As we’ve learned from the meaningless games of spring training, this Mets team has the potential to fill the stadium with meaningful games in September. This is not a rebuilding team like the Braves or Diamondbacks and it is certainly not a floundering team (Rockies), nor a middling one (Brewers), nor an aging one (Phillies). This may not be a team backed by deep-pocketed owners (Dodgers, Nationals) or an aggressive GM (Padres), but it is a team of young talent coming into its own, buoyed by a mix of hungry veteran players who want to win. The Dodgers, Nationals and Cardinals all look like sure things to make the playoffs, but at least one of the wild cards is bound to come from one of the three teams that fall into this group – the Marlins, Cubs and Mets. For any of the three to play ball in October, a few things will need to go right. For the Mets, they are as follows:
The 2014 Disappointments Bounce Back
A number of returning veterans are coming off down years, including middle of the order hitters David Wright and Curtis Granderson. Wright had a substandard 2014 season marked by nagging injuries and a lack of power. He’s healthy and seems to have a spring in his step and a chip on his shoulder that have propelled him into a team leadership role. With a healthy body and his buddy Michael Cuddyer lending support in the clubhouse and the lineup, Wright should be able to put together a solid, if not MVP caliber season. Granderson struggled in his first season in the National League and at Citi Field. Now working with his old hitting coach Kevin Long, he seems to have found the stroke and confidence that alluded him last season. A 30 home run season from the lefty would go a long way toward balancing the Mets’ lineup.
The Injured Pitchers Regain Form
Matt Harvey has exceeded our wildest expectations thus far. It’s only spring training, but he looks exactly like the 2013 pitcher who captured our attention with dominant days on the mound that made even the best hitters look overmatched. His velocity, control, pitch selection and swagger all appear to be back. Management will be monitoring his pitch counts, so it’s hard to imagine Harvey competing with Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright for the NL Cy Young award, but if he can stay healthy and be our bonafide ace with 18 wins and 200+ strikeouts, that would go a long way toward a winning season. Former closer Bobby Parnell, who has not had as much time to rehabilitate his post Tommy John surgery elbow, still needs time and has struggled in spring training. While his return is not nearly as crucial as Harvey’s, a healthy Parnell gives this team better depth in the bullpen than it’s seen in many years.
Not Every Old or Injury-Prone Player Winds Up on the DL
From Jon Niese‘s partially torn labrum, to Travis d’Arnaud’s history of various injuries, to the advancing ages of Bartolo Colon and Michael Cuddyer, are four key players with a high possibility of winding up on the disabled list. Odds are at least one of them will wind up there. If at least two of them can remain healthy and productive all season, the Mets will be a lot better off. This team has the organizational depth to overcome a few injuries, but as we saw with last season’s Cincinnati Reds and Texas Rangers, a few too many injuries can derail a promising season.
Someone from Vegas Wins Big
By summer, if not sooner, there will be calls to Las Vegas to call up fledgling players from AAA to the show. It may be to take over for an injured player, a struggling player or a traded player, but there are at least five high-level Mets prospects knocking at the door. Maybe a pitcher like Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz steps into the rotation at mid-season. Or perhaps an everyday player like Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds or Kevin Plawecki takes a spot in the lineup. Any one of these players could be a catalyst who gets off to a hot start and helps the club get on a summer or late-season winning streak.
Someone Blossoms Into an All-Star
It’s quite possible that the next Mets All-Star or NL MVP is already on the 40-man roster. What would it mean to this team if d’Arnaud stayed healthy all year and hit, say, .290 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI? How about if Wilmer Flores proved adequate at shortstop and contributed similar numbers at the plate? Maybe Juan Legares hones his offensive game and blossoms into a quality leadoff hitter. What if Lucas Duda starts hitting lefties and hits 40 bombs? Maybe Jennry Mejia or Jeurys Familia cements themselves as a shutdown closer. At least one of these players will step up their game this year. A shot at the playoffs depends on it.
The GM Pays Attention and Pivots
As this writer has pointed out before, one of the keys to this season is Sandy Alderson’s ability to pivot. If by Memorial Day, it’s become clear that this team is not playing up to its potential, he may need to make a coaching change. If players are struggling, there are high level prospects waiting for their chance to step in. And if this team is on the cusp contention come the All-Star break and the trade deadline, it has the spare parts to afford its GM to pull the trigger on a deal to put them over the top.
Here’s hoping a few things stay intact and fall into place this season.
David Wright has the most potential of having a true bounce back year. Granderson and Cuddyer should improve but not to the extent of being their old selves. Harvey seems like his old self but the continued emergence of deGrom will give the Mets a dominant one-two punch. Niese with all his injury concerns still takes the ball every fifth day and this year should solidify the middle of the rotation. Colon is the worry. I am not sure he can remain effective. I believe Syndergaard will be the one to give the Mets that needed jolt this summer. Duda is the one that will make his first all star team and should produce another solid season. Unfortunately I just don’t see Sandy being able to pivot to the extent that he makes any significant change. His conservative track record is more attuned to the Blevins and Torres and not the Tulo’s of the world. Nice post Matt but I also think the Pirates are a playoff caliber team.
I think the Giants, Padres and Pirates might have an impact in the wildcard race as well.Three LOOGY’S for the Mets pen? Can’t wait for this years version of Metanic to run its course. The only thing staying intact (unfortunately) is ownership
I think the ability to pivot is the real key here, because things inevitably fall apart. In the past four seasons, Sandy has been disinclined to do anything that would imperil the future; he was always willing to sacrifice the present.
The hope here is that we’ve finally seen him turn that corner, as witnessed by the two trades for relievers. He’s trying to win now — and that is a brand new development.
There’s a scenario that maybe the Mets will find themselves needing outfield help in July (let’s say). In the past, SA has failed to plug any holes in the leaky ship. This season, I hope the commitment is to the present. That he will, as you say so well, pivot. Respond & react decisively.
A bounce back from Wright is key not just for this season but going forward as well. If last season was the start of his decline and not an aberration, we’re in trouble.
One of the things that makes me optimistic about the Mets this season is that they’ve replaced two offensive black holes (LF, SS) with good, solid hitters. It should have a ripple effect throughout the offense, to the point where big individual seasons are less necessary than standard production throughout.
I tend to think that the David Wright of old is gone. The bat seems slow to me. But I think he’ll continue to perform as a very capable, dangerous hitter . . . eventually more of a #6 guy in the lineup than a #3. Hopefully there’s enough production throughout the entire lineup that the Mets will be fine.
As for the money, shrug, it’s already buried in the hole. Don’t worry about it.