If you tuned in to the first Harvey Day of 2015 and stuck around after he left the game, you got to see Noah Syndergaard, too. Not a bad Spring Training game. Anyway, you got to see what has everyone excited and you got to see why he still needs more seasoning, too. It’s hard not to love that 96 mph fastball. But even for a first Spring Training outing, it didn’t seem like he was demanding a spot in the MLB rotation.
Prior to the 2014 season, Syndergaard was ranked first on every Mets prospect list save one. It seemed to be a case of “when” not “if” he was to ascend to greatness. But then a stop in Triple-A happened and he did not dominate there like he had in Double-A. Adjusting for both league and park, it wasn’t a bad year, especially for a 21 year old. But at the end of the day, he had a 4.60 ERA and a 1.481 WHIP, numbers significantly worse than what Jacob deGrom and Rafael Montero posted in Las Vegas.
With deGrom turning out to be a revelation, Montero showing success in his second stint in the majors and Steven Matz being everything that his proponents hoped, the Mets’ pitching depth is in great shape. Still, the ones other clubs always ask about in trade talks is Syndergaard. Sandy Alderson has refused to yield to these demands so far. But if the Mets get off to a good start and a certain power hitting shortstop proves he’s healthy and can still hit, will Alderson continue to show the same restraint?
Here are our individual projections in MLB for Syndergaard in 2015:
| Syndergaard | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | Traded? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 100 | 3.45 | 90 | 42 | 7 | 3.57 | No |
| Ferguson | 60 | 3.90 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 3.83 | No |
| Hangley | 122 | 3.26 | 103 | 47 | 12 | 3.95 | No |
| Joura | 70 | 4.25 | 66 | 35 | 10 | 4.67 | Yes |
| Koehler | 150 | 4.10 | 160 | 50 | 11 | 3.02 | Yes |
| Kolton | 71.1 | 3.38 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 5.55 | No |
| Netter | 105 | 2.90 | 115 | 38 | 6 | 2.84 | Yes |
| Newman | 60 | 3.80 | 75 | 15 | 4 | 2.32 | No |
| Parker | 75 | 4.25 | 82 | 35 | 10 | 4.15 | No |
| Rogan | 73 | 3.65 | 76 | 26 | 8 | 3.61 | No |
| Walendin | 45 | 3.05 | 48 | 12 | 1 | 2.16 | No |
The vast majority of the writers here don’t expect Syndergaard to be dealt; however, it’s unclear if that’s because they expect Syndergaard to be way too valuable or if they don’t expect the shortstop to be healthy or even if because they don’t think the Mets will be in the thick of contention. Regardless, four writers expect him to top 100 innings in the majors, including Mike Koehler, who sees a trade and 150 IP for Syndergaard. The other noteworthy projection comes from James Newman, who sees Syndergaard putting up outstanding peripherals (2.32 FIP) yet suffering some horrible luck and winding up with a 3.80 ERA.
Here’s our group forecast:
Overall, we seem to have a pretty reasonable forecast, with the possible exception of playing time given that we don’t anticipate a trade. Still, those who expect every starting pitcher to remain healthy are nearly always disappointed, so perhaps the innings forecast is appropriate, too. Interestingly, we also forecast Syndergaard’s ERA to be right in line with his FIP.
Here’s how our forecast stacks up with the other ones currently available on FanGraphs:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 84.2 | 3.65 | 84 | 33 | 8 | 3.62 |
| Depth Charts | 38 | 3.54 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 3.37 |
| Steamer | 38 | 3.61 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 3.48 |
| ZiPS | 134.1 | 3.48 | 142 | 38 | 13 | 3.26 |
This is the first time we see Depth Charts listed. If you haven’t heard of these before – that’s okay, they’re new. According to the site, “FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff.” All four forecasts see nearly identical ERAs for Syndergaard this year. The big difference comes in innings, with ZiPS seeing nearly as many as Koehler, with Steamer seeing less than half of our total. Depth Charts agrees with Steamer.
Check back Wednesday for our next entry in the projection series.
Interesting listening to the broadcast yesterday as Ron said that Noah was going to get the benefit of working with Frank Viola at AAA.
Foregone conclusion? Or, is it speculation?
I am hoping he goes North.
There’s a better chance of Chris F. voting Barry Bonds into the Hall of Fame than there is of Syndergaard making the 2015 Opening Day roster.
Both have exactly the same chance!
This year Syndergard comes to the party, next year Matz. Harvey,Wheeler,deGrom, Syndergard, Matz, how about that?
