Mets fans are one of a kind. They range from super optimistic to overwhelmingly pessimistic and with recent signing news, most of the fan base is firmly in the land of pessimism. This signing, of course, is the $210 million mega-deal handed out by the Nationals to the highly-regarded Max Scherzer. At this point, the Nationals have completely put themselves over the top. Only a few years ago they were struggling with a long (re)building stage. While it may seem unreasonable to compare the pre-2012 Nationals to the pre-2015 Mets, there are actually shocking similarities between the potential of the two teams.
Before the 2012 season started, the Nationals faced an uphill battle going against the 102-win Phillies, eager-to-bounce-back Braves, and the re-tooled Marlins. The Nationals’ star 3rd baseman was coming off a major down-year, their big offseason signing a year ago had an atrocious season, they had an oft-injured 1st baseman, and a question mark at shortstop. In addition, their organization hindered on their star pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery. That being said, the sky was the limit for the rotation and bullpen while their leftfielder had a magnificent 2011 season.
Is some of this sounding familiar?
The Mets are faced with a very similar scenario this season. With Harvey coming back, the pitching staff could be completely nasty. The Mets have their first baseman coming off a brilliant year and are confident that David Wright and Curtis Granderson can bounce back. While it may be a stretch to compare Wilmer Flores to Ian Desmond, both can be described as players coming into a season looking to prove something. With regard to the actual division, things look much brighter now compared to 2012. In fact, one could make the argument that in the first half of 2012 the NL East was the competitive division. Now what is the prognosis? Only one team dominates the division while two others could scramble for playoff spots. While the Nationals did bring in players that had solid 2011 seasons (i.e. Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson) and had a young phenom to energize the crowd (Bryce Harper), the Mets will head into 2015 with semi-proven players such as Travis d’Arnaud, Juan Lagares, and Jon Niese.
What happened in 2012? How could Mets fans forget? The first half was filled with exciting victories and heartbreaking losses from every team in the division. The Phillies and Marlins both failed to exceed expectations and were out of the race by the All-Star game. The Mets surprised the entire sport of baseball and were only 4.5 games out of the division lead with only ½ game separating the Mets and Braves from the second wild-card spot. Meanwhile, the Nationals were slowly jogging away with the division crown supporting a four game lead over Atlanta. When the second-half came around, the Mets lost Dillon Gee and Johan Santana to injury and figuratively lost MVP-caliber David Wright. This enabled the Nationals to run away with the division and actually finish four games ahead of the Braves (who would be a part of the infamous wild-card game).
One could argue that the Nationals were the best team heading into the season and it came as no surprise that “Natitude” took over the east. An easy rebuttal to this claim is simply reviewing old 2012 pre-season predictions. Of the 15 predictions that I reviewed, only one website predicted the team would win the division. Care to guess who the front-runner was? Well, it was the heavily favored Phillies, of course.
The 2012 Nationals were a team that made zero excuses for their surroundings. They said nothing when their catcher went on the disabled list. They said nothing when Jayson Werth went on the disabled list. No excuses were made when Mike Morse failed to live up to his expectations and certainly not a peep when Stephen Strasburg was shut down. This was a team that caught a few lucky breaks, but had the players to make the absolute most of the opportunity and turn that into 98 wins.
Of course, the first rebuttal out of any fan of this team’s mouth will be, “Terry Collins doesn’t even come near Davey Johnson!” Or better yet, “The Wilpons/Alderson and Co. prevent this team from ever contending!” Yes, this franchise has a below-average manager and truly horrible owners, but at a certain point we have to realize and admit that those men aren’t the men on the field. For the first time since 2009, this franchise will have 25 MLB-worthy players taking the field on opening day and they should be the only ones to blame if something goes wrong.
Am I saying that the Mets will leapfrog the best team in the National League? No. Do I know if this team will be anything more than a 70-win team? No. The only thing I am saying is that a team who finished at/around .500 the year before surpassed a team who won 102 games in the same year, and with some lucky breaks we could seeing some playoff baseball in Queens in 2015.
Go, Julian, go!
So what your saying is anything can happen.
Tough to argue against that.
Still doesn’t make me anymore optimistic about 2015.
I prefer to think of realistic versus unrealistic. Not pessimism v optimism.
