Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. It pains me to say this but last year’s predictions were just plain horrible. Only two of them turned out right and both of those were “negative” ones. Sure there were three or four that came close to being right but as they say – close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “Juan Lagares will be good defensively” or “Matt Harvey will strike out a bunch of guys.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial.
1. Lucas Duda becomes just the seventh Met in history to record back-to-back 30-HR seasons and the first since David Wright in ’07-’08.
2. Jacob deGrom not only avoids the sophomore slump but makes the All-Star team.
3. Cesar Puello rebounds from being placed on waivers to make his MLB debut.
4. Curtis Granderson beat his ZiPS projection (the most aggressive one) for average (.231) by 30 points.
5. After having a 3.06 ERA last year, Carlos Torres has an ERA in the fours.
6. Jeurys Familia gets sent to the minors
7. Jon Niese sets a career high in (Wins-Losses), breaking his previous best of four.
8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis has a lower OPS than Matt den Dekker after holding a 161-point edge in 2014.
9. Lagares doubles his previous best of 13 SB.
10. Wright finishes in the top 3 in the NL in GDPs.
11. Rafael Montero adds a full point to last year’s 1.83 K/BB ratio.
12. The Mets will double last year’s win total against the Nats (4).
13. After having the fifth-best percentage in just the NL East last year, Jerry Blevins will face the highest percentage of lefty batters in the entire NL.
14. The Mets will trade for Troy Tulowitzki.
15. The Mets finish with more wins than the Yankees.
Two years ago, there were seven correct predictions. Hopefully, this year’s group gets back to that level and the goal remains to get more right than wrong.
I agree with several of your predictions, and wouldn’t be surprised by most of the others. However, as much as I’d love to see Tulo as this team’s final big piece, I just don’t foresee that happening, especially with the line of Wilmer, Reynolds, Rosario (and even Cecchini) coming up in the next few years. Too much risk of paying for past performance.
Brian, some fascinating and wild predictions! The Mets trade for Troy T is, perhaps, the wildest!
Predictions are a lot of fun; especially when they remain on record to review later.
Here are some additions:
1. The Mets release Bartolo Colon after a horrendous start. Noah S is called up, while Steve Matz gets off to a solid start, factoring in the atmosphere in Vegas.
2. SS Wilmer Flores struggles mightily, and because of the slower than expected start (.500) by the team, he is sent down to AAA to get himself together, with Matt Reynolds recalled. (Perhaps this is where Brian’s trade comes in). Reynolds holds his own defensively, and hits a solid .285 banging 9 home runs but 20 doubles.
3. DeGrom and Harvey both make the All Star team. Harvey, pulled during two shut outs, steams at Terry Collins.
4. Niese, Gee and Colon struggle, leading way for the eventual calling up of Matz.
5. Montero is also given a start and pushes his way into the rotation. He improves his K/9 and reduces walks. He is an eye opener for many.
6. The Mets break out from the .500 start and begin to make their move upward.
7. Granderson’s resurgence, however, loses steam. The NY Post stirs the pot.
8. Michael Conforto is promoted to AA in late May. The NY Daily News joins in the stirring of the outfield pot, saying the Mets are wasting their pitching talent with the lack of production from the outfield.
9. Michael Cuddyer, after a torrid start, begins to show signs of chronic injury.
10. Mayberry’s Spring utterly disappears.
11. Kirk N breaks out of his slump and proves a good, off the bench bat.
12. Lagares, confidence booming from his contract, hits .280, lots of doubles, and does, in deed, increase his SB.
13. Lucas Duda: agreed.
14. David Wright stays healthy and is…David Wright. Less GDP than predicted!
15. Murph, sitting on a coming paycheck, hustles and hits well, but is packaged with some pitchers for prospects.
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So, with my questions over Colon, Niese and Gee, and the age and injuries of Cuddyer, we have a rocky year, but pull through and make the playoffs with 93 wins.
Here’s a few of my own:
Okay, I’ve got my first one for 2015:
1) Ruben Tejada starts the fourth game of the season, gets two hits (a bloop and a dink), and Terry Collins’ head explodes.
2) Bobby Parnell never makes it all the way back.
3) Murphy hits, and hits, and hits.
4) During the 6th inning of a close game, lip-reading fans determine that Matt Harvey just told Terry Collins, “If you try to take this ball out of my hands, old man, I’ll rip out your jugular vein with my teeth and chew on it like Bazooka bubble gum.”
5) Wilmer Flores never really gets it going with the bat.
6) Bartolo Colon urges management to move the fences back. ERA above 4.50 by the time the team finally moves on.
7) How much is too much John Mayberry Jr.? We’ll know the answer to that by the end of May. Can’t hit RHP . . . at all.
8) Jake deGrom make the All-Star team. Offers to play SS on non-pitching days, Sandy jokes, “We’ll consider it!” Nobody laughs.
9) Juan Lagares improves his offensive across the board.
10) Curtis Granderson continues to struggle, mightily.
11) David Wright does okay by the numbers . . . but the bat . . . seems . . . a little . . . slooooow.
12) Jon Niese’s arm finally falls off.
