As you read the various 2015 season previews you’ll be hard pressed to find any prognosticator who doesn’t pick the Washington Nationals to handily win the National League East. Several are predicting they’ll win the National League Pennant and even the World Series. According to the Sporting News, “a team with hardly any flaws should have an easy path to a third division title in four years.” With great pitching comes great expectations, but is this team, from top to bottom, truly invincible? At least one writer says, no.
The Best Pitching in Baseball?
The Nationals shocked the baseball world by adding top free agent pitcher and former Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer to an already excellent starting rotation. Last year Scherzer was dominant, putting up an 18-5 record with a 3.15 ERA and 252 strikeouts. Add that to Jordan Zimmermann (14-5/2.66/182), Stephen Strasburg (14-11/3.14/242), Doug Fister (16-6/2.41/98), and Gio Gonzalez (10-10/3.57/162), plus Tanner Roark (15-10/2.85/138) ready to step in, and you get the strongest rotation in the major leagues and perhaps since the Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine/John Smoltz Braves of the 90’s. All six Nationals starters were good to excellent in 2014 and all are in their prime with no injuries among them. The lefty Gonzalez had an off-year by his standards, but can typically be counted on for 15 or more wins himself. It’s hard to find flaws with a rotation this strong.
The bullpen, led by effective veterans Drew Storen, Matt Thornton, Aaron Barrett and Craig Stammen, should be solid, but minus mainstays Rafael Soriano and Tyler Clippard, it won’t be as dominant as in past years and can less afford injuries or down years. The bullpen, in fact, is vulnerable. A weak bullpen that blows leads is demoralizing to a contending team and a few heartbreaking losses can sometimes break a season. For historical context, look at the 2007 Mets who could not overcome the loss of Billy Wagner and saw their season go down the drain in a September of blown leads.
Another weakness that may mitigate the effectiveness of their pitching is a defense that is less than stellar. Jayson Werth, one of their better defenders, will start the season on the disabled list. Ryan Zimmerman, a career third baseman will be transitioning to first base, where he’ll have to learn to scoop up bad throws from Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon and Yunel Escobar, himself making a transition from shortstop to second base. Desmond contributed 24 errors last season, while Rendon added 15 of his own, and Escobar made 16 at shortstop for the Rays.. The starting outfield of Werth, Bryce Harper and Denard Span combined to make 24 errors last season. Overall, the Nats ranked 15th in the majors in fielding percentage last season, and that was with a healthy Werth and a natural first baseman in Adam LaRoche. Not to mention there weren’t two veterans transitioning to new positions.
A Flawless Lineup?
The Nationals’ lineup features a proven player at every position. Quality veterans like Werth (.292 batting average/37 doubles/16 homeruns/82 RBI), Zimmerman (.280 in an injury-shortened season), Span (.302/39 doubles/31 steals/94 runs), and Desmond (24 homers, 91 RBI) are joined by up-and-comers like Bryce Harper (.273 in an injury-shortened season) and Rendon (21 homers, 83 RBI), solid, if replacement level players Escobar (.258) and catcher Wilson Ramos (.267, 11 homers).
Depth is a problem for this team. The bench features the weak hitting catcher Jose Lobaton (.234 with 2 homers in 214 at bats), infielders Danny Espinosa (.219) and Tyler Moore (.231), and outfielders Nate McLouth (.173) and Kevin Frandsen (one homerun in 220 at bats). Outfield prospect Michael Taylor is highly regarded and may see time this season, but too bad he can’t play infield, where this team is sorely lacking in depth. All of the Nats’ high level prospects are pitchers and outfielders. This doesn’t bode well when you consider the recent injury history of Zimmerman.
The lineup looks decent on paper because it features some big names like the former All-Star Zimmerman who’s coming off another injury riddled-season and will be transitioning to a new position. It also features the coming to the end of his prime and currently injured Werth and two players coming off career years they will be hard pressed to duplicate in Rendon and Span. Harper is one of the biggest names in baseball, but his notoriety is due far more to hype than on-field performance. A few years ago he burst on the scene as a 19-year-old rookie with an explosive swing, often mentioned in the same breath as Mike Trout. After three years in the big leagues, Harper has shown flashes of talent for sure. But he’s struggled with injuries and has so far been a .270 hitter with a little power who makes a lot of errors and sometimes demonstrates an attitude problem. No one who’s been paying attention puts his name next to Trout’s any longer.
Yes, the Nats are coming off a 96-win season and yes they’ve added a Cy Young Award winner to an already formidable rotation. But they’ve lost two relievers and a dependable hitter, have already gotten hit by the injury bug and they have a few players coming off career years they are not likely to duplicate. Plus two of their division rivals – the Mets and Marlins – stand to improve. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but knowing the Mets have to play them 19 times this season and possibly in the playoffs, isn’t it nice to think that maybe the Nats won’t be so good after all?
As a Mets fan living in DC, I’ll agree that the Nats are beatable. Keeping in mind that everything is “could be” since we’re using past performance to predict future performance. But the rotation will likely be excellent. The bullpen, in my opinion, has never been dominant but it has been effective. Even without Clippard it can be effective in the regular season.
The big question is lineup health. Werth, Span and Rendon are all injured, and Rendon is the one they’ll miss the most. They have other valuable players with significant injury histories, like Zimmerman, Harper and Ramos. And while their farm system is stocked, they don’t have a Kris Bryant or Joc Pederson ready to step in right away.
