Mets jump out to strong start versus NL East foes

Much has been made about how the Mets’ early-season schedule features an abundance of in-division games. Not nearly enough has been made of the fact that on a whole, the East stinks. And that’s something you can bet on. You can keep track of your bets like this at http://www.betbind.com/. You have the Nationals, who are really good, the Mets and Marlins, who could be just about anything, and the Braves and Phillies, who stink.

Many fans are hesitant to put the Braves in the same area with the Phillies. And if they were still being run by Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz, I’d be right there with them. But this Braves team is bad. Of course as they sit tied for the division lead at 6-3, perhaps you’re not convinced of their being one of the worst teams in the league. But, like in life itself, timing is everything and the Braves have had some fortuitous things go their way here in the early going.

Last year the Braves finished 14th in the 15-team NL in runs per game, edging out only the San Diego Padres. From that team, they’ve removed three players with an OPS+ above 100, including Evan Gattis and his 125 OPS+ and Justin Upton’s 132 mark. An optimist might think Nick Markakis can replace Jason Heyward’s 108 OPS+. But unless you think Alberto Callaspo or Johnny Gomes or Cameron Maybin (who’ve all started strongly) have breakout potential, it’s difficult to see the Braves matching their offensive pace from a year ago.

Atlanta took advantage of some bad Marlins overall play and bad Mets defense to score 26 runs in their first five games. In the four games since then, they’ve scored 10. This is a team that is consistently going to score two or three runs per game and no matter how good your staff is, it’s tough to win when your pitchers have to give up two runs or fewer on a regular basis. Even with the good start, Atlanta has scored three or fewer runs in six of their nine games.

Last year the Braves scored 573 runs. The over/under for this year’s club has to be beneath that, with 550 being a reasonable number. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if their total was closer to 525 and if you gave me decent odds, you could talk me into a wager where they scored fewer than 500

The Braves already have 2-1, 2-0 and 3-2 wins under their belt. The first two of those came against the Marlins in the opening series when they held the Fish to just three runs in three games. In their second match-up with Miami, the same Fish tallied 16 runs in a three-game set and won two of three. Neither series may be indicative of the Marlins’ expected offensive performance but if forced to guess, most of us would pick the latter as more representative.

Many people view the Marlins as the second-best team in the division. But they seem to be a team counting on everything going right. They need Giancarlo Stanton to stay healthy, Christian Yelich to take a step forward, Jarrod Saltalamacchia to revert back to 2013 form and Mike Morse to be the guy who put up a 130 OPS+ in 2014, not the one who put up a 100 mark in 2012-2013.

And while everyone raves about their pitching, Henderson Alvarez is the only one who has a FIP beneath 4.00 here in the early going. Dan Haren hasn’t posted an ERA better than league-average since 2011, Jarred Cosart is a RHP attempting to succeed with a sub-6.0 K/9 rate and if Mat Latos can’t bounce back to pre-2014 performance, this staff could be in serious trouble.

The Mets open a four-game series with the Marlins, hoping that Dillon Gee can reverse his 14-game slide. But unlike Atlanta, Miami will not avoid facing the Mets’ two aces. And when he keeps the ball in the park, Bartolo Colon is still capable of giving the other team fits. Both teams are likely to use the series as an early-season measuring stick. A series win and Miami climbs right back into things. If the Mets come out on top, they can push the Marlins firmly into a grouping with the bottom feeders, despite having no games played yet against the Nationals.

The less said about the Phillies, the better. If you’re looking for positives, the back of the bullpen looks solid, although Jonathan Papelbon is likely to end the year with another team. Chase Utley still shows flashes of the all-around terrific player who put up five straight seasons with an OPS of .900 or better before injuries set in. And Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera looks like an asset. But this is a team that should be happy if it avoids 95 losses. Let’s move on.

Now for the big, bad boys from Washington. The Mets caught a break playing them with several of their stars out of the lineup. Still, after winning just four games against them in 2014, the last thing the Mets should do is apologize for winning two of the first three matchups in 2015. The Nationals’ SP is talented and deep and once everyone returns to the lineup, they’ll have the best offense in the division. The only question marks are the bullpen and the defense and it’s not like either of those are a major worry.

So, we have a Washington team that should challenge for a 100-win season and a Phillies team that will challenge for 100 losses. If everything breaks right, the Marlins could win 85 games and the Braves 75. Both totals will be lower.

The Mets played well against the Marlins in 2014, winning 11 of the 19 games. Thursday night they get their first crack against the club. If the Mets win the series, they’ll be well on their way towards a winning season in 2015.