*Author’s note:
This was originally written and is accurate as of Thursday afternoon.
The plan was to run this story before the Mets bested the Marlins 7-5 that evening. That game exemplified almost everything written in this story, which did not run in time.
New York came back twice in the game, even after yielding a bases-loaded walk in a tie game and an error to that re-tied the game with an unearned run. Four different Mets scored a teammate, twice with two outs. They grounded into a double play, but stole a base. They made a throwing error, but turned a double play.
The starting pitcher wasn’t one of the young guns and gave up too many runs, but pushed into the sixth inning. The bullpen surrendered the unearned run after the error, but allowed no further scoring in 3.1 innings of relief. Hell, this hodgepodge collection of pitchers struck out 4 and allowed 3 total base runners.
Through 10 games, the New York Mets are alone atop the NL East with a 7-3 record.
Last night’s game almost makes my story gratuitous, keyword almost.
-MK
Maybe there was something in the Port St. Lucie water, but this Mets team has some fight in them.
Small size warnings abound, through nine games the 2015 Mets are a scrappy bunch. They’re 6-3 record has been an interesting tale of adversity and spunk.
All spring the buzz around Mets camp was their swagger; they bought into a genuine playoff hunt. Perhaps some was artificially produced by management after failed promises in 2014, but not all. Matt Harvey is one of the best young arms in the game and he knows it. The laid back Zack Wheeler may be gone for the year, but uber-competitive Jacob deGrom offers a little more chutzpah. He may be resting a strained hammy for a bit, but el capitán David Wright has turned the corner as the clubhouse boss with support from childhood friend and respected veteran Michael Cuddyer. Even Juan Lagares’ flashy personality has reportedly emerged.
Winning is the ultimate cure all. The 1986 Mets were cocky troublemakers who liked to party, but nobody cared so long as they humiliated their opponents. The 2006 Mets had young and hungry stars in Wright and Jose Reyes, wise veterans in Carlos Delgado and Pedro Martinez, and the always-underrated Carlos Beltran. But when the franchise slid into the basement the years following, not only did they become losers, but they became boring. Skipper Willie Randolph wanted to be a serious Yankee and Jerry Manuel’s sage approach looked foolish on a losing club; Reyes was shipped out of town in 2011; and ownership continuously refused to spend money on talent.
The franchise finally showed signs of life in 2013 when Harvey hit the scene and used a strong second half to jump into a distant second behind the Braves last season. Fans were promised young talent would some day arrive in Queens and bring New York to the promised lands, even if that didn’t happen in 2014 as planned.
But the 2015 Mets may get there. They’re tied for the second best record this early in the season – the 2006 squad started 8-1 – and there’s no shortage of confidence amid injuries and suspensions.
Mets faithful were shocked to learn MLB suspended Jenrry Mejia 80 games for drug use. The bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but with hard-throwing Vic Black and 2013 closer Bobby Parnell still on the mend, doubts begin to arise. And yet, they’ve cobbled the remaining pieces into a surprisingly strong relief corps. Setup man Jeurys Familia has a 3.86 ERA but hasn’t blown a save in 3 chances. Former swingman Carlos Torres has 3 holds to show for his new role as setup man and starting pitching hopeful Rafael Montero is finding big league innings late in games.
Unsurprisingly, pitching is the theme of this team. Fans knew it coming into the season, analysts knew it, even opposing teams feared New York’s pitching. And even without Wheeler, Mejia, Parnell or Black, they’ve been dominant. The pitching staff is fifth in all of baseball with both a 2.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Their 7 quality starts is second in baseball, just one behind San Diego – who’s played a tenth game, consistently giving hitters a chance to grab the lead. Their 4 saves is tied with Kansas City for fifth best in baseball and alludes to the lack of rallies against the bullpen. A ridiculously low walks per game – 4.18 for no. 4 – makes the club’s just above average strikeouts per 9 innings stand out; Harvey and four relievers each have double-digit K/9 ratios.
Powered by pitching, the team is finding ways to win with a mediocre offense – no. 17 in runs scored throughout the league. Once again, New York is focused more on getting on base than trying to take multiple bases. The Mets are no. 12 in batting average and no. 10 in on-base percentage, but no. 23 in slugging. Compared to the average National League team, they’re on par in total at-bats and runs, boast a significantly higher OBP and have a significantly lower total bases, SLG and on-base plus slugging. The trend is even starker from the seventh inning and beyond; their .200 batting average and .271 slugging percentage are worse than most of baseball but a .314 OBP is in the top half. All but one of their five stolen bases have also come late in games. They’re slightly better than average in swiping bases, although the Mets are one of four teams yet to be thrown out.
Offense takes precedent in several position battles and led to a second-rate defense. Both Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy have limited range manning the middle of the infield, despite Lagares’ gold glove play in centerfield. Among all 30 clubs, the Mets are no. 19 in fielding percentage with .982, albeit in a very limited range of .997-.971. They don’t turn a ton of double plays, although they did turn four against the Phillies. Catcher Travis d’Arnaud doesn’t have a passed ball for his framing efforts, although he’s caught just one of four base runners – putting him in the middle of the pack for combined defense.
Despite having mediocre bats and gloves to go with their great pitching, the Mets are finding ways to win. They scored 6 unearned runs on Ian Desmond’s three errors to beat the vaulted Nationals. They have a winning record, 2-1, in one-run games and have yet to lose a game by more than 2 runs. They’re tied for first in the NL East despite missing an all-star third baseman, emerging top-of the rotation pitcher, two closers and a late-inning arm. They’re not great at pinch-hitting, tied for no. 21 with St. Louis with a .100 average, but they’re a tick above other National League teams at scoring per hit. There is some evidence the offense will improve. The team’s .239 batting average, .279 BABIP and -1.61 OWAR are all spot on with the MLB average, offering room to grow with the right moves. And even if no player transactions don’t occur and nobody has an epiphany about hitting baseballs, last year’s numbers suggest the average is too low. Comparing all 30 teams in 2014, the average BABIP was .300, batting average was .250 and OWAR was -26.05 – the Mets’ -54 was significantly higher than both the average and -40.1 median.
It is just nine (and sometimes 10) games into the season, but there are signs New York is overachieving and could improve as the dog days of summer arrive. With all of the cockiness this spring and hype surrounding the youth influx in recent years, Mets management should brace themselves for a disappointed fan base if a playoff hunt doesn’t materialize.
Duda and d’Arnaud are carrying the offense so far, and they are appropriately hitting 2 and 3 right now. If we can find a fifth starter who won’t give up four runs every 6 innings, we should have enough offense to compete all year long.
Can’t imagine Gee will keep struggling like he is. A 4.00 ERA in 150 innings would have him give up just under 3 ER in a 6-inning start. Really hope he can do that after three low-4s and one mid-3 years.
Mike you are 100% right that the pitching will carry this team. Harvey and deGrom starting 40% of the time is a great advantage. It is also a reasonable assurance that a long losing streak can be avoided.
This weekend could put the Marlins in a huge hole and maintain the early advantage over the Nats. deGrom and Harvey are pitching and I think they smell blood!
Pitching wins ballgames, and that’s definitely what the Mets are banking on. You’re absolutely right Mike, this team wants to win, and they are confident that they are going to do it. Not too many outsiders believe in the Mets this season, and think they will finish in third behind the Marlins. Doesn’t matter what anyone thinks, this team is going to be competitive throughout the entire season, and the 7-5 victory against the Marlins definitely proved that.