This time last year we were shocked we were still having the Lucas Duda or Ike Davis debate. It may have taken two years too long to decide but the good news is that Sandy Alderson held on to the right guy, as Duda turned in the best year of his career and Davis did not turn back the clock and become a useful player again. Now Duda is counted on to be the big power threat in the middle of the lineup.
You would think a 30-HR, 92-RBI, 137 OPS+ season would quiet the critics yet they’re still out there. Duda struggled mightily against LHP last year and many were calling for a full-out platoon this year. Instead, the Mets brought in a batting coach with at least some success in turning around a lefty batter’s platoon issues and also added John Mayberry Jr. to the mix to play against southpaws.
Meanwhile, the Mets insist that it won’t be a straight platoon, with Duda only getting days off against allegedly tough lefties. In other words, it’s very much up in the air how much playing time Duda will log against LHP. With that as our backdrop, here’s how we think he’ll do in 2015:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | OPS vs LHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 640 | .249 | .360 | .480 | 33 | 101 | .620 |
| Ferguson | 500 | .250 | .340 | .470 | 25 | 75 | .575 |
| Hangley | 525 | .235 | .340 | .460 | 27 | 90 | .610 |
| Joura | 580 | .263 | .361 | .512 | 31 | 95 | .650 |
| Koehler | 400 | .250 | .340 | .450 | 25 | 83 | .400 |
| Kolton | 369 | .220 | .266 | .397 | 17 | 32 | .297 |
| Newman | 600 | .255 | .350 | .470 | 28 | 85 | .630 |
| Parker | 450 | .230 | .345 | .400 | 17 | 65 | .625 |
| Rogan | 540 | .260 | .350 | .490 | 28 | 90 | .550 |
| Singer | 520 | .264 | .357 | .510 | 29 | 94 | .543 |
| Slape | 575 | .260 | .355 | .490 | 27 | 95 | .500 |
| Vasile | 625 | .255 | .352 | .480 | 28 | 92 | .600 |
| Walendin | 625 | .266 | .345 | .461 | 27 | 85 | .625 |
There’s a fairly big difference of opinion here. While the majority of us think Duda will continue to build on last year’s big season, enough people are throwing up red flags. Both Dan Kolton and Doug Parker feel he will hit 17 HR while Patrick Albanesius feels he will nearly double that with 33. Dave Singer (.867) joins me (.873) in predicting a high OPS. On the other hand, Scott Ferguson (75) joins Kolton (32) and Parker (65) in seeing low RBI numbers for a cleanup hitter.
Here’s what we as a group project for Duda:
Last year, Duda logged 596 PA but we see him falling fall short of that number this year. Given the reduced number of trips to the plate, the HR and RBI numbers do not feel like a big drop from 2014’s output. Interestingly, we see him doing better against LHP, with fewer PA against lefties, yet still see a drop in his OPS. Last year, despite a .516 OPS versus southpaws, Duda notched an .830 OPS overall. Our forecast has him with a .600 OPS versus lefties and an .820 mark overall.
Here’s how our forecast shapes up against the ones currently available on FanGraphs:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Met360 | 535 | .255 | .350 | .470 | 26 | 83 |
| Steamer | 621 | .234 | .333 | .419 | 24 | 75 |
| ZiPS | 562 | .260 | .354 | .479 | 26 | 92 |
Usually, our forecast is closer to Steamer than ZiPS. But Steamer seems very bearish on Duda. This may be the first time ever that Mets360 forecasted the least amount of playing time of the systems. Undoubtedly, this is due to us knowing the team’s plans to sit Duda at least some of the times versus lefties. Our rate stats are almost in lock step with the ZiPS forecast, while Steamer sees a fair amount of trouble for Duda in 2015.
Check back Saturday for our next entry in the projections series.
I think he’s going to sit more and get right around 500 PA. If he hits as well as he did last year that would be ok.
I hope that TC puts Lucas in a position to succeed and that would be to platoon him. Duda vs RHP in 2014 had 471 AB, 28 HR, 82 RBI, .273 BA and 372/543/915. I think he could match that line again with a platoon. Mayberry’s career splits vs LHP of 324/533/857 easily justifies a platoon. The other advantage of the platoon is that when Lucas isn’t starting he will be a threat off the bench dictating the other managers maneuvers. If TC manages the advantage correctly he could be getting Duda pinch hitting in key game situations. I am much more bullish on Lucas than the staff and feel he will reach his RHP numbers as his total seasonal numbers in only 510 at bats. I also think that John Maberry was a good pickup and will also have a good year as long as he isn’t overexposed. The success of first base and right field is dependent on how innovative a manager TC will be.
I am cautiously optimistic that Lucas will play reasonably close to last year or maybe even a tad better. I still like to see him do it again though then for 2016 you can pencil him in as a sure thing in your line up. One big year does not a career make, but you have to start somewhere, I hope last year was the beginning of a great run for him.
Write this down. Lucas Duda, 2015….Hr: 37, RBI: 105, BA: .270
In pen?
Count me in the non-platooning camp. I can’t see Terry Collins and his traditional thinking platooning his cleanup hitter, especially if he has a strong start. After a 30HR season i think teams will respect him more and that should probably translate into a higher walk rate.
I say let’s see if Long has success with Duda in spring training.
I say don’t fix it if it ain’t broke.
I believe all your counting stats — at bats, home runs, RBI’s — will all be surpassed by Duda this year, even with the occasional rest against a lefty.
I expect the rest of the Mets offense to outperform last season’s model, with Flores and d’Arnaud both hitting more like their late season selves; and with Cuddyer in left and Wright hopefully in good health, there will simply be more outs to go around, more base runners to drive in.
In such an environment Duda wouldn’t have to improve to have a better year.
We definitely need Duda for the next few years.. He’s got just what we need, a high OBP and plus power… I’ve heard people say we would trade him but We don’t have many guys that can get on base at a high clip like he can, maybe TDA can do that and he moves to first? I don’t know but Duda would not be the first on my list to become expendable He’s definitely a guy that should be here for quite some time, and if he can just hit .260 or higher he’d be a top ten first baseman.