“For the first time since 2009, this franchise will have 25 MLB-worthy players taking the field on opening day and they should be the only ones to blame if something goes wrong.”
This is very hard to justify. In fact this season will look very similar to last. Adding Cuddyer is hardly making a corner outfield position look like we’ve become a world beater all the sudden. Outside of adding Harvey, there are no difference makers relative to last year…and he wont bring 12 more wins to the table alone. The 2015 Mets will not look different at all. Compare the Mets to Padres…now I buy your statement.
I think that what makes the Mets more appealing in 2015, in comparison to 2014, is rather the subtractions than the additions. There will be no more at-bats from Chris Young (or Eric Young Jr.), no more pitches from 35+ year old relievers, and no more cameo appearances from players looking for one more opportunity. Plus, if we add in the probable improvement of some of the young hitters (Lagares, d’Arnaud, Flores) there is definently some addition to the team.
This team may not be able to get 90+ wins, but I certainly think 85-88 is in the cards.
Great parallels between the two teams. Hadn’t thought of that. As we learned again this past season with the Giants and Royals, pitching alone can get you far. While our offense seems like it could use a boost, the good news is, we have some available trade pieces. I don’t see the Mets as a post-season lock, but I agree that if things break the right way, we’ve got a real shot this year. LGM
Hello Julian? Those men are not the men who play on the field? True. But They Are Responsible for what you and I see on the field and therefore are 100% totally responsible! And Davey Johnson is light years ahead of Terry Collins as a manager. And who on this team compares with Bryce Harper? Caesar Puello? Additions by subtraction always help. But who brought in all those 36 year old rejects? Oh! that’s right the Mets GM. When are we going to see Terry Collins give playing time to the kids since his only objective is to win games? Why does it take a private meeting behind closed doors with SA to force Collins to play Flores after being recalled from Vegas? Why was Bobby Abreu even signed in the first place? To appease Collins infatuation with a veteran bat on the bench? It’s insane! And why even bring him back in September if the team wasn’t going anywhere? Wouldn’t that be the perfect opportunity to give the kids some at-bats? Can’t wait to see Collins go through 3 or 4 pitchers in one inning just to get his match ups in place. Yes there is always hope. Hope is eternal. The Mets chances are not.
In three seasons Bryce Harper is career a 270 hitter with 18 hrs and with a litany of injuries. I understand upside bla bla, but you can’t project one player to be great and then crap on Michael cuddyer, who does have a track record, who has been great just because he’s 36. I could just as easily project cuddyer to hit 32 hrs or hit 331, because you know what, he’s actually done it. What greatness has Bryce Harper shown that wasn’t part of a Gatorade or geico commercial?
And how old is Harper? He just turned 22. You have expectations for Cuddyer? Besides averaging 91 games in 3 seasons with the Rockies? So realistically 120 games out of Cuddyer would be outstanding, While 120 games for Harper would be a disappointment. Fair enough. One is at the beginning of his career while the other is at the end. Which would you rather have? I’m crapping on Cuddyer because the Mets could of done better. The Mets are paying him with the expectation of him being on the DL how many times? To play RF? I cringe just picturing him trying to cover and pray he doesn’t injure himself running down any balls going his way. Oh almost forgot. If Cuddyer has a down year and fails to live up to any expectations you’re stuck with him the following season
As nice of a guy and quality in the clubhouse Cuddy will be, let face basic facts, he will be this years CY, and he got hired because He is one of Wrights best buddies. Alderson said as much. Look, they kept Wright as a career Met who will own every offensive record in history, and promised him a rose garden or what ever to get him to sign on. He was Cuddy and he got it. For me, all I see is “Friskies anyone?”
And who did the Mets sign to make Johan happy? I think it was a second base man who will forever be in the hearts of Yankee fans for dropping a 2 out infield pop up with 2 outs in the ninth and the Yanks down a run with K-Rod already walking off the field. My mind is putting up a mental block. Traumatizing event. Oh! I remember! Luis Castillo! Some franchises have a penchant for getting it right. Unfortunately the Mets are not one of them. Friskies? Nah. I’m a fancy feast guy.
Friskies, Fancy Feast….you call it tomato and I call it to-mah-to. Either way amigo, Cuddyer ain’t gone be salmon!
