The New York Mets finished off their first series at home in dominating fashion with a three game sweep of the division rival Philadelphia Phillies. Each game of the series mirrored the various types of games these two teams have had against one another throughout the years: one low scoring pitcher’s duel, one wild roller coaster and one blowout.
It’s the last game that featured a Mets pitcher who has been lost in the shuffle with all the talk of the strong Mets pitching staff. That pitcher is Jon Niese (1.59 ERA, 1-0 in 2015, 3.85, 52-51 for his career). Entering his eighth season, Niese has been catapulted into an unfamiliar position of being the consistent veteran.
Fortunately for him, he has a great example of this to follow in Bartolo Colon, however, the younger guys may look to Niese first due to a smaller age difference. This begs the question what type of pitcher is he? When he burst onto the scene in 2008, there were projections of being a possible ace. While that quickly faded, he still had high expectations for the next few years.
Now, Niese has graduated from expectation to experienced. With that experience under his belt, it becomes a much clearer answer- he performs to the level of his competition. In the past three seasons, he has had several throw-away games.
Anyone can have a bad start against a team they never face. This is also the case with Niese. Throwing out poor single game performances against Toronto, Cleveland, Minnesota and Texas, the only teams he has multiple starts and an ERA higher than 4.50 against are Arizona, Chicago Cubs, Houston and Pittsburgh.
Of that second grouping, only Pittsburgh was a legitimate contender in that time frame. Yet, in that same span of three years, Niese posted an ERA under 3.40 in multiple starts against Washington, Atlanta, Miami, LA Dodgers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, St Louis and San Francisco.
All of those teams were either divisional games, contenders or both. In other words, he came through when the game mattered. While this is a reasonable conclusion, it is also an alarming trend. Is this the example the younger pitchers are getting? To bring your best when the game has higher stakes?
Of course the mentality isn’t intentional, but it’s not one this young team needs to adopt. The Mets as a whole have played this way far too frequently in their storied history. Ignoring that warning sign could result in history repeating.
This doesn’t make Jon Niese a reincarnation of Tom Glavine in Queens, but it does raise a red flag as to whether Niese can turn the corner and be the pitcher the Mets are counting on for a long-term basis. While he showed flashes of turning that corner by pitching well against Philly last night (6.1 IP, one ER, 4 K, 2 BB), still, it was a big game for him.
His first start of the season against Atlanta (5 IP, three ER, 2 K, 2 BB) was a bad outing. A strong rebound against Philly was a necessity for his to get on track and in the win column for the first time this season. Even these first two starts are a microcosm of his pitching career: Atlanta, despite starting off well this season isn’t expected to amount to much and Philly was personally a big game.
While the end results show consistency in his statistics, a closer look shows a fractured consistency that points to just how much further Niese still has left to go to get to those original expectations.
As long as he is pitching down to his competition, those expectations will remain just that; expectations.
Last year Niese had an ERA of 3.40; Colon had one of 4.00. Yet Jon has to learn from Bartolo for consistency? How so?
I believe I was saying he had Colon as an example of how to be that veteran presence. Not necessarily how to be consistent
Also, I think some teams are particularly vulnerable against LHP — the Phillies are a great example — while others are much less so. I don’t know that it tells us anything about Niese’s consistency.
Niese has been an unappreciated pitcher during his tenure with the Mets because his Won-Loss record hasn’t matched his peripherals. Last year, he had the worst run support of the team’s primary SP.
But he was lucky against the Phillies last night. Outside of the third inning, he really labored out there and he did not pitch nearly as good as his line indicated.
He’s going to have to pitch better next time out.
Niese has made the move to “Crafty”. His velocity is way down, and that should be a source of concern. Some Lefties (in Particular) have managed to be very successful at 90 and below— Niese has yet to show that he can succeed against a good lineup with “slop”–he’s always had 91-92-93 in his Quiver. It doesn’t seem to be there now.
Good hitters in deep lineups are smart…like Niese is Smart. I believe he’ll compete, but I’m realistic that he may not have the weapons.
That is most definitely an outstanding point. Perhaps what should be monitored most of all.
Nice points Frank, I never really thought about the younger guys looking up to Niese, but they must in some regard. I think every pitcher steps up their game against a good team, but the statistics against the worst teams are alarming, even if it is the first appearance against the team. I hope Niese can keep doing what he’s been doing the past couple of years, and I think he will take a nice step forward this season.
Jon Niese has a career 3.84 ERA and in the past three years it has been 3.40, 3.70 and 3.4 which has shown that he has improved. In the last three years he has accumulated a 5.8 bWAR. The point is that he is a solid middle of the rotation pitcher at a very fair and reasonable price. That is all I expect of Jon Niese and I am quite satisfied with his results.