Really smart people go into an experiment with no pre-conceived ideas and simply go where the evidence takes them. Opinionated people go into experiments with an outcome already in mind. My opinion was that a first-round draft pick from a four-year college should start his first full professional season in either Hi-A or (preferably) Double-A. So I was unhappy when I read yesterday that the Mets were sending Michael Conforto to Hi-A and skipping Lo-A Savannah. My anger was directed at the description of the assignment, not the actual placement.
A collegiate first-round pick doesn’t “skip” Lo-A!
To buttress this belief, let’s look at the 2013 Draft and see where the collegiate guys started out in 2014. There were 15 guys selected from four-year colleges or exactly half of the guys from the first round. My expectation was that eight of them would start in Double-A and the rest in Hi-A. Here are the first three college guys taken in 2013:
Appel: Hi-A
Bryant: Double-A
Gray: Double-A
Yep, this is going exactly as expected. The only problem is that there wasn’t another player in the first round assigned to Double-A. The final numbers were nine in Hi-A, four in Lo-A and two in Double-A. It’s shocking to me that not only were there Lo-A assignments here but that there were twice as many as there were Double-A assignments.
What separates opinionated people from morons is the ability to accept when reality differs from your preconceived world view. My opinion here was wrong. The Mets really did have Conforto skip Lo-A with their assignment.
MORE ON MONTERO: As long as we’re talking about opinions, let’s take a second to review the Rafael Montero–Dillon Gee fifth starter thing. My opinion is that every start that Gee makes over Montero is a wasted opportunity for the Mets. Furthermore, my take is that Mets fans – and perhaps the organization, itself – are treating Montero differently in the exact same situation than if either Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz started out in the majors with a couple of rough starts and finished with a flourish.
We know that Montero had the best ERA of any Mets pitcher to log at least 68 IP in Triple-A at Las Vegas. But Matz hasn’t yet pitched there. So let’s compare the three pitchers at the highest level of competition that they’ve all faced – Double-A. Point out to me the guy who deserves to sit behind Gee.
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66.2 | 2.43 | 0.915 | 9.7 | 7.20 |
| 71.0 | 2.28 | 1.127 | 8.7 | 4.93 |
| 54.0 | 3.00 | 1.074 | 11.5 | 5.75 |
This Spring, Montero has a 2.40 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, an 8.4 K/9 and a 7.0 K/BB ratio. And those numbers are being dragged down by two relief appearances. In his two starts, Montero has a 0.90 ERA, a 0.50 WHIP, a 9.0 K/9 and you can’t calculate his K/BB ratio because he hasn’t allowed a walk in 10 IP to go with his 10 Ks.
Montero dominated at Double-A, he dominated at Triple-A and he’s dominating this Spring. The outlier is what he did in the majors and even that is easily separated between his May appearances, when he was terrible, and his August-September outings, when he was just fine.
But we can even dice his May appearances. In his first two starts, Montero had a 6.97 ERA with a 1.742 WHIP. His final two starts in May he had a 3.72 ERA with a 1.448 WHIP. Montero made eight starts in 2014 and his final six starts he had a 3.03 ERA with a 9.1 K/9.
Essentially, people are saying that Montero’s first two starts in the majors are more important or more predictive than what he did in Double-A or Triple-A or his final six starts in the majors or what he’s done in Spring Training. Two starts – his very first two starts – are being given that much weight.
It’s insane.
WHAT’S NEW WITH NIEUWENHUIS: Kirk Nieuwenhuis came into Spring Training the heavy favorite to grab the team’s fifth outfielder spot because he was out of options. He started off Grapefruit League play with a four-hit game and spent most of the year among the leaders in several offensive categories. But in his last 10 games, he’s 3-21 (.143) with 11 Ks. That’s not good.
TOO BAD HE’S NOT A LEFTY: All the talk this Spring about the bullpen has been the performance (or lack thereof) of the team’s lefty relieves. Meanwhile, Zack Thornton goes out and quietly puts up a 1.64 ERA with 10 Ks in 11 IP. Is he that good? No, probably not. But he has no chance to make the majors because of the hand he throws with and he’ll likely be toiling away in the minors behind at least one guy – and probably more – that’s an inferior pitcher. And with Vic Black and Bobby Parnell expected back shortly, he’s no better than third in the pecking order for a promotion.
