At this point in time, it’s safe to say that most of us are Daniel Murphy fans. That being said, the cold truth is that this time next year, we won’t be doing a prediction for him because he’ll be on another team. But we’ll blow up that bridge when we get to it. In the meantime, let’s take a look at Murphy and his likely production in the upcoming season.
The first four players we looked at were all some combination of young, untested and not having established a consistent level of performance. It’s quite different with Murphy, who has over 3,000 PA with the Mets under his belt. We don’t have nearly the difference of opinion on what Murphy will produce in 2015 as we did with the others. However, one thing that is up for debate is whether Murphy will still be on the club at the end of the year.
So, here’s how we view Murphy’s 2015 shaking out:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | Traded | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 630 | .290 | .328 | .420 | 9 | 70 | Yes |
| Ferguson | 690 | .290 | .333 | .410 | 10 | 70 | Yes |
| Hangley | 590 | .289 | .375 | .406 | 7 | 79 | Yes |
| Joura | 650 | .288 | .327 | .407 | 10 | 68 | No |
| Koehler | 645 | .287 | .325 | .412 | 11 | 75 | Yes |
| Newman | 650 | .290 | .330 | .400 | 12 | 75 | Yes |
| Netter | 595 | .291 | .342 | .402 | 11 | 75 | Yes |
| Parker | 600 | .285 | .340 | .405 | 11 | 67 | Yes |
| Rogan | 635 | .290 | .330 | .410 | 9 | 60 | No |
| Singer | 631 | .294 | .336 | .420 | 12 | 67 | No |
| Slape | 600 | .295 | .330 | .410 | 10 | 65 | Yes |
| Vasile | 650 | .290 | .335 | .420 | 8 | 72 | No |
| Walendin | 655 | .280 | .316 | .435 | 15 | 61 | No |
While there’s a 100-PA difference between the high and low projections, most of the other categories are extremely narrow from one extreme to the other. There’s only a 10-point difference in batting average and all but Chris Walendin have him within three home runs. Talk about a consensus. Interestingly, the majority of writers here think he’ll be traded before the end of the season. It would be enlightening to know from those who think he’ll be dealt if this will happen before or during the season.
Here’s what we as a group project for Murphy in 2015:
In the last three years, Murphy has been extremely consistent, notching OPS totals of .734, .733 and .735 in that span. We see more of the same, with the new outfield dimensions not really helping him at all. In some ways, it’s a boring prediction but if Murphy spends the entire year with the Mets, it will be nice to see similar production to what we’ve been accustomed to the last few years.
Now let’s see if the computer models spit out the same boring forecast:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 632 | .290 | .330 | .410 | 10 | 70 |
| Steamer | 617 | .277 | .320 | .393 | 9 | 56 |
| ZiPS | 643 | .286 | .323 | .404 | 10 | 70 |
Our forecast is a very good match with ZiPS. The Steamer projection is close, too, but overall a bit more pessimistic. Still, we all essentially see the same guy. But Murphy’s career up until this point has not been so smooth and it’s likely a mistake to think this leopard will change his spots now. Maybe this will be the year he makes a big effort to be a pull hitter and takes advantage of the new wall. Would it be any stranger than from going from 3B to OF to 1B to 2B? Or going from a huge injury risk to a guy who plays nearly every day?
Check back Saturday for our next entry in the projection series.
Awww, i was hoping the variable category for Murphy was going to be SBs.
He entered the season with a SB streak, which he extended to over 20 by May. But then after that he barely ran, and when he did, he wasn’t very successful going just 7/12.
Will he start running again in a contract year? Or will he play it safe because no one considers him a good baserunner anyways? (even though advanced metrics suggest that he’s really good)
I was surprised with how many writers expect him to be traded.
As for SB – I doubt Murphy has a green light to steal whenever he wants. He seems like the type who would use it until they told him to stop.
You really think that he wouldn’t have the complete green light having successfully stolen 22 straight bases to end 2013? I can imagine them putting up some red lights later on in the season, but not in the beginning. Plus i remember him running quite a few times when the situation didn’t call for it.
I remember there’s a place that has SB logs, but i can’t seem to find it.
It’s a real shame that he isn’t better defensively his offensive production is very good for a 2nd. Love his hustle and willingness to work hard and take one for the team (switching positions at a moments notice). I can live with his base running brain farts from time to time but when you combine his negatives and the fact that after pitching, 2nd may be the biggest organizational strength we have it doesn’t make much sense for a cash strapped team to hold onto him. Wish it were different but it is what it is.
Where the heck did Hangley get the .375 OBP?Murph the free swinger is all of a sudden going to be Eddie Yost. 🙂
I hope he is not traded during the season because that would mean October baseball in New York!
I think he’ll get traded during the season. Brian, are you suggesting that the team will just offer him a qualifying offer after the season? Or simply that a trade is coming sooner than later?
My sense is that the Mets keep him all year, so long as they are on the fringes of Wild Card contention. If they fall off the pace by a large amount at any point of the season, I expect he’ll be dealt. If he stays on the team all year, they will not offer him the QO
This is my take as well.
Guys, I’m going to jump off the deep end on this one. Because Murph is going into a contract year and because Murph has been waiting for this a long time, I see him fully focused; not giving away at bats like previous years. Also, Murphy last year started turning on pitches much more than the past years and I expect that to continue. Therefore:
.315/.355/.440
680 AB, 95 R, 75 RBI, 22 SB, 20 HR
A 20/20 second baseman. What’s that worth on the open market?
Good for you Murph, you deserve it. All the best!
Pretty sure Alderson will not want to part with him very easily. But, Alderson is a cold blooded SOB. He’s going to go.
I love Murph! I hope he stays with the team for at least the duration of the 2015 season, and then is signed long-term!
Gus- I can’t wait for Murph to morph into Rogers Hornsby!
Murph will be dealt at the trading deadline. No doubt.