I’d still call them the NL East favorite, they still have 19 games each against the Braves and Phillies (as do the Mets and Marlins), and they still have a rotation full of stoppers. But unless Harper busts out into an MVP candidate (remember, he’s entering his 4th season but is only 22; the aforementioned Bryant and Pederson are both 23) I can see the East being a closer race with the Marlins and (so happy I’m saying this) the Mets.
BK, some wise words. This team is transformed if Harper finally has the MVP season we all expected. Crazy how young he still is. Let’s hope he never pans out.
Matt, I haven’t had a chance to read the article, but obviously, I agree!
Tell me what you think of it. Not so much detail, but same premise. From yesterday.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2015/03/how-much-of-a-sure-thing-are-the-nationals.html/
As you say Matt the Nat’s may appear to be vulnerable. Let’s just flip the coin over so we can see how bad things are for the Mets. With no range at SS or 2nd base how many errors are Murphy and Flores going to combine for? How many innings will teams get 4 outs because of a botched DP or routine play for any MLB infielder? How many pass balls will TDA have this year? Will he lead the NL again in that department? I thought R.A. was traded to Toronto? Inconsistent offense? Really? And the Mets? Grandy hopefully doesn’t strikeout 200 times this season. Maybe we can ask for a batting average a little better than Mendoza for 15 million dollars? Oh and Grandy shifts to LF this year. How is that going to work out? Better yet the statue in RF is actually a 36 year old player! I wish the Mets had the Nat’s problems. Yes they may have a 2 or 3 game losing streak. But with good starting pitchers that’s all we can hope for. By the way it’s not a nice gesture to hope someone never pans out. Never wish ill-will on your opponent it comes back to haunt you.
Hoping your opponent doesn’t pan out isn’t that bad. It’s not the same as hoping for injury, which is awful. But wishing that Harper doesn’t develop into an MVP? No big deal.
Texas Gus, looks like the MMO writer agrees with me. Nats’ lineup and defense are vulnerable. He also makes a good point that while Scherzer is a big name he’s replacing a good pitcher so his impact may not be so great.
Thank you Matt. I cant wait to get home, relax and start reading yours.
Matt, you and the MMO writer are right. Scherzer is probably good for 3 or 4 extra wins than the pitcher he’s replacing. Good but not a dramatic increase. His real value is as a hedge against the possibility of Zimmermann or Fister (or both) leaving after this season.
Yes, anything can happen. Many of us watched the ’87 Mets. But the Nats are solid, through and through. Most importantly, ownership has shown a commitment to excellence. I don’t believe they would sit idly by if the team was struck by injuries or under-performing.
This is in stark contrast to the situation in NY. Where a guy like Josh Edgin goes down — a guy who has never thrown more than 31 IP in a ML season — and the Mets management already appears uninspired to adequately address it.
Is no one bold enough to put a number out there for the Nats? I think i’ve thrown around 85 wins a few times around here, but i’ve yet to see anyone else concretely predict sub-90 wins.
If you think the Nats are “overrated”, yet you think that they’ll still end up winning 90+ games, then what’s the point? Even the most optimistic Mets fan will probably agree 90 is the high water mark, so if you think the Nats will surpass that mark, then of what consequence is that to a Mets fan?
Name, I say 88-89 wins. Will the Mets be good enough to top this???? Tough call.
Name I’ll say the Nat’s win 95+ games and win the division by at least 5 games over the Marlins with the Mets finishing 3rd 10 games behind the Nat’s. Another “disappointing” season for Alderson who finally moves on and re- assigns Terry within the organization,
I agree Matt. The Nats are an excellent team, but arguably not any better than last year. In the modern game, bullpens are more important than ever and the Nats weakened their’s this offseason. Losing Laroche also hurts as he was terrific defensively and they haven’t replaced his left handed power. Scherzer is your classic big name signing that really didn’t meet a need. The Nats would have been better off signing a big time reliever or resigning Soriano than spending money on Scherzer.
They aren’t invincible.
The value of the Scherzer signing won’t fully be seen until the playoffs. For the Nats, it’s not about maybe squeaking into Game 163; the goal is a World Championship.
I don’t think the Nats are overrated at all. The team is constructed to have a better record than last years squad. The Mets goal should be to construct a team that could over take the Nats, not just reach the goal of a one game playoff. The Mets unfortunately have not done this. Fortunately the teams start off even and the games are played between the lines where anything can happen.
The 2012 Nats won 98 games, then got creamed by the Cardinals in the NLDS. The Mets match up well in a short series, and they will have played the Nats the most out of any other playoff team, save possibly Florida. That said, the odds are certainly better for Washington over all.
Lets hope so.
I put the Nats at 90 wins, not 95 or 100. I think they’ll be a good solid playoff team, but not dominant and not a World Series winner. i’m far more impressed with the Dodgers. The lack of a clear weakness is what makes the Nats a popular pick, but their clear lack of a star in the lineup makes them more ordinary than extraordinary.
Matt K.C. had no “stars” in their line up last year. Just consistent hitters and a fantastic bull pen that made many games a 6 inning affair..
Interesting article as they sit 6.5 games back, with Sept 1 upon us.