Many Mets fan were upset this offseason so far that Alderson has not made any big moves besides signing Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry Jr.. The problem stems from the fact that the fanbase wants to keep every young arm and and the other young hitters and get the all-star players and that just cannot happen. The Mets would not be involved with most of these players because they did not need to fill that spot, but what would the Mets equivalents be to the trades.
Back in November, the A’s traded Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, and Sean Nolin. The closest comparison on the Mets to Lawrie would be Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Lawrie has started many more games than Nieuwenhuis, but they both provide some nice defense, do not hit for a high average and have some pop. Barreto’s comparable would be hyped young Mets shortstop, Amed Rosario. Last offseason, Barreto was ranked in the top ten Blue Jays prospects and the number one overall international free agent in 2012. Graveman skyrocketed through the Blue Jays system this year, starting out in Single-A and ending the year in up in Toronto. He is very similar to Montero, where he was a starter for most of his minor league career and came up and moved over to the bullpen for a bit. Lastly is Sean Nolin who profiles similar to Darin Gorski, who both throw from the left side and seen some success and some failure in the rotation. If Donaldson did play shortstop and the Mets were interested in him would be be worth Montero, Rosario, Nieuwenhuis, and Gorski. The Mes would probably need to throw in another player because Lawrie is better than Nieuwenhuis. He is under control through the 2018 season, but can he repeat his two MVP caliber years from Oakland. Billy Beane sold very high on Donaldson and was able to replace the loss of Addison Reed with another top shortstop prosepct, albeit one who is a few years away. Alderson may have actually done that trade. Considering that the Mets have depth in the rotation, they could part with the pitchers, Nieuwenhuis is a fourth outfielder, the only piece that would make it difficult for Alderson would be including Rosario. The Mets are very high on him and view him as a shortstop of the future, but they would have Donaldson and then maybe sign another shortstop or him in a few years.
Instead of the Mets signing Michael Cuddyer, they could have traded for Matt Kemp. Putting aside that Kemp costs significantly more and is signed on through 2019, Kemp could have been slotted into right field in New York. The comparable cost for Kemp would be Travis d’Arnaud, Cory Mazzoni, and Marcos Molina. Obviously, d’Arnaud is the center piece of the deal, but the other two are nothing to laugh at either with Mazzoni potentially being a back of the rotation starter and Molina having a stellar year in Brooklyn in 2014. Could the Mets have made this deal, definitely. It would open up the catcher’s spot for Kevin Plawecki to come in and show what he’s got and costs the Mets two pitchers that could help them, but are not guarantees. With the Mets having Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto on there way within the next two to three years, it does not make sense to bring someone in signed through 2019. Cuddyer blocks Nimmo enough and Granderson will block Conforto, this is betting on that they both live up to their hype and potential.
If the Mets traded for Wil Myers, they would have him through the 2019 season under team control. It would make one of Nimmo or Conforto expendable and to be able to be used in a trade for someone else, but what would the Mets need to grab him. The Mets would take the place of the Padres and they gave up Rene Rivera, Jake Bauers, Burch Smith, Joe Ross, and Trea Turner. They would receive Myers, Ryan Hanigan, Jose Castillo, and Gerardo Reyes. The Mets do not have any one like Rivera because he is not a full fledged starting catcher, but had a good year for the Padres last year as the main catcher. Normally he could be considered similar to Anthony Recker, but after last season he comes out ahead. Xorge Carillo comes to mind as someone who could eventually be like Rivera, but he has had no major league experience. Bauers was a little harder to pin point as he was drafted in 2013 out of high school in the seventh round and has already made it to Single-A. Despite being a full three and a half years younger than most of his competition he was fourth on his team in OPS, which was lead by Trea Turner. He does lose a tiny bit of value being at first base, but the best person to compare to him is Jhoan Urena. Smith did not pitch much in 2014 due to injury, but he could be similar to the Mets Matthew Bowman. Bowman has shown that he can be valuable, but is not a star prospect. Most likely back-end rotation starters is where they both would end up. Prior to 2012, Joe Ross was a top 100 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, dropped off since. Another pitcher who is similar to the Mets pitcher Tyler Pill. Lastly is the not so secret player to be named later, Trea Turner. He had a great year in 2014 with his average all the way up at .369 in Single-A. Some wanted the Mets to draft the young shortstop, but instead chose Conforto. For Myers and co. it would cost them a package along the lines of Carillo, Urena, Bowman, Pill, and Conforto and maybe one more minor player. That is a hefty deal for Myers, a fringe starting catcher, and two minor league pitchers. If the Mets had no outfield depth, than that trade might make sense, but as it stands that would be horrible trade for Alderson to make.
These three trades were just a few of the biggest trades made this offseason. It costs a lot to get the players that are needed to compete now. These may not be the specific players that the Mets needed, but it is the caliber of player that they would need. Not every deal Alderson makes can be John Buck and Marlon Byrd for Dilson Herrera and Vic Black. Troy Tulowitzki is a better player than any of these guys when on the field. The cost of him could be a combination of d’Arnaud, Conforto, Rosario, and maybe more. It may be in the Mets best interest not to sell the farm, we will see if it pays off for the Padres over the next few years. They traded away two good young players and eight of their top twenty prospects. They are considerably better now, but a few years from now they may be strapped for players.
