching rotation.
Jon Niese– Josh Barnes of FanGraphs and Joe Vasile of Mets360 have predicted that Niese will have a breakout season based on the success with his changeup. If Niese stays healthy, he is going to have success, and provide the Mets with another quality pitcher in the rotation.
Dillon Gee– Possibly the most likely pitcher to get traded before the start of Spring Training, Gee could stick around as insurance. Gee’s 2014 season started with a promising first half of going 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA. After getting injured, Gee’s second half numbers were 3-7 with a 5.10 ERA. If Gee does not get traded, he may be in the bullpen working as a long reliever and a spot starter.
The Dark Horses
Rafael Montero– Another promising arm in the Mets’ system, Montero showed promise towards the end of the season. In three September appearances, Montero had a 0.77 ERA in 11.2 innings. Although this is an extremely small sample size, Montero will most likely start in the minor leagues, and may get called up throughout the season as a spot starter or injury replacement.
Noah Syndergaard– The top prospect in the Mets’ farm system struggled quite a bit last season. The stuff is there, but the command (according to Triple A manager Wally Backman) needs to improve. It would seem that even a dominant Spring Training would force Syndergaard back down to the minors due to the amount of pitchers ahead of him.
Steven Matz– Before you count him out, Matz has a great possibility of pitching for the Mets in the 2015 season. As the second best left-handed pitcher in the Mets organization, Matz impressed a lot of people last season. Last April, Dan Warthen spoke highly of Matz by comparing him to Clayton Kershaw. Although Matz ended the season in Double-A Binghamton, his performance left a lasting impression, and some think he has the highest potential amongst Mets’ prospects. Even though Matz will start the season off in the minor leagues, a midseason promotion could be in order.
Even though the Mets have options to choose from, the rotation in the beginning of the season may be Harvey, deGrom, Niese, Wheeler and Colon. If these players remain healthy, they will make up the rotation. However, it is highly unlikely that this will be the rotation at the end of the season, as Sandy Alderson will try to get back some pieces in exchange for his veteran arms, and call up his prospects. The rotation will be a strength for the Mets throughout the season, and the young pitchers will provide fans with excitement and inevitably wins.
Well, six hours and no comments? Let me stir it up a bit. I have done a breakdown of the four right handed youngsters. I would expect deGrom to regress a bit as his minor league numbers never measured up to what he did last year. However, hoping a step up by Wheeler, a good return by Harvey, and Niese stepping forward would be good enough for a solid rotation along with Colon.
To take it a step further, don’t want to jinx him but I just don’t see deGrom’s value even reaching this high again, and hope he isn’t Mark Fydrich. Don’t want to jinx the player, but… He would be who I would trade for a true stud SS like Russell, Profar, or Lindor if they insist on one of our four righty youngsters.
Thus, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, deGrom, Colon is quite good thank you. Gee is trade fodder and Montero is strong support against someone going down. Matz just finished AA, and we aren’t even sure if he will be promoted yet, so it’s unrealistic to write him into this year’s staff.
Spot on. I agree with pretty much everything you just said. It is probably unrealistic to expect deGrom to improve much on what he did last year, and I feel Gee is unlikely to still be on the team come Opening Day. Matz likely starts in AAA and is up sometime around August or September, hard to imagine it happening before that.
I disagree slight on deGrom’s regression. While I don’t expect a sub 3.00 ERA or a 9.24 K/9 again, he has put up very good numbers in the recent past. He flew from A+ to Triple-A in 2013 and his high ERAs of that year can be defended by good FIPs, high BABIPs and decent BB/9. I think it was just a matter of him putting all the pieces together in 2014, which he clearly did. I think Steamer’s ERA and FIP projections are unnecessarily high, and only one more K in 23 more innings of work? Come on!
Thanks for the read TexasGusCC! It’s an interesting point you bring up about deGrom. While it would seem unlikely that he does improve on his 2014 campaign, I think he should be able to come close to those numbers. I have never thought about trading deGrom for Russell, Profar or Lindor, but do you think those ball clubs do deGrom for one of those players straight up? I feel that when other teams look at the prospects the Mets have, they would want one or two more high potential player, but it is an interesting idea.
DeGrom in his previous years in the minors:
A+: 24 y.o, 0.923 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.00 K/BB, 21.2 INN
A+: 25 y. o, 1.167 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 6.50 K/BB, 12.0 INN
AA: 25 y. o, 1.483 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.20 K/BB, 60.0 INN
AAA: 25 y. o, 1.467 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.63 K/BB, 75.2 INN
AAA: 26 y. o, 1.278 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 2.90 K/BB, 38.1 INN
As you see, the K rate was way high last year in MLB. I would love to see him continue doing well and I wish him every piece of good fortune, but he isn’t quite that unhittable. Let me give you some K rates of other pitchers and their ages in A+ because I have a whole spreadsheet for another piece I’m writing:
Harvey, 22, 10.9
Wheeler, 21, 10.1
deGrom, 24, 7.5
deGrom, 25, 9.8
Syndergaard, 20, 9.0
Matz, 23, 8.0
Baumgardner, 19, 8.5
Teheran, 19, 10.8
Hellickson, 21, 9.7
Shelby Miller, 20, 13.8
Bauer, 20, 17.0
Fernandez, 19, 9.7
Cole, 21, 9.3
Sale, 21, 9.0
As you can see gaudy strikeout rates in A+ are normal, but those guys keep it up as they go higher whereas deGrom doesn’t. Makes me feel he may not miss as many bats as he did last year.
AA
Harvey, 22, 9.7
Wheeler, 22, 9.1
deGrom, 25, 6.6
Syndergaard, 20, 11.5
Matz, 23, 8.7
Strausburg, 21, 11.0
Bumgardner, 19, 5.8
Teheran, 19, 8.6
Hellickson, 21, 9.4
Hellickson, 22, 9.8
Shelby Miller, 20, 9.2
Bauer, 20, 14.0
Bauer, 21, 11.2
Cole, 21, 9.2
AAA
Harvey, 23, 9.2
Wheeler, 22, 8.5
Wheeler, 23, 9.6
deGrom, 25, 7.5
deGrom, 26, 6.8
Syndergaard, 21, 9.8
Strausburg, 22, 10.3
Bumgardner, 20, 6.4
Teheran, 20, 7.6
Teheran, 21, 6.7
Hellickson, 22, 11.0
Hellickson, 23, 9.4
Shelby Miller, 21, 10.5
Bauer, 21, 10.6
Bauer, 22, 7.9
Bauer, 23, 8.6
Cole, 21, 10.5
Cole, 22, 6.2
Cole, 23, 6.4
Sale, 21, 21.3 (That is not a typo!) His BB Rate was 5.7.
Great stats Gus. I had to look up Sale’s stats at AAA after reading this and, of course, it’s a small sample size, but damn! He only pitched 10.1 innings in the minors before getting called up to Chicago, and 6.1 of those were in AAA. 26 batters faced, 15 went down by K, 4 were walked, 2 hit homers, 1 other got a hit, 4 made outs with balls put in play.