Welcome to the third edition of our annual projection series. The idea here is that you already have the critical, non-biased computer projections of ZiPS and Steamer and here we have a bunch of fans give subjective predictions to balance things out. Does being a fan of a team give you insight that the projections might miss? Additionally, it serves as a nice reminder of what was expected of a player heading into the year. If before the season started, we though Player X would have a .700 OPS, then we can’t call him a disappointment if he chugs along with a .710 mark.
We’re going to kick things off with Travis d’Arnaud. It’s always harder to predict young players, as they simply do not have the MLB track record of someone who’s been in the league for 10 years. Then a couple of other factors come into play with d’Arnaud. He was so terrible the first seven weeks or so of last season and then he was a completely different hitter after returning from the minors. Is he fixed now? Also, he struggled defensively last year. Will that play any part with his numbers this season? Did he spend the past few months working on defense and neglecting his hitting?
So, what will he do in 2015? Here’s what we think:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | PB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 480 | .265 | .320 | .440 | 16 | 65 | 14 |
| Ferguson | 500 | .260 | .324 | .445 | 17 | 60 | 10 |
| Hangley | 430 | .270 | .312 | .412 | 17 | 72 | 7 |
| Joura | 540 | .268 | .323 | .462 | 22 | 69 | 11 |
| Koehler | 400 | .279 | .329 | .500 | 19 | 67 | 10 |
| Kolton | 421 | .243 | .281 | .344 | 8 | 43 | 19 |
| Newman | 490 | .260 | .320 | .450 | 17 | 60 | 10 |
| Parker | 550 | .265 | .325 | .430 | 17 | 75 | 10 |
| Rogan | 531 | .280 | .315 | .475 | 21 | 72 | 9 |
| Singer | 540 | .264 | .328 | .440 | 22 | 68 | 14 |
| Slape | 425 | .270 | .330 | .430 | 15 | 62 | 8 |
| Vasile | 500 | .265 | .335 | .430 | 21 | 79 | 15 |
| Walendin | 525 | .259 | .323 | .447 | 17 | 68 | 13 |
For the rate categories, the median forecast is used and for the counting categories, the mean is displayed. All things considered, our individual numbers are fairly similar. Sure, there’s a big difference between Dan and Mike’s numbers. But considering that we saw two completely different guys last year, my expectation was to see a lot more variation. Just going back to d’Arnaud’s projection last year, five guys thought he would have an OPS of .800 or more and we had projections as low as a .553 OPS. This year, 11 of the 13 people participating expect an OPS between .724 and .790 and nine have the spread between .755 and .785, a gap of just 30 points.
There’s a fair amount of disagreement on how he’ll fare allowing passed balls. Unfortunately, 10 out of 13 still see a double-digit total. Hopefully, on a rate-basis, d’Arnaud’s totals will be closer to Charlie’s projection rather than Dan’s, as they both had him with a similar amount of playing time.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for d’Arnaud in 2015:
Last year the official forecast was for a .780 OPS and this year that’s down to a .763 mark. In 2014, among catchers with at least 400 PA, a .763 OPS would be tied with Derek Norris for the seventh-best mark in the majors. Norris, essentially an average defensive backstop with the A’s, finished 2014 with a 2.5 fWAR, the ninth-best mark from this group of catchers. Last year d’Arnaud posted a 1.6 fWAR with a .718 OPS.
Now, let’s see how our forecast stacks up with those currently available on FanGraphs:
| System | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 487 | .265 | .323 | .440 | 18 | 66 |
| Steamer | 503 | .251 | .313 | .428 | 17 | 61 |
| ZiPS | 399 | .255 | .313 | .436 | 14 | 49 |
As expected, our forecast is more optimistic than the others, although they are all fairly close. In a bit of a surprise, Steamer projects more playing time for d’Arnaud. The only real outlier of the bunch is that ZiPS doesn’t project as many PA as us and Steamer. Given the injury history of d’Arnaud in particular and catchers in general, that’s probably not an unrealistic forecast, even if I would take the over.
Check back on Saturday for our next entry in the projections series.
The Mets are banking on his success this upcoming season. This kid has been a top prospect since the 2007 draft, and I hope that he finds his way after an extremely long road.
Hopefully Travis will sustain his second half over a full season. If that were the case then his line may look like this 535 PA, .265 AVG, 313/474/787,19 HR, 55 RBI’s which is a little higher than the staff consensus. That would be great production out of TC’s projected seventh spot in the batting order. I think he can do it. His downfall is his passed balls and blocking pitches which I think he also will improve on but because of his expected increase in games I don’t expect the PB’s to dropped into the single digits.
I don’t think his passed balls are really going to cause a problem. He’ll correct to some degree, but his hitting is what will make the larger impact on this team. If we can get potentially 20 home runs out of the catching position, we can live with the defense.
Just read through some old scouting reports. Consistently saw strong marks for his arm strength, footwork and handling of pitchers, said his accuracy on throws was a work in progress.
I’m not thrilled with the passed ball total from 2014, but I also don’t think d’Arnaud is the defensive liability everyone likes to make him out to be. I’d be surprised if he didn’t have average defensive skills to go along with average to all-star offensive numbers.
Looking forward to see d’Arnaud’s full confidence on display for a season. I think he’s felt the pressure and expectations, and that contributed to his struggles early on. Now that he’s shown what he can do in the big leagues, hopefully he starts off strong and maintains solid production throughout the season.
I think his numbers will be largely predicated by where he bats in the lineup. Last year some of us clamored for Terry to move him up in the order; the 7th spot in a Tejada-filled lineup is just a tough one for any hitter, especially a young one who is being told to take, take, take.
I saw d’Arnaud’s success after AAA as a direct result of him finally saying, “Screw it, I can’t let this organization turn my brain into mush; I’m going back to see the ball, hit the ball.” And yes, it’s possible that’s a narrative I’ve completely made up, though there is enough evidence to support it.
I think he’s a middle of the order bat. The numbers won’t come until he’s placed there. However, with the addition of Flores — if it’s Flores — then it eliminates the gapping hole in the lineup and should have a positive ripple effect throughout.
If he can steady himself Defensively, he presents a major upside bat. .720 OPS Floor seems like a a starting point…and a realistic shot at .750-800 makes him n real anchor. He’s a “warts and all” kind of hitter—- he needs to be aggressive and he’ll look bad at times…but he has some major Giddyup in the bat!
i love this time of year when mets360 does the projections but i can definitly see tda with a .270 ba 22 hrs and 78 rbis and only 8 passed balls