Last night, I did a search on Conforto to see where he landed and left a comment. I thought he would start at AA. His swing seems so natural. I was hoping we’d cover it here, so thanks, Brian.
I think his rise may be rather quick and should Grandy revert to 2014 level’s…
My hope was for him to go to Double-A but I would have wagered a fair amount that St. Lucie was going to be the assignment.
I’m still surprised that four collegiate first-round picks in 2013 went to Lo-A to start 2014. My guess is these will be the guys who have the weakest careers of the bunch.
I’m very excited for Conforto’s future and curious how his path to the majors will play out. I don’t believe that starting in Hi-A will be detrimental.
Do you think that Conforto makes the 40 man by the end of the season?
No I do not.
I think he’ll move fast, AA by May or June and AAA by end of year with a shot in in camp next year. Nimmo will probably target for 2017.
Brian, seems like the Gee preference over Montero is made not to upset the apple cart and as long as Gee didn’t do anything to mess it up, he would at least start there and either be traded (for what?) or he would implode and Montero takes over in May. Either way, with Wheeler out there is room for others to get a chance.
Regarding Nieuwenheis, this team plays to a power hitter over an average hitter with good defense and good speed. I hope we don’t miss MDD too much, but I can’t see how MDD brought back less than what Anthony Gose brought back for the Blue Jays. That’s two usable center fielders that this team traded away in order to help the bullpen, as if usable center fielders grew on trees. And before anyone asks if good lefties grew on trees, well Scott Downs was cut the same day and so were two others after the Mets already acquired Alex Torres.
Would the Mets send Matz or Syndergaard to the bullpen for Gee?
I’ll make any wager you like that Devon Travis is a more valuable player than Jerry Blevins.
Couldn’t agree more about Montero. In my opinion, Syndergaard gets more hype because he’s imposing and Matz because he’s a lefty, but in terms of pitching mechanics, accuracy and polish, Montero is the leader. I hope his near future is in the Mets rotation and that Gee is just being showcased as trade bait.
I have a feeling that Gee will be traded soon.
If Gee is put in the bullpen it will be more difficult to trade him as starter even if he does well there. However, if he does well as a starter (as he did this spring) it enhances his trade value. He has the 5th starter job short term to showcase his value to a trade partner for the long term return.
His trade value was minimal this offseason and it’s not going to get better unless he’s doing a Harvey imitation. And if he’s doing a Harvey imitation (however remote that chance is) — why would we trade him?
“His trade value was minimal this offseason and it’s not going to get better unless he’s doing a Harvey imitation.”
True on the second part. But if Gee’s 2-1 with a sub 3 ERA like he was at the end of April last year, and if Pelfrey and/or Kyle Kendrick are stinking it up like most are expecting, maybe there’s a chance the Rockies or Twins will pony up and pay Sandy’s asking price.
“And if he’s doing a Harvey imitation (however remote that chance is) — why would we trade him?”
Exhibit A : Jenrry Mejia last year.
April 25th : “Jenrry Mejia’s starts are must see TV”
Less than 2 weeks later
May 4th: “Don’t move Jenrry Mejia to the bullpen”
April trades are very rare. In the Mets 50+ years, they’ve only had 15, counting last year’s Ike Davis deal. However, I’m all in favor of including Gee in a trade for Tulo, regardless of which month it happens. But I’m not counting on them giving up on Kendrick after 3-4 starts. Or any team at that point swinging a deal for a guy with over 100 starts in the majors, one they had virtually no interest in this offseason.
I think there’s a huge difference in the circumstances of Mejia and Gee. The former was a top prospect with a great arm, the latter was never highly rated and has an extended track record of mediocrity in the majors. If the Mets had made Mejia available in trade on the date of your first link, people would be lining up to acquire the top prospect finally delivering on his promise. If Gee repeats last April, you really think other teams would be doing a 180 and expressing interest when they didn’t this offseason?
I don’t.
Only the amazing depth of top SP prospects in the system keeps everyone from complaining about giving up on Mejia as a starter. Two bad starts and he’s shipped to the pen. Dillon Gee has 13 underwhelming starts and keeps his spot in the rotation. If Mejia was given 10 additional starts, don’t you think he would have straightened things out as a starter?
