Last year Jon Niese made 30 starts and threw 187.2 IP. Yet word on the street is that Niese is viewed throughout the game as some big injury risk, that his shoulder is held together with spit and duct tape. The comparison that you hear most often is Mark Mulder, who was a pretty durable pitcher through age 27 but who appeared in just 23 games the rest of his career due to injuries.
Mulder went from a 6.90 K/9 in his best year to a 4.87 K/9 in his last good year. He also saw a velocity decrease from 89.6 to 87.9. When it all fell apart for him in 2006, his velocity dropped to 85.6 mph. Meanwhile Niese has seen his K/9 drop from a career-best 7.89 to 6.62 last year. And his velocity has dropped from 90.6 to 88.5 last year.
Like Mulder, Niese gets a fair number of ground balls. But last year he had a 47.7 GB%, a drop of nearly four percentage points from his 2013 mark.
Setting aside these concerns for a moment, Niese had an up-and-down season last year. In his first 13 starts, covering 85 IP, Niese had a 2.54 ERA with a 1.129 WHIP. But over his next eight starts, he posted a 5.40 ERA over 43.1 IP with a 1.569 WHIP. In the middle of that stretch, Niese spent time on the DL and he was dreadful his first four starts back.
He turned things around from that point but did not quite capture his magic from the beginning of the year. In his final nine starts, Niese posted a 3.19 ERA with a 1.247 WHIP in 59.1 IP. In this span, even without the velocity he had earlier in his career, Niese recorded a 4.4 K/BB ratio. He found a way to thrive even with diminishing stuff.
So, what do we expect in 2015? Does his solid finish offer us hope for the coming season or are we dismayed by the injuries and the thoughts and rumors of others in the baseball world? Here’s our individual forecasts for Niese:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | GB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 201 | 3.28 | 130 | 40 | 19 | 3.73 | 51.5% |
| Ferguson | 150 | 3.60 | 110 | 37 | 12 | 3.51 | 48.0% |
| Hangley | 187 | 2.96 | 123 | 42 | 9 | 3.18 | 48.5% |
| Joura | 173.2 | 3.33 | 127 | 42 | 18 | 3.81 | 47.9% |
| Koehler | 150 | 3.79 | 112 | 42 | 15 | 3.85 | 48.9% |
| McCarthy | 211 | 3.13 | 138 | 56 | 18 | 3.80 | 50.2% |
| Netter | 58 | 5.10 | 37 | 32 | 12 | 6.27 | 46.0% |
| Newman | 200 | 3.35 | 160 | 50 | 18 | 3.52 | 52.0% |
| Singer | 175.2 | 3.55 | 144 | 45 | 14 | 3.37 | 48.4% |
| Vasile | 190 | 3.60 | 150 | 50 | 17 | 3.57 | 48.0% |
| Walendin | 181 | 3.45 | 141 | 42 | 10 | 3.06 | 50.1% |
Most of us expect him to remain a solid pitcher in 2015, with the exception of Matt Netter, who sees troubling times ahead for Niese. The fact that one of us predicted the bottom to fall out is not surprising. What does catch me a bit off guard is that three people forecast him to reach the 200 IP plateau, a mark he has yet to reach in his career.
Here’s our group forecast for Niese:
Essentially, we see Niese turning in a very similar season to a year ago. With four SP forecasted so far, we have the Mets’ top pitchers combining for 700.2 IP and a 3.21 ERA. Last year, the Mets top four pitchers combined for 715.2 IP and a 3.50 ERA.
Now, let’s see how our forecast stacks up against the other projection systems currently available on FanGraphs:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Met360 | 170.2 | 3.45 | 125 | 43 | 15 | 3.63 |
| Steamer | 173 | 4.09 | 124 | 48 | 17 | 3.93 |
| ZiPS | 171.2 | 3.77 | 132 | 46 | 16 | 3.72 |
Ours is the most optimistic but the encouraging thing is that neither Steamer nor ZiPS sees a collapse from Niese. It’s interesting how all three of us see near identical IP totals from Niese. And the FIP forecasts of us and ZiPS is nearly identical, too. The difference is we see him outperforming his peripherals while ZiPS does not.
Check back Wednesday for the next entry in our projection series.
I understand that Niese being the only lefty in the rotation gives him some extra value. My question is: “Why”?
The Cardinals go with an all righty staff and they don’t appear to have problems. Neither did the Pirates for long stretches or the Brewers. And, weren’t the Royals all righty? If Niese can be the answer to an improvement in the roster, ahem SS, ahem, what’s the problem? Thor will be here in June, Montero is already here. Why do you Have to have a lefty?
Just be glad the team doesn’t view two lefties in the rotation as the key to success…
I do think the Mets shopped Niese in the offseason and simply didn’t find any takers. Despite reaching 30 starts three times in the last five years and never having fewer than 24 starts in that stretch — he’s viewed throughout the game as an injury risk.
Two years ago, I wanted to ship him to Arizona for Justin Upton. Two years later, am I glad they didn’t? Maybe, as Upton’s strikeouts have actually increased and having seen more of him I believe that he isn’t working on his game but getting by on talent. Niese has done a good job, and all pitchers fight through some adversity.
And if Sandy thinks that every time he’s going to make a trade the guy on the other side is going to get raped, he won’t be getting any calls. Which is why he wasn’t in on Myers and while MLB was trading crazy, Alderson was quietly watching. Respect is important too.
Please don’t tell me he had no room for Myers. How do the Padres have room for seven outfielders?
IP – 185
ERA – 3.50
Ks -135
BB – 43
HR – 15
GB% – 48.5%
If this projection ends up happening we should be ecstatic. There’s just something about Niese that feels like his body is going to give out one day and, like Mulder, that will be it. Hopefully he gets by like Colon did with similar problems. If not, pitching depth is definitely not a Met problem.
The drop in velocity is a concern but Niese has really matured as a pitcher. His last nine starts should be an encouragement. He averaged 6.2 innings a start. Collins should slot him in the rotation between two hard throwers for the best effect. I think he will have a solid year with less strikeouts and more walks.
3.50 ERA, 180 IP, 112 K, 54 BB, 3.72 FIP, 49.5 GB%
The Mets have Niese until 2018 at an affordable rate but he could lose his spot in the rotation as early as spring 2016.
Seattle has two young shortstops that would be good competition for Flores or is Sandy waiting on Tulo and willing to trade one of his big four pitchersin a package for him. The Mets play 26 of their first 31 games within the division.
Lost “Time” is important “No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun”. Pink Floyd
Sandy offered the Mariners Niese for Miller this time last year and was turned down. I don’t think he should keep adding things to the deal until the Mariners say yes. Sometimes you have to stand firm and in my opinion, this time is one of them.
Now, before everyone jumps on me for being a Sandy apologist — I do think he should have traded Gee for Eduardo Escobar or Rex Brothers, if that one was actually offered.
70% chance Niese is on another team by August, IMO.