13) Jenrry Meijia loses closer’s job . . . one day after Terry Collins issues a statement of support.
14) Ruben Tejada takes over SS position.
15) Anthony Recker breaks an 0-27 spell by hitting a mammoth game-winning HR.
16) Rafael Montero plays an increasingly important role out of the bullpen.
17) Jeurys Familia is the best pitcher in the pen . . . until that day he walks off the mound holding his elbow. It is the 13th game in a row he’s pitched.
18) Kirkkk shaves, but he still sucks.
19) d’Arnaud sent down to Vegas.
20) 87 wins.
Wilmer Flores breaks out: .280/22/85
Rafael Montero wins ROY.
Collins is fired after a closed door meeting in May with Alderson.
Mets win 89 games and win division.
MDD is second in ROY voting (I’m a Capricorn, don’t let things go easily)
Murphy, Gee, and Mejia get packaged to the Tigers in May.
Colon gets traded to Angels.
The Mets lead the NL in runs scored.
And who do we get back from the Tigers? I’m assuming nothing of significance from the Angels.
Kevin Ziomek, LHP and Derek Hill, OF, low minors but impressive.
Mets don’t win more than 85 games. Collins is fired mid-season (YAY!). Grandy is moved to left field. Alderson brings up Matz and Thor the same week. They join Montero, Harvey, and deGrom in the rotation. Gee, Niese, and Colon are all traded. Lagares goes wild on the base paths, and steals at least 30 bases. Cuddyer stays healthy all year and hits with power (20 HR).
Here are some of what I think will happen.
An unidentified “source” will leak something unflattering about a player.
Fred Wilpon is indicted on conspiracy to commit fraud after documents are found showing he knew about the scam since ’94.
The team will be 2 games under .500 at the All Star break and Sandy will blame everything on TC and have him fired.
A new system wide hitting philosophy will be revealed that incentivizes players to only swing at every other pitch.
I love Carlos Torres! Why are you so mean?????
Hi Melanie – Thanks for reading and commenting!
I like Torres, too. I just think he got used too much last year and it’s going to catch up with him this year.
They have monterro and Gilmartin , both normally starters in the pen, so hopefully torres won’t be the only long guy now.
Plus, if Mejia is displaced as the closer, he is capable of throwing a few innings as well.
But I like Torres a lot also. He did a great job of converting to relief work / work horse pitching and still was able to throw 5 shutout innings in a spot start at the end of his long season.
Brian, I am on board with your list except for #4 because I am not sold on Granderson and #5 because Familia is pretty solid. I am still laughing at James Preller’s #4 concerning Harvey. James I’m on board with that also.
My own two cents.The Mets will break the .500 mark and have a winning record of 83-79. They could even have a ceiling of 85 wins but that is not enough for the playoffs. The Mets had a strong spring training which leads to much optimism but to expect the spring hitting to carry into the regular season would be unreasonable. Granderson, Cuddyer and Lagares are not going to match their spring numbers but I think Wright is healthy and will.
Losing Wheeler hurt the team but there is enough starting pitching depth to compensate. The bullpen has capable, young, hard throwing arms but is the weakest link on the team, The injury to Edgin, Black’s weak shoulder, Parnells slow recovery and the lack of anyone stepping up in Spring is a cause for uneasiness. Spring training showed that Harvey is healthy and deGrom is emerging as another ace. 40% of the time the Mets will be starting a dominant pitcher. That is the reason that a winning record is assured and the hope of a playoff spot exists. Realistically it is unlikely but this is the first time in many years that at the start of a season I have optimism that anything can happen and they can go all the way.
1. The Mets are over .500 and in the Wild Card race on 7/31.
2. No moves are made at the deadline and the team falls out of the running in September.
3. Sandy Alderson uses the words “internal options” over 100 times by Labor Day.
4. Terry Collins receives a five year extension.
5. Matt Harvey is excellent. . . and people complain.
6. Sentences ending in “on track for July 2016” begin to surface for Noah Syndergaard.
7. Production begins on a Broadway musical version of “Sandy Alderson Baseball Maverick.” Abe Vigoda is picked to play Alderson and Jerry Lewis wins the coveted role of Terry Collins
8. Lucas Duda takes a step back (awkwardly.)
9. Juan Lagares takes a step forward (gracefully.)
10. April games average five hours as all eight (!!!) relievers are used every day.
11. Jake deGrom remains unfazed and unshorn.
12. 82 wins, no postseason.
Sorry for the duplicate Brian, Opening Day bug here.
Mets finished 3rd in the division behind the Nat’s and Marlins with 84 wins. No wild card. The Mets trade Colon, Gee, Murphy and Parnell at the trading deadline (Pirates.Angels,Cubs,Tigers) and DFA TC. Harvey wins 17 games and is the NL Comeback Player of the Year. Mets attendance drops below 2 million at Citifield. Lagares does his first 20-20 of his career. Syndergaard wins NL Rookie of the Year with a 12 and 2 record.
Mets win it all!
Patrick I’ve heard of wishful thinking but you are really pushing the baseball gods to the limit.