Look, all I know is what they taught me at SABR Blogging school. There are certain rules about baseball. Rule number one is young pitchers get hurt. And rule number two is strategy can’t change rule number one.
Now is an appropriate time to re-work this M*A*S*H quote. It seems all that anyone wants to talk about is the two pitchers that the Mets have lost already. While there’s no debating the seriousness of losing Josh Edgin and Zack Wheeler for the season, it seems that an even bigger storyline is getting lost in the commotion. While the masses moan and groan about TJ surgery, three starters that entered camp with various forms of question marks are dominating hitters this Spring.
For over a year, all we’ve worried about is how Matt Harvey will respond to surgery. And in his first three outings he has a 2.08 ERA with 1 BB and 8 Ks in 8.2 IP. He’s hit the upper 90s with his fastball and he’s not showing any control problems. If you had to hope for one result from Grapefruit League action it would be that Harvey comes back close to the Harvey of 2013. And all signs point to that direction.
Hands down the biggest pleasant surprise of 2014 was the emergence of Jacob deGrom, who went from prospect afterthought to Rookie of the Year Award winner. Yet we can all name ROY winners who struggled to repeat their glowing performance in their sophomore season. Currently, deGrom has a 2.45 ERA with 1 BB and 12 Ks in 11 IP as he looks to avoid the fate of Chris Coghlan, Geovany Soto, Jason Jennings and others.
All offseason we listened to how Jon Niese was damaged goods and how other teams wouldn’t even consider trading for the guy who has the 13th-most starts in the National League over the past five seasons due to … injury concerns. All Niese has done this year is to take the ball each time he’s supposed to while delivering a 2.61 ERA with 2 BB and 10 Ks in 10.1 IP.
While people look for scapegoats for the injuries to Edgin and Wheeler, three guys who are here and who all have something to prove have combined for a 2.40 ERA with 4 BB and 30 Ks over 30 IP. With all due apologies to the injuries to other pitchers and the amazing Grapefruit League performances for those fighting for the last few bench spots – this is the story of the Spring.
Now’s the time when the bleatings about how “Spring Training stats are meaningless!” and “Small sample size warning!” come out of the woodwork. Go ahead and trot them out and no one can refute you. But my preference is for guys with question marks about their ability to match stats from previous years go out and, you know, match their stats from the past.
Compare Harvey’s lifetime WHIP (0.986) to his mark this Spring (1.154). Or deGrom’s ERA in 2014 (2.69) to this Spring (2.45). Or Niese’s BB/9 his last nine starts last year (1.9) to this Spring (1.7). Those are all encouraging things to see. My preference is for that trio to meet our hopes and for Bartolo Colon to get lit up rather than the other way around.
Harvey could get rocked in his next outing, deGrom could lose his control and Niese could get hurt. All or any of these things would change the narrative. Still the important thing right now is that more than halfway through Grapefruit League play, the guys who should start the first three games of a playoff series are out and out dealing.
Opening Day is two weeks from Monday!
My only question is if these stats include split squads. Let’s just hope that the remaining pitchers stay healthy not only through ST but throughout the 2015 season. On a lighter note maybe Colon can give the kids some tips on how to stay healthy? For all the teasing he must get at the clubhouse buffet he is durable for his age.
There’s no easy way to find that information. MLB.com lists when the Mets have split-squad games and frequently (not always) teams will match up split squads. Two of the nine appearances by our pitchers here were when the Mets had split-squad ones. JDG faced a Marlins squad with Gordon, Yelich, Stanton, Prado and Saltalamacchia while Niese faced a Cardinals squad that had Carpenter, Heyward, Holliday, Peralta, Molina, Adams and Wong.
When you have split squads you typically keep the stars at home and send the rookies and reserves on the road. So if your SP goes on the road in a split-squad game, he’ll face a quality lineup.
For games of April 6 – 9, it’s shaping up to be Colon/deGrom/Niese — with Harvey waiting a week — vs. Scherzer/Strasburg/Zimmerman.
Can the Mets take two of those matchups?
In addition to the pitchers having good results, some of the offense is really getting the hang of it:
Wilmer Flores slash line: .371/.378/.657
Michael Cuddyer slash line: .333/.357/.852
David Wright slash line: .348/.375/.522
Curtis Granderson slash line: .458/.548/.792
Juan Lagares slash line: .394/.459/.606
While these stats mean absolutely nothing, it shows that something must be clicking throughout the lineup. While Duda, d’Arnaud, and Murphy are falling a bit behind, it seems that the lineup as a whole has gotten much better since last year.
Great post, Brian! This has been completely lost in the shuffle for the most part. Personally, I was probably less concerned about Harvey than I should have been and more concerned about Niese than was necessary. With the perpetual negativity around the team it’s nice sit back and enjoy what is rather than what could have been.
Parnell is throwing again…Harvey seems intact. .TJ is cyclical…Some are returning from rehab. ..others less fortunate beginning theirs..fact of life
Spring Training statistics should be used as general indicators much like September statistics in a lost season. The eye test this Spring indicates that Harvey and deGrom are two dominating pitchers, a real 1 and 1A much like Koufax/Drysdale, Seaver/Koosman, Johnson/Schilling. A team can make the playoffs on the back of dominating pitching like this. Niese has also reestablished himself this Spring.
I have been raking Alderson all spring for inactivity but it appears that he was holding knowledge back (as he should) on the health of Wheeler and Niese and could not offer them in trade because they would have been exposed as medically suspect. He lost with Wheeler but Niese seems to be responding nicely. Those are two trade chips that he didn’t really have.
Looking into the future, and still having Montero as starter insurance in 2015, the Mets can still trade Colon this summer and promote Syndergaard. Gee, with two years left on his contract, can be moved in the winter with Matz taking his place in the 2016 rotation. Wheeler will be back by summer of 2016 and when he is healthy he could slot into Niese’s spot. Sandy has the trade chips to improve the major league team or restock the minor league system. I hope he uses these trade chips wisely to keep turning over the team and keeping them competitive.
Great article Brian, you hit the the nail on the head.
Great article Brian. I love the positivity!
I thought for one moment that you would mention what a rocking great Spring our very own 2014 Gold Glove winning center fielder, Juan “the killer” Lagares, was having and what a huge plus he is on both offense (.417/.475/.694) and defense…..but alas…..!!!!!!!!!!!
yes, its spring training, but he looks great! And a quick look through his ST numbers over time shows he’s still improving.
LGM!
Kudos to Lagares on his great ST numbers. I’m especially encouraged by his four walks.
For me, it still comes down to his BABIP. Most anyone can look good with a .341 BABIP like he had last year and I would like nothing more than for him to repeat that number over a full season in 2015 and then we can legitimately start to look at him as a guy who can do it on a consistent basis.
I know…Im just slingin some crap!!!