On Friday night, Marc Carig of Newsday reported as news something that has become painfully obvious to anyone paying attention to the hot stove this offseason: The Mets are unlikely to move any starters unless an opportunity presents itself during spring training.
In other words, the Mets are no longer “actively” shopping the likes of Dillon Gee, Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon. That is, if they ever were really active in trying to make a deal.
While it seemed for a fleeting moment during the Winter Meetings in San Diego that at least one trade involving the Mets’ surplus starting pitching would be a given, as the months have come and gone without even so much as a rumbling of a rumor, it became more and more evident the trio would be staying put. Carig’s tweet only served to solidify this as fact, rather than educated guesswork.
As small-market teams like the San Diego Padres wheeled and dealed, retooling their rosters through trades, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson sat dormant. They signed Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry Jr. and selected Sean Gilmartin in the Rule 5 draft.
There was an upgrade needed at shortstop, and pieces available to fill the hole, but whether the Mets were unwilling or unable to swing a deal while the opportunities passed them by doesn’t change that the need still persists.
Some people said that the Mets were waiting for James Shields to sign and set the market. It was a laughable concept then, and it’s even more laughable now that Shields has finally signed and there is no trade that will be made.
Both in and out of the game of baseball, when one has an abundance of a particual resource and a scarcity of another, the problem is remedied by engaging in trade with another party who has opposite needs. I have a lot of chickens and need a cow, you have a lot of cows and need some chickens, we make a deal. The Mets have a lot of pitching and need offense, another team has a lot of offense and needs pitching, they make a deal.
If I don’t trade with you, my farm won’t run at peak efficiency and my output won’t be very good. If the Mets don’t trade their pitching, their team won’t run at peak efficiency and their win output won’t be very good.
It’s not like the Mets are running the risk of going out of business or starving if they don’t deal from their strengths to fill a weakness, but that kind of behavior flies in the face of some very basic economic principles.
If the Mets want to either willfully ignore or cover up that there is a problem, they’re plotting their own path to failure.
The secrecy with which the front office conducts its business blurs whether reality is a lack of awareness about the issues that plague the team or a lack of financial resources to upgrade which is then covered up and lied about. Not that it really matters though, because the result is the same. The Mets have too many chickens and there isn’t a cow in sight.
Would it have killed the Mets if they traded Gee or Colon for an upgrade at SS? Probably not. So what Alderson must of been looking for and what other teams were asking for just wasn’t acceptable for our GM. Let’s see what happens during spring training. Injuries are always part of the equation. Maybe a deal with Texas is still an option.
Pete, that boat sailed when they traded Sardinas. They aren’t trading two.
Good article Joe love the chicken and cow analogy.
So how many chickens are fair trade value for a cow?
🙂
However many I’m willing to give up and you’re willing to accept, Rob.
I still wouldn’t trade my awesome chickens if all I got in return was a cow that’ll probably get injured soon and have to be put down. Or a cow that is marginally better than the cow that I currently have. Or for one of the best cows out there while giving one of my best chickens to a rival farmer.
Managing the pipeline will become an increasingly important aspect of Alderson’s job. When you factor in 40-man issues, the concept of stockpiling becomes a negative — you are only developing players for other teams.
I think it’s too early to kill him on this, but SA is wobbling on the edge, seemingly counting on injuries to solve his problem (Montero, Syndergaard, Matz + 6 starters).
It seems like some basic transactions are going to become necessary in order to maximize the value of the club’s assets. Plawecki will become an interesting test case; and on a smaller level, what happens with Puello will also be worth noting.
As for Gee, my guess is that SA knows that right now, today, he could get X in exchange for Gee. He’s holding out for more, while at the same time hedging his bets on the overall health of the Mets pitching. It’s the Ike Davis situation, I guess. Niese’s arm is highly questionable right now; Harvey is coming back from TJ, and despite the fact that it’s become fashionable to mistakenly refer to Colon as an “innings eater,” his actual history strongly suggests otherwise.