I have not seen much of Syndergaard, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to be a great ML pitcher. Why should I be?
It’s interesting how little things are beginning to come out about him. Now we read articles about how last season he didn’t get it, but now he does get it. We read that he’s not on the bench during a game. We read that he pissed off Wright and Parnell. Maybe there were other things, too.
In this game, it always comes down to proper evaluation. Right now, Noah has “X” value on the trade market. That value will rise or fall according to what he does. Factor in the projection that the Mets have for how he will perform in the majors — and also, importantly, compare that against the assets they already have.
One line of thought is that they better trade him ASAP. Another is that it would be a huge mistake.
It could be that Montero & Matz are both better pitchers. I don’t know. And by that I mean: I really have no idea, but I think it could go either way.
Jim-
Interesting line of thought about some of the “personal stuff” on Syndee…. here’s a different take: From the Omar teams that collapsed to the present, only the young Mets are held accountable. They’re scrutinized and bullied in public in the most Ham Fisted manner.
I cannot believe that DW “didn’t know people were around”–heck..I’m not even sure that DW did anything but just nicely nudge the kid back to the bench. Anyway, the end result is just another in the long line of public ass kickings of “some young player”.
I guess they can’t find an established player, manager or executive/owner to hold accountable for the collapses and the 74 win seasons.
DW better have a good year!!! He’s been almost silent as a leader and as a player for the past couple years. Grandy…Wright…Cuddyer—time to stop blaming kids and start holding these “leaders” to something other than lip service.
This is a bit of a “mountain out of a molehill” scenario. Syndergaard is all of 22, and because he didn’t quite “get it” in a Triple-A park that is known for beating up pitchers, that means he’s going to continually struggle? Even if he does, struggle is good for young players, especially when they can get it out early in their careers. His peripherals in Vegas suggest nothing about a repeat of a 4.00+ ERA.
The thing with Wright was probably way over blown, but even if he did lose his cool, Syndergaard is still a rookie and rookies deal with that stuff. It’s not ego-building garbage from Wright, it’s a leader trying to get the troops in line. If this is the worst player/public relations story we get this spring, I think we’re in really good shape.
I don’t see Syndergaard making any real impact on the present season, unless the Mets are well under .500 or injury forces it. If they are really doing well, that means the rotation is fine. I expect the team to be doing well enough that bringing him up will be more of a gamble than the potential positive outcome.
I predict he stays in Vegas and only makes a cameo. Maybe 20 innings in queens.
With all the love for Matz and Gee already starting the season in the pen, I just don’t see how Thor (or someone else) is long for Queens. Trade him for a bat and let him play the full year elsewhere.
Syndergaard should get his chance mid summer after Colon is traded.
I think Sandy wants to eventually have a rotation of Harvey,deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz. The only way I see Noah being traded is for Tulo and I’m not sure if the Rockies want to make that move. The other unknown factor is Matz. Could he move ahead of Noah like deGrom did with Montero last year? Nice problems to have.
80 IP, 3.40 ERA, 85 K, 21 BB, 8 HR, 3.30 FIP No Trade
” a certain power hitting shortstop proves he’s healthy and can still hit,” Maybe I’m not awake yet. Who is he talking about?
Tulo
I believe we are all in agreement that the Mets have strong pitching and in the next few years it will only get stronger. In fact, if Harvey continues to improve there is no reason why over the next few years this Mets pitching staff won’t be considered the best they have ever had. My fear is that if they do not continue to improve the bats they will not be able to compare with 69 and 86 as they simply will not scoring enough runs. The team that must win 2 to 1 or 3 to 2 games all the time will not win the championship in this era.
Most Mets fans have come to believe that the pitching is the “strength” of this team and one of the better staffs in the league and the offense is some stinkhole shit.
This is totally not true
Let’s look at the NL ranks of the 2 stats that matter most, ERA for pitching and runs for offense.
In 2014, the Mets SP were 8th in ERA. Whilst playing in a park with the 2nd lowest park factor for runs in the NL. That is not very impressive and certainly not worthy of the praise being heaped onto them
In 2014, the Mets offense were 8th in runs. Whilst playing in a park with the 2nd lowest park factor for runs in the NL. Not that impressive, but certainly not as bad as most Met fans believe them to believe.
So my point?
Stop lauding the Starting pitching. What the Mets have is a plethora of young and quality arms. Has it translated to Major league success?
No
Do they have the potential to be great? Yes. But until they show it, stop thinking that they are impressive and the “strength” of the team.
And on the same token, stop shitting on the offense. They were actually better than the SP in 2014.