Fantasy baseball is a game for the long haul. Unlike fantasy football, where one bad week can ruin your entire season, the chances of one bad week throwing off your year in fantasy baseball are slim. Much like the real-life version, the game is a grind, and knowing the ins and outs of valuable players is what keeps teams fresh all year long. Today we’ll look at which Mets players have staying power in the realm of fantasy.
Now I typically play in a 10-12 team league using both AL and NL players. Like many traditional leagues, we use standard offensive and pitching metrics. Advanced statistics be damned, as Wins, RBIs, AVG and SBs trump K/BB%, UZR, and many other, better ways to judge a player’s’ abilities. It’s all about accumulating totals, in weekly head-to-head matchups. Others use the rotisserie method of rolling stats throughout the season. We like to duke it out with straight wins and losses at the end of the week. So just keep in mind that what you read below will pertain to many leagues, not all.
First, the obvious players. Coming off a down year, David Wright is the most notable Mets player that most anyone outside of New York will want to draft. Whereas he used to be a top 30 pick, and a top 5 third basemen, Wright has slipped all the way down to 84th on Yahoo’s Fantasy Baseball overall rankings. Because guys in fantasy baseball usually only have to start a handful of games at a position throughout the year to qualify as eligible, guys like Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Santana are likely to be selected at the hot corner before Wright. Unlike many years prior though, Wright has some sleeper capacity to his name in 2015, and if he does go closer to pick 100, you might have an absolute steal on your hands, as Wright is still capable of hitting .300, popping 20 home runs, and driving in 80+ RBI if healthy.
Lucas Duda is actually going after Travis d’Arnaud according to Scott White of CBSsports.com, which seems odd. Duda smashed 30 dingers last year and drove in over 90 runs, but he also plays a position where similar production can be had for around the same price. d’Arnaud on the other hand, has a lot of potential to put up some serious offensive numbers, a rarity for the catching position overall. He just hasn’t done it yet. Outside of guys like Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Salvador Perez and Jonathan Lucroy, d’Arnaud is one of only a couple of catchers who could swiftly rise up the ranks next year with a good 2015 campaign. By mid-year, he could be a very nice trade for both whoever gets him, and whoever gets something back for him. Both players are aided by the fact that most fantasy leagues have zero defensive component. However neither is predicted to have a high average, bringing down their value slightly. Both are in a similar class like Wright, not quite sleepers, but extremely good value if selected 10th round or beyond, or if you can get them cheap in a trade early in the season.
Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom are the clear favorites among Mets pitching. Harvey is being ranked around 15-20 of all starters, and deGrom follows not far behind at around 20-25 among. They are both viewed as aces, and could very well perform as such in 2015. Noah Syndergaard is even getting some love in deep leagues, of course you’d have to have an empty bench or N/A spot at the beginning of the year to hold him until he makes to New York. Outside of those two, Jonathan Niese and Bartolo Colon can be had as a fifth starter at around 90+ in the SP category. Harvey and deGrom are the only ones who stand to carry a team with Wins, Ks, ERA and WHIP. If you’re going for the likes of Justin Verlander or Michael Wacha before these guys, the more fool you.
Jenrry Mejia is actually getting more love as a starter than a reliever, as he is often ranked nearly the 30th pick in the RP category. With no intention by the front office of moving Mejia back into a starting role, choosing Mejia as a starter would be an absolutely waste of time, unless you want to sneak in extra Saves keeping a closer in the starter position. That’s not a terribly good strategy, unless all your other starters are certified aces. Bobby Parnell and Jeurys Familia will mostly go undrafted, but could be extremely valuable pickups later on in the season, once the Mets bullpen starts to adhere to roles. In the end, you’re only going to want the one who’s collecting the team’s saves, period. If your leagues values Holds, the other two become somewhat viable. Vic Black also falls into this category, but he seems to be behind Parnell on the recuperating list at the moment.
Michael Cuddyer and Curtis Granderson are being grouped together more or less around the 50s+ for outfielders, although Al Melchior at CBSsports.com has Cuddyer as high as 39. Either could be a nice third outfielder with potential to hit 20 homers apiece and drive in 75+ runs. As each comes with concerns about health and being able to provide the offense on a somewhat anemic team, they might be better selected as backups or DHs, if you have that luxury. Cuddyer will likely become 1B eligible soon into the season, but probably won’t put up the numbers to justify starting him there. The eligibility could help his overall value though. Juan Lagares would have to dramatically improve his steals and power for him to be of any fantasy use. If your league somehow does honor defense, he is literally the only Met worth having for that stat.
Daniel Murphy is regarded as being a roughly top 10 level offensive second baseman in fantasy. His high average, occasional power, and ability to steal potentially 20 bases makes him attractive to most team owners. His poor glove won’t hurt him here, and he’s regularly ranked above guys like Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, and Javier Baez. If he does get traded during the season, it will most likely be to a competitive team. Therefore Murphy has the chance to put up even better numbers later in the season, depending on his new home. If he sticks with the Mets throughout 2015, expect his regular solid production.
Like Murphy, take away the glove, and suddenly Wilmer Flores is a valid fantasy starter. He’s currently being ranked roughly 25-30 in the shortstop category, and that could end up making him the best steal on the Mets. Flushing fans are optimistic that Flores can contribute 15+ homers over the course of the season, and that should be good enough for Flores to become a hot commodity as the season moves on. If he can maintain a .260 or better average to go along with some power and run production, he could even be a top 10 fantasy shortstop next season. For this year, look to him late if your favorite SS was taken early, and anticipate average to good numbers for little cost.
That’s a little breakdown of how the Mets players may help your fantasy team this season. As always, selecting the best value for the position is critical, but that often depends on your league’s specific rules. Your’s truly had the option of keeping both Duda and d’Arnaud for next season, but neither is making the cut at the moment. Don’t let team loyalty blind you to making the right choices for your fantasy squad. I might overpay/draft early for Harvey or deGrom, but I’m going to be more selective about when I take any Mets hitters. With any luck, The ‘86ers might just take it all this year. Or maybe I’ll get snake bitten again in 2015. Either way, draft day is still the most fun day of the year!