Not a peep when Strasburg was sent down? All anyone talked about in 2012 was how they shut him down and blew their chance of a ring. Even now people are still upset about it, to the point that organizations like the Mets are trying to avoid shutting down players (like Harvey) from missing the post season.
Folks, I see that everyone is banging at Flores and Cuddyer and I think we should put an end to it. Not because the Mets could not do better because I was clamoring for Matt Kemp since June and we saw that he got traded for a few middling prospects. And not because I wouldn’t mind a better option at SS as I had wished for Profar as long as he was healthy.
But, just a year ago Cuddyer won the batting title, and even if he played in Colorado not all Colorado hitters hit .349. Further, yes he is injury prone. Yes, he is not a great fit for this team. But, his road splits were solid and he is a proven hitter that can bat fifth and that is what we all saw this team needed last year. Give the guy a break. Besides, I’m looking forward to MDD’s first extended opportunity to show us what he’s got.
Now, moving to Flores. This is a kid that never got a chance. How many of you here expect Flores to be the difference of whether this team wins 75 or 85 games this year? The one thing that we have always heard was that he can make the routine play and that is what happens 95% of the time. So, let the kid play. It’s not his fault Murphy is another cement block at 2B. So, between them 10-15% of the plays may not be made. Hopefully, they combine for 10-15% more offensive production. But, what are we really losing here by letting the kid play instead of dumping on him?
Gus that’s exactly what should of happened to Flores Last Year! Everyone knew Tejada was not the answer (Except TC). So we lost a year where the front office could of evaluated the kids and provide them with the necessary learning experience they are going to need to establish themselves. Instead we have Collins telling everyone that he’s here to win games so forget the notion of using the kids. Why else do you even bother to sign Abreu? And then bring him back in September! Doesn’t anyone else get pissed off at the stupidity of the decision making at Citi? So in 2015 we have the same question marks except we added a veteran bat who is a defensive liability. After seeing what the Padres gave up for Kemp you’re right Gus. I would rather see him here than another lost season
Pete, they won’t let us run the team. So…
Everything you said, feels like a copy and paste from some of my previous comments. But even though we wasted a year of Flores, I’d rather see him this year and waste another one for a good reason than the one that was wasted last year for a stupid reason.
But Collins isn’t stating on who his starting SS is. So I guess we’re going to see a contest between Tejada and Flores again this spring training. Gus Drew signed for 5 million (Boras client) to play second base for the Yanks. Couldn’t Alderson wheel and deal? Or? Are the Mets over their budget? Perhaps that’s why they’re so aggressively looking to move Gee? And the Dodgers ate 18 million for this season as part of their over hauling the team. Would of cost the Mets only 3 million this year.
Pete, Drew wouldn’t sign with the Mets. He wants to start so he can keep his dream of the big deal alive. The Mets wouldn’t promise him starts. Also, he’s a lefty hitting in the Bronx rather than hitting in Yellowstone, er, Citifield.
I really don’t want that bum anyway. Give me Flores with either Tejada or Tovar as the handcuff. I was on #TEAMFLORES two years ago. I’m not getting off now. Most youngsters get multiple years to develop. On the Mets, they are grateful to get one. Embarrassing franchise!
I agree Gus. My point was that there are always options out there. It’s just a matter of Alderson pulling the trigger and committing this team to win now not in 2017 or 2018. Eventually this team has to play up to its potential and start winning otherwise…I wish someone would ask Alderson why he did not go after Kemp seeing how desperate the Dodgers were trying to unload him and how little they got back in return.
They had already signed Cuddyer and they gave up only the draft pick for Cuddy but more talent would have been given for Kemp and, maybe, Cuddy was cheaper? Maybe? You think that played a role?
I agree with u, it’s ironic that. That met fans were clamouring for the mets to sign Jhonny peralta last yr who is a limited defensive, power hitting ss. Yet, they’re raising hell over Flores, who looks to be a carbon copy of peralta, unproven sure, but he’s also a fraction of the cost and 9 yrs younger.
Absolutely! Alderson had to sell it to Fred and Jeff. Next season you’ll be paying Kemp 18 million as opposed to 12.5 for Cuddyer. Colon and Murphy are gone next season so you’re replacing their money with Kemp’s salary. It was feasible and a much better opportunity for the Mets front office to show the fan base that they were willing to take on salary for the right reasons and the right player.
Unless he plays like a salmon Trout!
Touché