As they prepare for a pivotal 2015 season, the Mets could be worse off than being in the National League East. Not every division features two teams in clear rebuilding mode. However, whether against the retooling Phillies or Braves, the fledgling Marlins, or the contending Nationals, the Mets will need to be at their best in their division as nearly half their season schedule is played within it.
19 x 4 = 76
What this equation means is that the Mets are scheduled to play each of their division rivals 19 times in the regular season, for a total of 76 games. That amounts to 47% of their 162 games. Playing better than .500 ball in those games will go a long way toward a successful season. On paper, the Mets look like the second best team in the division, though many more subjective writers and fans see the Marlins as their equal. How they play against the Marlins in 2015 will surely help settle this argument. And how much they can capitalize on 38 games against the inferior Phillies and Braves should more than compensate for their inevitable losses to the Nationals.
The Nationals
Coming off a 96-win season, the Nationals added the top free agent pitcher and former Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to an already excellent starting rotation. For this reason alone, most season previews peg the Nationals as NL East repeat champions and a top contender for the NL Pennant, along with the L.A. Dodgers. Indeed a rotation of Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, and Gio Gonzalez, with 15-game winner Tanner Roark ready to step in, is the strongest in the major leagues. All six were solid to excellent last season. Even the lefty Gonzalez, who had an off-year, still finished up with a 3.57 e.r.a. and more than 9ks per 9 innings. The bullpen, minus Rafael Soriano, is still one of the better groups, led by effective veterans Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett and Craig Stammen.
The Nationals’ lineup, while not a powerhouse, is without weakness. Every position is manned by proven, quality veterans like Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, a fast-rising youngster like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, or at least a replacement level player like Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos. The bench features some solid support in Jose Lobaton and Nate McLouth and the defense is solid. This team is as sure a thing for the playoffs as there is in baseball. All of that said, the Mets will need to find a way to improve upon their disastrous 2014 performance against the Nats if they hope to improve.
The Marlins
While the Miami Marlins have long been a thorn in the Mets side, they didn’t pose too big a problem last season as the Mets won 11 of their 19 games against them. Big bopper Giancarlo Stanton is back and armed with one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. Provided he bounces back okay from his gruesome hit-by-pitch to the face injury, he should again put up MVP numbers from the 3-hole. The rest of the lineup includes a mix of exciting young players like Marcel Ozuna, Adeiny Hechevaria and Christian Yelich, the speedy Dee Gordon, and the solid veterans Martin Prado, Michael Morse and Jarrod Saltalamachia. Defensively, the team is solid but they do not have a lot of depth. However, they do have a top catching prospect in J.T. Realmuto, who should join the team this season.
The Marlins pitching, particularly once the spectacular Jose Fernandez makes it back from Tommy John surgery, is very good. Fernandez will join an all-righty rotation that includes Henderson Alvarez, Matt Latos, Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler. The bullpen proved surprisingly solid last year with power arms Steve Cishek, Mike Dunn, Brad Hand and A.J. Ramos. The Marlins, like the Mets, also have more arms on the way in the high minors. Given how evenly matched the Mets are with the Marlins, 10 wins out of 19 is a reasonable expectation for 2015.
The Braves
The Braves are a very tough franchise to figure out. Freddie Gonzalez is one of the better skippers in the National League and the organization does a tremendous job of developing young pitchers, so you never want to dismiss them completely. Coming off four straight winning seasons, including three trips to the playoffs, they got off to a strong start last season and were in first place in the NL East as late as July. However, the wheels came off in the second half and the Braves ultimately finished with the same 79-83 record as the Mets. Head to head, the Mets and Braves came close to a split in 2014 with the Mets taking 10 games and the Braves winning nine.
