The choice is really down to these two young men when considering Opening Day. Matt Harvey will start the season on the disabled list to save some innings, and will likely make his 2015 debut at home versus the Phillies on April 13th; the day Mets fans have been drooling over for nearly two years now. Bartolo Colon is only on the team because of his very debated contract, and is a back of the rotation starter now anyway. Jon Niese, while usually an effective lefty for the Mets, simply isn’t Opening Day material when compared with better options, so a repeat of 2013 is unlikely. Dillon Gee, 2014’s Opening Day starter is more likely to be pitching in relief to start the season, so he’s out.
So we are left to debate the merits of the reigning National League Rookie of the Year, and one of the best up-and-coming fireball pitchers in the game. There is promise and excitement surrounding both players, and stats to back up those raves. Opening Day is about more than just stats, though. Opening Day is about renewed enthusiasm, and getting to choose between two of the league’s best young hurlers is a treat in itself. Based on sheer momentum, deGrom has the slight edge. There is the aforementioned award, and of course the hair which adds character and levity for the masses. Wheeler on the other hand has been a bit quieter. He doesn’t have the flash and gravitas of Harvey, or the electric grin of deGrom. But should that matter?
Wheeler is confusingly on a lot of fan’s lists of people to either be dealt away or relegated to the back of the rotation. The themes are understandable; he doesn’t finish seven innings enough, he walks too many, and he doesn’t seem to have a killer instinct at times. However, he dropped his BB/9 from 4.14 in 2013 to 3.84 in 2014, and while his struggles with walks have been apparent from his days in the minors, there is still room for him to improve. From May 18th onward his BB/9 was 3.49 and from July on his ERA was 2.80. Those might not be ace numbers yet, but it is solid, dogged progress.
Meanwhile deGrom’s emergence, and dominance at times, was more like an event. That was something the Flushing Faithful sorely needed last year. Pessimistically, there’s always the sophomore slump worry to contend with. His peripheral numbers appear to backup his rookie campaign break out, and he has a chance to be an A-1 ace behind Harvey if he continues on course. He also has charisma on his side that helps very good players make lasting impressions. Let’s not forget September 18th’s eight-straight strikeout performance, or that he had four games of double digits Ks. There is some worry that deGrom simply doesn’t have the physical build to handle the endurance of 30+ starts, but that is an issue for the end of the season, not the first game. You want your best chance to win on Game 1, and deGrom might just be that for the Mets.
In the larger view, this is a fantastic problem to have. If health follows Harvey during and after this season, we look to have him on Opening Day for at least a few more years, or longer if he is locked up long-term. But he’s not an option this year. If Wheeler can continue to improve his walk rate, and in turn last longer throughout his games, he has a chance to be every bit as good as Harvey. He is durable and improved in a lot of areas last season. And let’s say deGrom is some physical freak that can toss heat with a wiry frame and no ill effects, that’s a third ace-type pitcher to consider. Right now the question boils down to this: Wheeler has to prove he’s the de facto stud while Harvey watches. All deGrom has to do is prove he can do it… again. There’s the big difference. Based on that alone, it seems like deGrom is the front-runner to start on Opening Day.
If deGrom does end up taking the ball on Opening Day, it could end up working in the Mets favor. Wheeler seems to be as competitive as they come, even if he doesn’t show it as much or add flair to his dramatics the way Harvey or deGrom do. Having to first watch Gee and now possibly deGrom take the role that he should consider his, could put a little chip on his shoulder. In any potentially dominant rotation, a pitcher cannot be complacent about his role within the construct, but instead always prove that he’s the best. It breeds ambition and excellence. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz had it back in the 1990s. The Mets could possibly emulate that in the latter half of this decade. By giving deGrom the ball on April 6th versus the Nationals, it will simultaneously congratulate one young man on his accomplishments, while goading the other to outperform them. It’s a bit of a risky personality game, but when you want to be the best, you have to expect the best.
My bet would be on Colon, “the savvy vet.”
No way it’s deGrom.
James, I agree with your thinking. However, if he has a good spring I think it might be Niese. But, it’s much too early for this kind of speculation.
Patrick, I don’t envy you guys having to dream up things to write about. It must be tougher in February when just about every angle has been picked at and the front office has done very little to help. Appreciate the effort.
I’d take Wheeler. he has earned the opportunity to be the Opening Day SP. deGrom doesn’t need the added pressure and he’ll have chances down the road. What a horrible choice of having Gee and his 5 million+ salary pitch out of the pen. Better to move him before Opening Day.
pete, you and I are typically locked in, but I’m heading for deGrom. deGrom is reigning RoY and a better pitcher than Wheeler. I want him getting as many starts as possible. As for pressure…well it’s less pressure in the first week of April than the first week of October. If we believe the hype, everyone better get ready for it and step up. October begins for the Mets in the first series of the season.
Colon hands down make it a bonus for the fans and have him go out and take his warm up tosses in a big fat clown suit.
Let’s look at it logically.
Mets pitchers career stats vs the Nats:
Wheeler: 8 games, 5.09 ERA
deGrom: 1 game, 4.50 ERA
Niese: 10 games, 3.41 ERA
Colon (2014 only): 5 games, 4.50 ERA
Harvey: 4 games, 1.00 ERA
Gee: 16 games, 3.69 ERA
Ideally, you’d want to stay far away from Wheeler and Colon in the opening series. That leaves Niese, Harvey, Gee, and deGrom to choose from. Harvey’s the obvious choice, but he’s likely to be held back. That leaves Niese, Gee, and deGrom.
If Harvey is to replace Gee on the Mets home opener, it would make most sense that Gee gets game number 2, because that spot would come up again on the home opener.
So it’s really going to come down to Niese or deGrom in my opinion. It’s an easy choice for me. Niese has the experience and is the veteran and putting deGrom in the 3rd spot will mean he gets to avoid facing other team’s aces.
So, my preferred setup would be
1. Niese
2. Gee (replaced by Harvey 2nd go round)
3. deGrom
4. Wheeler
5. Colon
I like this.
I expect the Mets to open with Niese, too. Not sure what they’ll do after that.
He may not have “earned” the OD start, but sending Niese to the mound on day 1 isn’t a bad idea. Both deGrom and Wheeler are still a bit young and keeping them away from excessive pressure, especially against the Nats, may protect their psyche. Then again, they will have to step up one day if we’re to call them aces…
How has he not “earned” it?
He’s already started opening day before.
Name , that makes the most sense.
Name, you have my agreement.
Maybe Colon can win 10-12 starts before the All-Star break since he’ll be going against the number 5 starter for most teams? Pretty discouraging having Colon and his 11 million dollars penciled in as a number 5 starter. Add to that Gee and his 5 million plus coming out of the pen. Wouldn’t be so bad but the Mets are cash strapped.