The now $4.2 million-richer Lucas Duda had a coming out party in 2014, belting 30 home runs, driving in 92 runs with an OPS of .830, an ISO of .228 and a WRC+ of 136. He excelled in both standard and advanced metrics and most importantly, created an affordable, viable cleanup hitter for the Mets to build around moving forward. Now the new script goes, if Duda can recreate those same numbers in 2015, or close to them, the Mets will have a chance to compete for a Wild Card playoff spot. But what if he can do better? Much better.
Both Steamers and Fangraphs.com projections see Duda regressing slightly, putting up a .751 and .806 OPS respectively. This is consistent with conventional thinking that since Duda has struggled against lefties the past two years, he will continue to do so next year. And struggle he did in 2014, hitting only two of his 30 home runs against lefties, while hitting .180/.264/.252, and striking out nearly 33% of the time against the southpaws. A .261 BABIP against lefties last year had something, but not all to do with his weak performance. And while over his career Duda has hit lefties to a tune of .212/.291/.317 while striking out 32% of the time, his BABIP is a much more respectable .305. So there is reason to think that his numbers can at least bounce back to his career average against lefties, which would be a welcome boost to his overall performance.
Couple that possibility with the fact that Duda has simply been hitting more and more home runs as he’s gotten more time at the plate, and you can start to see the potential for more production. His HR/FB% has gone up each of the last four years, 9.3% (2011), 12.5% (2012), 14.3% (2013), and finally 16.0% (2014). In all of baseball last year Duda ranked 21st in HR/FB%, and if he increases that ratio another percentage point or two, as he’s done consistently for the past four years, he would be in rarified air with guys like Jose Bautista, Mike Trout and David Ortiz. Additionally, Duda’s ABs per HR has been consistently going down as well, from 26.7 in 2012, to 21.2 in 2013, to 17.1 in 2014. Increasing his at-bats, allowing him to stay in against most lefties, should help Duda’s overall production.
Duda is getting more aggressive too, especially on the right pitches. In an August 25th Fangraphs article, Mike Petriello wrote “His swing percentage is up a bit, but his Z-Swing% (that’s swing percentage at balls in the zone) has jumped from 53.9 to 60.2. His Z-Contact%, up from 81.5 to 87.0. This is all headed in the right direction for a hitter.” So you have a big power type guy who’s becoming more aggressive on pitches to hit in the strike zone, who’s hitting home runs at a faster pace than he’s ever done, who will see 500+ ABs for only the second time in his career, and who with just average BABIP driven luck can see increased production against both lefties and righties. And just in case you still have some doubts, a quote from the man himself.
“By no means was that a career year. I know it’s not a career year. That was last year, it already happened. This year is all about winning and getting better.”
Enter stage left, Kevin Long. Long is not a miracle worker, but there is some belief that while he was brought in to help Curtis Granderson find his power swing again, he could also help Duda against lefties. Where Long seems to help lefty hitters is turning on those inside pitches that get under the hands. That is where “The Net Drill” comes into play. This drill is simple, a pitching screen is placed down the middle of the plate, forcing the hitter to generate power from limited space. It makes the hitter rely on using hip rotation, and keeping the bat in to drive pitches toward right field, rather than swinging over the top, fouling them off or grounding weakly into a shift. If this drill can help Duda with just incremental improvements, on top of a return to career numbers against lefties, he could hit a lot more than two home runs against that split. Team that up with his dominance of righties, which has only increased over the last three years, (.915 OPS in 2014, .831 in 2013, and .745 in 2012) and you have a very good player who still has room to improve.
Even our Mets360.com Projection Series assumes Duda will have a slight drop in production in 2015, probably because no one wants to get their hopes up. But there is a real possibility that this was just the beginning of what Duda can do. If he can handle lefties to the degree where a platoon isn’t necessary, he will get more at-bats, which will produce more home runs. Add in any protection that Michael Cuddyer, Granderson, or Travis d’Arnaud can give in the five and six spots in the lineup, and you have a good OBP hitter who knows how to turn on the pitch he wants.
If this is the year the Mets make a serious run at the playoffs, it will be driven on the offensive side by Duda. A repeat of 30 home runs would be a tremendous starting point to making that happen, but is that the ceiling? It doesn’t seem so when you look at his progressions over the past several years. Not only would this kind of performance make Duda a bonafide star, but it would take pressure off of the David Wright/Granderson comeback talk, and Cuddyer’s offensive need. Good to great years from all three would certainly help, but having a big bopper standing in the middle of them all makes their jobs a little bit easier. And when guys are more relaxed about having to prove their worth and health, they usually play better.
It’s all very tantalizing for the very fact that its backed up by hard numbers, instead of just hope and prayer. The cold truth is, The Dude is primed to break out again. Just don’t mess with his rug. It really ties the room together, man.
It’s more likely that Duda will play less versus lefties….if they’re contending and putting the best team on the field, he’ll be a bench bat against lefties….especially “tough” lefties.
Shouldn’t Duda’s projections be higher now that we know Cuddyer will replace him against tough lefties like Hamels,Lee and Kershaw? He may get less at-bats but he should hit for a higher average and actually get enough days off where Collins will not burn him out.
It sounds like Duda will get a chance to play everyday, but sit against guys like Kershaw, Hamels, Baugardner, and other very difficult lefties. Well, heck, can you blame him? Tough pitchers that aren’t lefty killers like Lester, Lee, and maybe Gio Gonzalez, I would leave him in.
BTW, now that Shields signed in SD, notice all three big fish came from the AL to the NL? Is a tide turning?
What about the fact that Duda will have more protection in the lineup than he’s ever had with Cuddyer batting behind him. You are not going to take a chance of walking Duda who has a great eye with a runner on first and Cuddy on deck.
I think what’s going to happen is that we’ll all realize that d’Arnaud is actually the better hitter . . . then we’ll wait 3-4 months for TC/Sandy to react to it.
I don’t want to see the lineup make out according to how much each player earns.
But when it comes to lineups, that’s generally not an area of stress for me. The presence of Flores makes a big difference. With Tejada in there, the #7 spot used to get no protection whatsoever.
If not for the lefty/righty thing, I think Granderson is actually the best candidate for the 7-spot.
I’d like to see Fast guys hitting ahead of slow guys, as a general rule. I like Grandy somewhere between 2 and 6…work out some of the speed and baserunning deficiencies and bow to some of the L/R considerations.
A combination of any 2 of 3 Cuddy, Flores, Duda is a really gummy track….if you line up all 3 it’s absolutely deadly…Bad Deadly, that is. 1st to third, 1st to home on a double…. advancing on defensive lapses—these all create hitting advantages and runs.
When I get optimistic about this team, I am looking at the starting pitching. When I get pessimistic, I am looking at a slow, unathletic group that plays poor defense.
I worry about the speed and defense. It’s where the KC narrative really falls off the rails.
Missing or Unknown is whether the Mets Front Office has the ability and direction to be active at opportunity and need, when and if it arises.
We haven’t seen “the move” they will make to add to a Roster in a pennant race. They’ve been relatively innactive recently…. disappointing, given the visible opportunity they have to make this team into a contender….they’re missing pieces… they are sitting.
The teams that are leveraging lower dollars and shorter commitments have been more targeted and more active….. nobody is sitting at the low end of the payroll scale and just trotting out to success.