The link between Jacob deGrom and Collin McHugh

According to Baseball-Reference, since 2002, the first year for which we have reliable velocity ratings for all pitchers, only four U.S.-born righty starters in their rookie season (min 125 IP) at age 25 or above have posted an ERA+ of 120 or more. And two of those came last year with Jacob deGrom and Collin McHugh. Those two were both drafted by the Mets. McHugh came up first but was designated for assignment before being traded to the Rockies. deGrom they kept and he ended up winning Rookie of the Year.

Typically, any starting pitcher who maintains rookie status at age 25 has an interesting story and these two are no different.

McHugh turned down a chance to be a preferred walk-on at baseball powerhouse Georgia Tech to enroll in Berry College, which then was an NAIA school. After a junior season in which he posted a 4.67 ERA, McHugh was drafted by the Mets in the 18th round. He had 41 Ks in 41 IP in his debut pro season for Kingsport and followed that up with a very strong year for Brooklyn, where he went 8-2 with a 2.76 ERA.

But a ho-hum year in Savannah (7-8, 3.33 while playing in a pitcher’s park) at age 23 put his future in doubt. But McHugh vaulted himself back into the discussion with a strong season in Double-A in 2011, where he went 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA, which earned him one of the org’s spots in the Arizona Fall League.

The following year, McHugh went from Double-A to Triple-A to the majors. In his MLB debut, McHugh tossed seven shutout innings, allowed two hits and fanned nine. But he failed to build on that impressive outing, as he allowed 18 ER over his final 14.1 IP that year.

In 2013, McHugh started the season in the minors but made it back to the Mets in mid-May. But he was hit hard in three appearances (8 ER, 7 IP) and was DFAd. New York was able to swing a deal with Colorado, sending McHugh to the Rockies for Eric Young Jr. McHugh was barely much better in Denver, where he posted a 9.95 ERA, which earned his release during the off-season.

But the Astros saw something and McHugh rewarded them with a 2.73 ERA over 154.2 innings last year and finished fourth in the American League Rookie of the Year balloting.

Meanwhile, deGrom went to Stetson University and converted to the mound while in college, where he racked up just 83.1 IP. Still, the Mets picked him in the ninth round of the 2010 Draft, the same year they selected Matt Harvey with their first pick.

Making things even more complicated for deGrom was the fact he missed the entire 2011 season after undergoing TJ surgery. But he enjoyed a fine year in 2012, going 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA split between two Class-A clubs. deGrom found the sledding a little tougher in 2013, yet he still advanced to Triple-A during the year. In 2014, he dominated in seven starts in Las Vegas, came up to make his MLB debut and went on to be the National League Rookie of the Year.

So, why did the Mets keep deGrom and not McHugh?

Both pitchers got what they earned from the Mets. McHugh had one good outing but looked like a sub-replacement player in his other 10 appearances with the club. Given the depth of pitching in the organization, it was a pretty easy decision to make. And McHugh fared no better immediately after leaving the Mets. It wasn’t until he got to Houston and changed his approach that McHugh found success.

In 2012 with the Mets, McHugh threw his fastball 58.2% of the time and his slider 13.1% of the time. Fast forward to 2014 and those numbers were 40% and 31.5%, respectively. McHugh’s fastball was nothing special and he achieved success last year by throwing the sixth-highest percentage of sliders among pitchers with at least 150 IP and the highest in the AL.

Meanwhile, deGrom came up as an injury replacement and pitched well enough to keep his job. Then he went from solid to outstanding. In his last 12 starts, deGrom 8-1 with a 1.90 ERA and a 0.942 WHIP.

Before he throws a pitch, the first thing you notice about deGrom is his hair. Once he starts throwing, you forget all about the long locks and notice a repertoire that is as diverse as it is effective. You start with a fastball that averages 93.5 mph. Then you add in the changeup he learned from Johan Santana while he was rehabbing from TJ surgery. Next is the curveball he perfected in Triple-A, one that he throws 14 mph slower than his heater. Oh, and there’s a decent slider in there, too. Combine all that with strong control (2.76 BB/9) and you have the recipe for a dominating pitcher.

Now the question becomes: Can deGrom and McHugh do it again?

Since World War II, only 17 other righties have achieved the feats as rookies that our duo did, with the parameters outlined in the first paragraph. There are some pretty good pitchers on that list, including Mike Boddicker, Jack Sanford and Bob Tewksbury. The only other two pitchers in the PITCHf/x era to meet the requirements are Jeremy Guthrie and Randy Wells. While not perfect comps by any means, the former profiles more similar to deGrom while the latter favors McHugh more.

Guthrie, a former first-round pick, had cups of coffee in the majors in ’04, ’05 and ’06 before finally breaking through in ’07. He’s pitched 175 or more innings in seven straight seasons. Guthrie averaged 93.4 with his fastball in his rookie season of 2007 and throws four pitches. Last year he won 13 games for the Royals.

Wells is what we used to call a sinker-slider pitcher, throwing those two pitches, along with his fastball, in near equal amounts. With an average fastball velocity below 90, Wells simply could not blow batters away. In 2009, he finished sixth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, when he threw his slider nearly 29% of the time. Wells pitched three more years in the majors but was never able to fully duplicate his rookie season success. He retired to become a coach and earlier this year he opened a sports training facility in Illinois.

It’s foolish to make any judgments based on single data points. Both deGrom and McHugh have bucked the odds to become successful as rookie righties at their advanced baseball age. The Mets are thrilled that deGrom has progressed like he has. The Astros are overjoyed to pick up someone from the waiver wire who went on to garner Rookie of the Year votes.

May both former Mets draft picks follow up on their success in 2015.