I believe they (ideally) see Syndergaard as a Super 2 guy; that they view Matz as needing a full season of steady innings at AAA w/ Viola; and that they aren’t completely sold on Montero as a starter. There’s a voice in SA’s ear that makes him reluctant to part with Dillon Gee. I believe that SA does not think it’s prudent at this moment in time to give away Dillon Gee. And since we are already at 2/16, I’m inclined to agree. Let’s see what happens over the next 6 weeks. It’s easy for pitchers to be healthy in the winter while sitting on Lazy-Boys. By late March, it gets real.
I’d hate to see Montero in AAA, and believe that’s he’s going to become very important to the bullpen in 2015; there’s going to be injuries, there’s going to be struggles, and right now Montero is the guy who could step in and do a solid job in the late innings (I hope). I don’t want to see him get the Heath Bell treatment. That is, find a role for him and allow him to flourish in it.
Lastly: I’m not counting on Parnell. My fingers are crossed, but the general vibe has never been good.
I think Puello is pre-Alderson and is probably not in his plans even if he is out of options.
Pete — enjoy your comments, btw — I usually do give credence to that line of thinking, “my guy” vs “his guy” — but when you look at the reality of it, everything Sandy has done has been on the back of Omar’s guys. He hasn’t punished Kirkkk or Tejada or Duda or Murphy or Flores or Lagares or Wright or deDrom or Harvey or Mejia or Familia or Matz for being Omar’s guys. And of course he used Omar’s guys to (astutely) bring in Syndergaard, d’Arnaud, and Wheeler.
Who are Sandy’s guys anyway? They are all down on the farm. And they are all going to be awesome. On the cheap he brought in some old San Diego guys, some A’s retreads, but none of them worked out.
And then there’s the free agency signings . . .
From the outside looking in, it appears that Alderson has a habit of overplaying his hand or just will not accept less value than he believes his assets are worth. It’s probably both. He’s held out and got fantastic returns (Wheeler, etc) and seemingly held out for too long and missed the boat (Ike Davis). Should Alderson give in and accept what he feels is too little value in return?
I guess that depends on what value he and his FO assigns to those assets. I mean, it’s entirely possible that they overvalue them. Probable, even. As a fan, it’s incredibly frustrating to witness these instances in which this FO seems to just sit on their hands. Then again, we really have no true insight into what is happening behind closed doors.
Good point, Rob. The strategy has worked sometimes with Beltran, Dickey, and Marlon Byrd, but has backfired in terms of Ike Davis (though Blake Taylor is way too young to make any judgments yet), Scott Hairston, and with this current SS situation.
Well argued Joe. That very much is aligned with my thoughts.
I think we should reserve judgement until Opening Day. Pitchers get injured all the time in Spring Training, and Sandy’s phone will be ringing if a few go down. I get the frustration, but Gee could be a good chip when played at the right time, or Niese for that matter.
I wasn’t enamored with the shortstops on the market. Half of em are playing second base this coming year anyway
1 trade in the last 20 calender months. How is that even possible in the current climate where the average team probably has done 5-10
Is this a case of no one inviting him to play, or Sandy sitting in the far corner and not wanting to mingle with the group?
My money is on the latter
Alderson is one of the last of the dinosaur GMs, and I bet has few real GMs as friends given he is the age of their respective fathers.
+1
Just because there are trades that can be made, does not mean that you should make them. The shortstop market was not all that strong this offseason. Didi Gregorius was the main shortstop piece to be moved this offseason and the Diamondbacks wanted Syndergaard and he was not worth it. One year of Desmond would have cost them Syndergaard, probably not worth it and it only strengthens the pitching that the Nationals have. The Mets may have been able to strike a deal with the Mariners for one of their infielders, but they were not huge improvements.
The Mets weren’t really in a buying or selling mode at the deadline this past year. The weren’t looking to offload anyway unless they were blown away. I do not blame Alderson for standing still on trades. They have a lot of the pieces they need and letting them play gets them to where they need to be like with d’Arnaud and Lagares.