Myers , Sardinas, keep our #1 pick and allotment money for a couple of over slot guys to replenish the farm somewhat after those two trades and you still have all the money you spent on Cuddyer and Mayberry’s kid to make another move even taking on some salary in a trade for a good proven ball player.
I bet if you take the money spent on Cuddyer and Mayberry team half that with Colon you can get another good prospect in return and still have the same payroll flexibility you had before the trade while adding another good prospect to your minor league stocks, reserving the payroll not used for a mid season deal if we are indeed still in contention.
The trade deadline isn’t until the end of July, so the jury is still out and the juciest targets for the Mets would not be ready or available for April 1. Whether it is Tulo, Russell, Profar or Lindor, none would have been ready to start at SS opening day, so the best moves wouldn’t improve the team today and all the trade inventory remains intact. I would prefer to remove the question marks, but don’t think the time has yet passed and will likely be revisited in July when the team knows what Flores is and more importantly, what he isn’t.
I agree and like you said none would be ready Opening Day, so it is not only seeing what the Mets have in Flores, but also seeing what the other players will do.
A few corrections:
1. The shortstop the A’s gave up was Addison Russell. Addison Reed is a White Sox reliever.
2. How do you equate Brett Lawrie with Kirk Neuwenheis? Are you serious? Neuwenheis is a 28 year old outfielder that never showed prolonged ability. Lawrie is a high draft pick, 24 year old infielder that can play second or third well, has good power, and was always considered the way we consider Dilson Herrera, but Lawrie has always been hurt. It isn’t a lack of production or lack of ability, it’s an injury bug.
3. Nolin and Graveman compare to Leathersich and a pitcher like Mizzonni or Bowman.
If you were to consider trading from the Mets, probably Lawrie would be compared to another scarce position. So, maybe Plawecki, Montero, Rosario/Cecchini, and Leathersich/Gorski.
If they want Cecchini then definitely. Rosario would make me think a little.
For Kemp, I think that is a bit much.
For Myers, I would do that deal in a heartbeat!! I would do it between heartbeats! If Conturo turns out to be a good player, so what? Myers already is! He was hurt last year, and that 25% strikeout rate BS thrown around at the time of trade is something a young player will struggle with. Look at our guys. And then adding Carillo and two low minors pitchers?? Really, that’s it? Are you thinking about it?
There were rumors that certain other GMs are avoiding Alderson because of Alderson’s attempt to rip off the other team and in essence embarrass them; and the other GMs don’t need to deal with a team that they may be wasting their time with. I don’t think the Mets were even considered because if they were drooling over Myers last year, think that all went away? I don’t think so. Especially when the cost is so minimal to the big picture.
My mistake on the Russel vs Reed thing. In terms of Lawrie and Nieuwenhuis, I said that the Mets do not really have anyone that is on Lawrie’s level. Nieuwenhuis is just the closest the Mets have and I even said that the Mets would need to kick in another player on the deal because of the difference.
I would not do that deal in a heartbeat for Myers. After he came back from injury he played even worse than he did in the first half of the season and he did not play all that well in the first half. It has also been reported that Myers has some behavioral issues. Those two combined are not good, but if he comes back strong that would be great for him, but he hit the sophomore slump. Look at Chris Coghlan won the Rookie of the Year in 2009 and played four more seasons with Miami and did not perform well any of those years. He turned it around a bit last year in Chicago though.
I can see why other GMs wouldn’t want to deal with Alderson, but I was seeing in terms of players who would the Mets need to give up for certain players.
With all due respect, this article is quite speculative. In short, Alderson was smart not to make any trades.
Last year’s team posted at 42-35 record from July 3rd to the season’s end. They are adding a healthy Matt Harvey, David Wright and Michael Cuddyer to that roster.
The team is much more settled going into spring training this year. Duda is settled in at first base. Guys like d’Arnaud & Lagares have a full year under their belt. Flores got his feet wet. Even Granderson should benefit by being reunited with Kevin Long.
The rotation is simply robust and has depth. The bullpen is much more settled this year and stocked with power arms.
Team chemistry is important, and I think this year there is less about figuring out who’s doing what, and more about how we are going to do this. Alderson was smart not to meddle too much.
No disrespect, it is completely speculative, that was the point. I was not arguing that the Mets should have made these trades or any trades at all. I looked at if the Mets were to make a trade for a big name player, what it would cost them. I tried to match up as close to possible based on service time, playing ability, and position. I think it works out better in the long run he does not make these trades, but a lot of fans want him to go out and get these types of players. And he cannot do that without giving up a decent haul.
I agree on Kemp. Too much money and too much risk. He still has health concerns with his hips and could be a huge issue over the next f our years. Donaldson is redundant as the Mets weren’t trading for a third baseman. Myers is different. I get the behavior issue, but players don’t always come back strong or in rhythm.
I liked the Cuddyer signing, but if I had known Myers was available, I would have been all over him.
Great post. I think we were all waiting for the blockbuster trade that never materialized.