An offseason that begin with the firing of their General Manager, Frank Wren, included the systematic dismantling of their major league roster. They trade higher priced veterans, including two of their cornerstone players in Justin Upton and Jason Heyward, catcher Evan Gattis and pitcher Ervin Santana. They also said good-bye to relievers Jonny Venters and Jordan Walden and injury-prone pitchers Kris Medlan and Brandon Beachy. However, this is not a complete rebuild as the team still possesses prime talent in slugging first baseman and noted Mets killer Freddie Freeman, the dazzling shortstop Andrelton Simmons and baseball’s best closer Craig Kimbrel. The rotation features Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and the lefties Mike Minor and Alex Wood – not exactly the Braves of the 90s, but still a potentially solid rotation. The bullpen is equally solid with David Carpenter and Luis Avilan setting up Kimbrel. They added Nick Markakis to the lineup and top catching prospect Christian Bethancourt will also join the mix. However, unless Chris Johnson and B.J. Upton have big bounce back years, this looks to be one of the weakest lineups the Braves have trotted out in years. Even if all goes right for them, it’s hard to see this team playing .500 ball. Even if Freeman hits .400 against them, the Mets should be able to grab at least 12 wins off this team in 2015.
The Phillies
One of the highlights of the Mets’ 2014 season was watching them beat up on the Phillies, taking 12 of 18, including eight of 10 at Citizens Bank Park. The team is a shell of its former self, retaining some of the aging, but still expensive stars from their glory years, but none of them are as effective or healthy anymore. The now top heavy team features prime players Cole Hamels, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown and the 34 and over club of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Cliff Lee and Jonathan Papelbon. They traded Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd and lefty setup man Antonio Bastardo, but have failed thus far to find trade partners for the rest of their high-salaried players. GM Ruben Amaro is shrewd and will likely find a blockbuster deal for Hamels at the trade deadline to help facilitate a real makeover, however the rest of the bloated roster is going to hold them back another few years.
Odds are, half the old guys will see time on the DL, if they don’t get traded for prospects. When a healthy Hamels or Lee is pitching, they’re still a competitive team, but the rest of their rotation – David Buchanan, Jerome Williams and Miguel Gonzalez – has no one quaking in their boots. Even if Utley, Howard and Ruiz can manage to stay healthy and productive, the lower half of the lineup is one of the weakest in the league with guys like Cody Asche and Freddy Galvis filling out the bottom. The lineup is so bad, in fact, that hasbeens Jeff Francouer and Grady Sizemore are currently competing for a starting spot in the outfield. The Mets should handily take at least 12 wins from this series again this year.
In 2014, the Mets finished 37-38 in division play. Another five or six wins would have put them in playoff contention. If the Mets can say, split with the Marlins, win two of three from the inferior Phillies and Braves, and hold their own against the Nationals (i.e., improve upon last years’ 4-15 record) they’ll wind up around 42-34 in division play. If they can play the rest of their games at a similar clip, they’ll finish with 90 wins, likely enough to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006. When you look at it this way, anything is possible.
Whatever gains the Mets make in the East they will give back to the Central and Western Divisions. I think you left out Haren pitching for the Marlins which just adds to their SP. Do the Mets have a good chance of playing above .500 within the division? Yes. But you’re assuming they play better at Citifield. where they have a problem of being able to play.500. It always seems that when a team gets ignored they come out of nowhere and surprise everyone. Atlanta and Philadelphia have no pressure on them to win. So i guess we’ll see what happens
Good points, Pete. Every year two teams with a lot of talent get clobbered by injuries (Texas and Cinci last year) and another one or two have everything break just right and sneak in (Baltimore and Before their late season collapse, that looked like Milwaukee last year). That’s why they play the games.
The Nationals traded Tyler Clippard so he is not a factor in the Nationals bullpen. That’s kind of a significant oversight when doing an analysis of a team.
As Trey wrote, the Nationals traded Clippard to the A’s for Yunel Escobar in December.
The weak link to the Nationals is their bullpen, but they expect to replace Clippard with Roark. Furthermore, this will be the last hurrah for this group as Werth, Desmond, Jordan Zimmerman, and Span are due to be free agents at year’s end. Since the Nationals already have younger players that are good players like Roark, Espinosa, Michael Taylor and Tyler Moore, all these guys will join Daniel Murphy and Justin Upton and/or Jason Heyward in free agency. Next year should be a pretty good shopping year in free agency for teams.
Trey, you’re right. i forgot they traded Clippard.
Matt,
I think that you did a very fair analysis of the division. However, I don’t agree that “Freddie Gonzalez is one of the best skippers in the National League.” I’ve followed him with the Marlins and now the Braves. He is very ordinary. I’m amazed he was able to keep his job after last year’s debacle.