Sandy has had almost 4 1/2 years to address the SS situation, don’t act like it was just this winter. He inherited Reyes and Tejeda (and Flores, for that matter).
Knowing that Reyes would leave, he did nothing other than to hand the job to Tejada — who is not very good. He didn’t bring in competition, didn’t trade for a SS in AA, didn’t do anything. Nothing, zero, zip.
Oh, wait. He signed Omar Quintanilla. Twice.
But hey, in 4 years Amed Rosario is going to kick butt!
But Joe that means the Mets will have to wait almost 9 years for a quality SS!
Three times.
“Just because there are trades that can be made, does not mean that you should make them”
That argument works for short time periods, but when we are talking about 2 years and nothing is being done, that a serious red flag.
“The weren’t looking to offload anyway unless they were blown away”
And that’s the freaking problem. Sandy wants to “win” every trade. Murphy for Bundy. Colon and his entire contract for a good prospect. Gee for an impact player.
Meanwhile, we’ve heard leaks about solid and fair proposals that would have benefited the Mets. Ike for Joyce. Gee for Escobar. Niese for Miller. There are likely boatloads more that were kept confidential.
Earlier in the offseason, Brian postulated that trading is an underutilized aspect of the game. We’ve seen a trend that is starting to recognize that and we’ve seen a bonanza in trades these past 2 years. Sandy, however, refuses to use the avenue to improve the team.
And look who the DBax got in return. Practically a no one. We could have gotten didi for pitching we have not named syndergaard
I would argue that the main SS piece that was moved this off season that we should have been in on was Sardinas. Just as we should never have panic signed Cuddyer and had our powder dry for Myers as our big OF acquisition. With those two moves we would still have all the money left from Cuddyer and Mayberry to make another move or two afterward instead of punting the rest of the off season. And retained our #1 pick and all our allotment money to boot.
Trades are a lot of effort. All the calling and dialing and back & forth. Sandy is the oldest GM in baseball, who hired the oldest manager in baseball; the Mets are using rotary in a cellular world.
He’s looking to cash a few more checks before retirement, not kill himself with work, work, work.
Seriously, I can only assume that he doesn’t think they are worth it. His old pet phrase, “exploring internal options,” writ large. Why go off the reservation?
I would logically think that if Sandy wants to emulate a small market club he would do what a moderately successful small market club does: Trade players that are within two years of their walk year for younger players. Murphy, Colon and Gee fit that description. The return could be major league players that could fill needs.Gee for Escobar fit that description this past winter with a $4.8M savings. It could also be minor league players that have potential and are a few years away with the savings applied to short term free agents.
Trading veterans for minor leaguers is Sandy’s strength. Trading players on the major league roster and signing free agents is his weakness. Including minor league players in trades to improve the major league team is non existent.
All this talk of Pitching Depth has a lot of “if’s” attached – Thank you for the keyword, James Preller. The core of the pitching staff (depth) consists of two guys with shaky histories of arm problems- Gee & Neise, and another guy coming off TJ surgery-Harvey. Next- a 40-something guy, in his last year, who’s getting ultra high mileage on his “plasma-miracle-cure”-Colon. That’s 4 “if’s” right off the bat, for all of you who are touting the fact that the Mets have 5, 6, 7 quality starters- Depth. Next we have Syndy, who hasn’t thrown a single pitch in Major league “anger”, and Montero, Matz, etc etc.- Guys with little/no ML success/experience. Realistically, the only pitchers attractive to other teams in trade for any high-impact position players are the two guys who are certified as being healthy and with “major-league-stuff” – Syndy and Wheeler- and they’re “untouchable”- for good reason. I think the Mets are trying to get to “respectable”. Maybe get lucky and get some of the “if’s” turned into some more positive answers. What they have in pitching is potentially really good, but there are some obvious risks in their existing pitching talent. The fact is- they can’t make a mistake- they have to keep them all right now.
DeGrom! Pile on 😉 I still think they need to hold onto their pitching