Why does Gee live a charmed life?
Yes, Gee has lived a charmed life, but why should that factor into the equation? Just because Gee has gotten “x” amount of chances, that doesn’t mean Montero deserves that many chances.
What i see is that Gee struggled at the end of last year. Montero also struggled last year. Montero is having a good spring. Well, so is Gee.
I don’t see any overwhelming argument why Montero should be given the first shot over Gee. And if you’re worried about Gee getting a long leash, his “charmed life” is probably over this year. The Mets now have the depth that any pitcher’s leash is going to pretty short this year.
If the goal is to win, you should use your five best pitchers in your rotation. Montero was better than Gee in Double-A, he was better than Gee in Triple-A, using their stats as SP, he was better in the majors last year, and he’s better than Gee this Spring.
How much more proof does one need?
Montero is absolutely better than Gee was at his stage in his career, but that argument proves absolutely nothing, because Gee and Montero are at different stages in their career.
The comparison needs to be Montero in year 2 vs Gee in year 6.
Short, March/September sample sizes is also not a convincing argument.
Did you wave to the shark when you jumped over it?
One of the reasons that Gee had little or know appeal around the league this off season is that after getting off to a good start last year he then spent a couple of months on the DL and when he returned he didn’t regain his early season form. Gee has put together some nice stretches during seasons that he pitches very well. If he gets off to a good start and proves that he is healthy again he might bring us back something better than minimal value. He is never going to bring us a top prospect but proving he is healthy again after he stumbled so badly after he came off the DL last year will get people to take a look see. How many pitchers have already gone down for the season in just ST when they are supposed to being easing into the season. You can bank on at least that many going down all over the league in April to mid May as well. Many teams that don’t have near the pitching depth we have will look at Gee and see someone that is better prepared to do a credible job than anyone on the roster or the minors, relatively cheap.
Gee had that DL stint last year (and it seems most years he gets a DL vacation) and struggled afterwards health was a question. Niese is either having his monthly MRI’s on his shoulder since he can’t let things get boring when his shoulder isn’t hanging by a thread he is having to be pulled from a start early because his heart rate goes through the roof. And then we have the 41 year old wonder, grossly overweight for an athlete, back loaded contract so of course he is making half again more this year than last. And any 41 year playing any major sport is a health risk of itself his weight makes it even more risky and add the 12 million he is due and you have yet a third acceptable pitcher on the Mets. Any of the three on almost every team would find a home in a rotation and probably do an average or better job, yet they have very little trade value because of each particular set of circumstances for each one.
Only our Mets could find themselves in the position of being pitching rich enough to have average or better starting pitching to trade (Gee, Colon, Niese) and their greatest value is to, who else?
Us!
Montero should be the 4th starter and Gee the fifth starter.
Trading Gee straight up will not return any “need” the Mets currently have. The Mets have control over Gee for two years. Trading Gee would just be a salary dump. The Mets have Colon for one year and he is more expensive. Colon also will not fill a “need” either and is a better salary dump because of his cost. Colon should be the long man in the bullpen and eventually be traded this summer. Gee still could be packaged next winter in trade because alone he will not bring anything of significance. The Mets should go with their best five starters.
Thorton will eventually get a chance this year and surprisingly so will Puello because MDD trade moved him up the depth chart.
Thornton should get the shot over Carlyle. Thornton could be a middle of the bullpen guy. Carlyle is a retread and has no future with this team.
Gee or Montero; Montero or Gee? Like this wasn’t a forseeable problem last year once Alderson signed Colon for two years. Now we are stuck with Colon when both Gee and Montero are clearly superior. But no, Colon will be trotted out a few times to be a batting practice pitcher about a third of the time he starts, and it’ll be one of the reasons why this team will not be in the playoffs this year.
Also, why is Tejada still on the team? Why isn’t Monnell? Why is Familia?
Sorry to be such a debbie-downer, but I just can’t trust this organization anymore to do the right thing as far as putting a winner out on the field. Money decisions…or the lack of it; drives this organization. The Wilpons are a disgrace.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as it is a violation of our Comment Policy.