Norm, I agree. That team total quit in September and further, when he was managing the Marlins it was rumored that they didn’t like his moves too much and they got rid of him pretty quick. I expect the Braves this year to absolutely tank and Gonzalez to be on the MLB Network as a commentator by beginning of August or even mid-July.
I’d take Freddie over Collins. I thought Freddie did a fine job with the Marlins and i do not hold him accountable for the Braves coming up short. That team was poorly constructed around high strikeout hitters and injury prone pitchers. That’s why Wren lost his job. I don’t like the way Collins manages the bullpen or favors certain veterans for playing time but you can’t blame him for the team not having a leadoff hitter, shortstop or leftfielder last year.
Well Matt, comparing anyone to Collins seems to be a favorable proposition. However, on the outside, people all see the Mets doing better and Collins gets alot if love from the national press, because “he didn’t have much to work with”. Whatever.
Better yet the Ray’s somehow have managed to stay competitive in the American League East with a payroll that’s usually at the bottom of MLB. I wonder how they will do without Maddon this year. Collins is worth maybe 3 or 4 losses. And that may be the difference between getting in or watching the playoffs on television.
I’ve never been a fan of Gonzalez’s coaching moves, and in fact I thought he was one of the worst in-game managers in the game when he was with the Marlins. However, he never had a whole lot to work with there, and he’s been a better coach with Atlanta.
I think it’s a bit unfair to call Jeff Francouer and Grady Sizemore “hasbeens”. Sizemore before his injuries was an MVP-talent, and Francouer has managed to stick around for 10 years despite obviously lacks of ability in certain areas, and still has plenty to offer a team as a fourth outfielder. Not HOF worth guys mind you, but solid MLB careers.
The Phillies are a tire fire, while the Braves are a slightly smaller tire fire. Wouldn’t shock me if they were the two worst NL teams.
The Nats will probably put the division out of reach, but if some combination of Harper, Zimmerman and Rendon doesnt give them consistent power they may win fewer games than last year.
I think the Mets can be the second best team in the division and a wild card is doable, but the Marlins scare the hell out of me. We haven’t matched up well with them, and they’re better this year.
BK, what’s worse, a tire fire or a dumpster fire? I’m with you. I think these two teams are gonna stink it up and the Mets have to take advantage of their 38 games against them, because the other 38 division games are gonna be a dog fight.
Say the Mets go 13-6 against the Phillies and Braves. They go 11-8 against the Marlins and 8-11 against the Nat’s. The key will be how well they play against the bottom feeders in the Central and West. The Mets need to play .500 against the elite teams in those divisions. Can they? Yes. Will they? No. My last concern is how poorly the Mets play at Citi. We as fans are hoping they can at least start to play above .500 at home. Not much to ask for? But for the Mets home cooking has not been up to par.
BK Especially now that Haren has decided he will pitch for the Marlins this year. They have a solid SP when Fernandez rejoins them. The team has no pressure and no spotlight on them. The Mets should finish second in the division but I don’t think that will be enough for a wildcard. The Central division is loaded and the West has vastly upgraded teams in Phoenix and San Diego. No gimmes outside of the division this year.
The Mets need to win at home this year. The Nats and Marlins play 10 games each at Citi Field. That should be an advantage but the home field has not been kind for the team. The Braves and Phillies will be the away 10 games and since they are the weaker opponents the Mets should at least split on the road with them. 11 wins from the Phillies and Braves, 10 wins from the Marlins and 9 from the Nats equal 41 wins. The games against the Nats will be key this season toward achieving the Met playoff goal. Another failure like last year will close the curtain on any October baseball.
I got my tickets for April 28th at Miami. Road trip. First time in the park. LGM.
Ok, I get it, the Braves are rebuilding. And as wonderful as it may feel to believe that we are living rent free in Freddy Freeman’s head, I’ve seen enough anguish at the hands of the Braves to know it may not be that simple. We rather too commonly do not play well against teams much worse than us.
No matter who plays for the Braves, it seems whomever they bring up or add to their line up kills Met pitching. So I prefer to be semi-optimistic for now. Let the team make small strides by finishing ST with no major injuries and take it from there.