The Mets have had 14 different pitchers in their history to post a 5.0 bWAR or greater in a season, including Matt Harvey in 2013. None of those 14 missed an entire season after putting up such a dominating performance. The closest we have is Johan Santana, who missed the entire 2011 season after notching a 4.6 bWAR as a 31 year old in 2010.
When Santana came back in 2012, he was not able to give the club either innings (117) or great production (0.2 bWAR) and his season was cut short once again due to injuries. By the time 2010 rolled around, Santana already was dealing with significant injury issues. Harvey, soon to be 26, does not have that injury record. But neither does he have the performance record in the majors that Santana did before the injuries started to mount.
In 2013, the Mets received 11.0 bWAR from Harvey and David Wright. Most of the scenarios of the club challenging for a playoff spot this season count on that duo to replicate their performances from two years ago. That season, Harvey had 178.1 IP, a 2.27 ERA, 191 Ks, 31 BB, 7 HR and a league-leading 2.01 FIP. How will he do this year? This is what we think:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 175 | 3.19 | 170 | 48 | 9 | 2.75 | 1.200 |
| Ferguson | 170 | 3.02 | 190 | 45 | 7 | 2.29 | 1.200 |
| Hangley | 160 | 2.64 | 153 | 63 | 17 | 3.85 | 1.270 |
| Joura | 168.2 | 3.13 | 171 | 42 | 14 | 3.00 | 1.131 |
| Koehler | 150 | 2.52 | 166 | 34 | 10 | 2.53 | 1.000 |
| Kolton | 99.2 | 4.07 | 132 | 51 | 17 | 4.31 | 2.130 |
| Newman | 160 | 3.18 | 170 | 45 | 10 | 2.73 | 1.120 |
| Parker | 150 | 3.20 | 160 | 40 | 12 | 2.91 | 1.170 |
| Rogan | 170 | 2.91 | 184 | 37 | 11 | 2.53 | 1.040 |
| Singer | 184.2 | 2.73 | 207 | 57 | 11 | 2.66 | 1.047 |
| Slape | 160 | 3.22 | 170 | 40 | 10 | 2.64 | 1.123 |
| Vasile | 175 | 3.09 | 184 | 48 | 11 | 2.74 | 1.100 |
| Walendin | 166 | 2.98 | 171 | 44 | 10 | 2.72 | 1.110 |
Only Dave Singer sees Harvey topping his IP totals from 2013, although five of us see him within 10 innings of reaching what he did in 2013. Only Scott Ferguson sees him within spitting distance of his 2013 FIP. Additionally, five writers see Harvey finishing the year with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dan Kolton reprises his role as our contrarian; yet, the only number that seems misguided is the WHIP that he projects. Dan is one of only two writers who sees Harvey outperforming his FIP and Mike Koehler has him just 0.01 lower.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for Harvey in 2015:
Overall, we expect Harvey to be relatively close to the dominating hurler he was before coming down with the injury. Anyone who watched him on a regular basis in 2013 should be forgiven for holding that point of view, especially knowing Harvey’s desire to be great. None of us question his drive; the question is if his body (and the Mets) will let him excel.
Now, let’s see how our numbers compare to those available on FanGraphs for Harvey:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Met360 | 160.2 | 3.02 | 171 | 46 | 11 | 2.82 | 1.123 |
| Steamer | 163 | 3.13 | 175 | 46 | 15 | 3.10 | 1.13 |
| ZiPS | 153 | 3.12 | 140 | 49 | 10 | 3.24 | 1.163 |
Our numbers are very close to the Steamer projection, which has Harvey finishing the year with a 2.7 fWAR. While it’s not a huge difference, the biggest discrepancy between our numbers and Steamer’s set comes in FIP, one of the inputs in fWAR. ZiPS is very close, too, although a bit more pessimistic. To me the most interesting thing is the FIP/ERA difference and given Harvey’s numbers in 2013 it shouldn’t be too surprising. But keep in mind the average pitcher in the NL had a FIP slightly higher (3.69 vs 3.66) last year.
Check back Wednesday for the next entry in our projection series.
The biggest reason for optimism about Harvey’s 2015 season is the time elapsed since his TJ surgery. The recovery time frame for TJ surgery is 12 to 18 months. There is documentation available that clearly shows that the closer the pitcher is to the 18 months of recovery before pitching the better his chances are to recover fully and hit the ground running when he starts up again. And of course the 12 month minimum has a worse recovery track record.
Many times you see a pitcher come back from TJ surgery and it isn’t until the second year that they look like their old selves or some semblance of it. That in my opinion is not because they now have a years pitching under their belt, but more due to the fact that in the second year they are removed from the surgery for the full 18 months or more instead of the minimum 12 months.
When opening day comes around not only will Harvey have the 18 month recovery period under his belt but a tad more, given a little time to shake off the rust that may come from not pitching for over a year he should be fine, then the only concern comes in managing his innings so that he isn’t maxed out in case things break right and we are in a playoff run late in the year.
Thought this linked article had a lot of merit.
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/what-should-the-mets-expect-from-matt-harvey-in-2015/
The articles prediction is 160 IP, 2.98 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.18 WHIP, 167 K
which is very similar to the staff consensus. His projected ERA is the same as Madison Bumgarner’s 2014 ERA. That is good company to be keeping.
Harvey averaged 6.85 innings a start in 2013. Managing those 160 innings will be difficult and by all indications from the front office, that will be his limit. That will come to 23 starts in the regular season, or skipping every 4th start. That works in the regular season but add a start for the play in game, one start in the division series, two starts in the championship series, and two World Series starts and that is another 36 – 42 innings. If they limit Harvey to 6 innings per start and skip him every third start then he will have a 132 innings and be ready for the post season. It begs the question, are innings limits or strict pitch counts necessary 18 months after TJ surgery or is it all just theory and precaution?
The biggest projection on Harvey is not Production, but Health. He didn’t have an Oil Change…. he’s a post surgical Patient. He knows it…the Mets know it.
He’s an “If”…a Wildcard…a Lottery Ticket.
My biggest fear is that Harvey’s competitive mentality will mean he’s throwing 100% on the first pitch….. In Spring Training. I hope he can regulate how that firey spirit translates into how he throws so that he works his way back to being a dominant pitcher by the all star break. We need him as a young team leader… but I have fears he’ll go 100% from the first pitch of the home opener and do some damage.
Wow. Looks like I’m just behind Kolton in the “pessimism dept.” on this one. That never happens!