We’re still very early in the season, which means we’re still deep into small sample size territory. That doesn’t mean we can’t start analyzing what’s happened so far, though, especially against the backdrop of the questions with which we entered the season. One of those major questions regarded what we could expect from a post-surgery Matt Harvey.
His Spring Training performance went a long way in answering that question, of course. Harvey ended his spring with 21 K, 1 BB, a 1.19 ERA, and a 0.79 WHIP in 22.2 innings of work. That’s not too shabby, especially considering it was somewhat expected that he’d struggle a bit in his return to action.
The high-quality outings have translated into the regular season so far, albeit in only two starts. In his 12 innings over two starts, Harvey has an ERA of 2.25 with 17 K, 1 BB, and a 0.83 WHIP. His ERA has outperformed his FIP, which currently sits at 3.06. We’re getting a bit too deep with so little data here, but the performance suggests he’s going to be just fine.*
Beyond the traditional stats that hold limited value in such a small sample, there’s another indicator at our disposal to examine if Harvey has picked up where he left off (and possibly put collective minds at ease): the velocity of his pitches. The table below presents the average release speed of Harvey’s pitches from 2011 through his first two starts in 2015, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.
| Year | Fourseam | Sinker | Change | Slider | Curve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 94.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2012 | 95.78 | 95.22 | 86.66 | 89.13 | 83.03 |
| 2013 | 96.96 | 0.00 | 88.21 | 90.86 | 84.54 |
| 2015 | 96.54 | 96.49 | 88.27 | 88.57 | 83.01 |
The good news here is that he’s essentially sustained the velocity of all of his pitches. The roughly two-mile-per-hour drop in slider velocity is a bit concerning, if for no other reason than the pitch was so important to his success in 2013. Remember that these are averages, though, and in this case we’re talking about the average of the seven total sliders he’s thrown so far this season. In fact, he’s thrown his four-seamer much more frequently (116) than his slider.
He’s relied too heavily on his fastball thus far, a fact that he admitted after his last start. In 2013 his ratio of four-seamer to slider was about 3-to-1, so look for him to get back to somewhere near there to be at his most dominant. Additionally, Harvey’s max speed for each pitch is around 2013 levels except for, you guessed it, the slider. In this case, his fastest slider in 2015 (89.98) is more than four miles per hour slower than in 2013 (94.23). That’d be more concerning had he thrown more than seven so far, but it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward. Although it’s currently lagging a bit, his “power slider” is an important key to his success.
The point here is that Harvey is a power pitcher’s power pitcher and velocity is an important part of his game. He’s obviously not simply a hard “thrower,” but his ability to locate and “pitch” is greatly complimented by his above-average velocity. Right now he’s basically hitting on all notes right out of the gate. It’s all Mets fans could have hoped for and more from their returning ace.
*Harvey being “just fine” is really all relative in this case. There’s no predicting how complete his return will end up being, but that’s a conversation for another day…
Rob, an informative and knowledgeable article that you presented without drawing conclusions. It will give us something to observe in the future. Thanks
Thanks, Metsense!
Well done, Rob. There was an interesting piece (I believe at Beyond the Box Score) before last season that a pitcher’s velocity tends to stabilize in about three starts. So if there’s a problem with a pitcher’s velocity you’ll know quickly. In Harvey’s case here, I think we can confidently say that the velocity is not going to be an issue right now.
As far as the decrease in slider speed, I wonder if that’s a medical thing where he’s consciously taking velocity off to put less stress on his elbow.
That’s a good question, Joe. Research by Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs has shown that pitchers who throw a lot of sliders (30%+) tend to get injured.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/curve-ball-and-slider-pitchers-and-the-dl/
Seeing as Harvey tends to use his less than 20%, that probably doesn’t apply here. Even so, like you said, I wonder if he’s purposely slowing it down and using it less either on his own or based on advice post-surgery.
Enjoyed the read Rob. Amd overall I’m in a lot of agreement. Let me pose the following. I think he is intentionally slowing down the off speed stuff to have another look. Imagine 2 change ups 5 mph apart but looking identical. Expanding speed differential is exactly what a maturing pitcher intent on dominating the universe would do. I think he becomes more a threat.
Good point, Chris. His power slider was such an important part of his success, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how this evolves if it is a purposeful strategy.
I was just wondering about this other day Rob. This is great research to see how he has come back from Tommy John. I wonder if taking a little off of his slider to get more movement on it. Either way I’m glad to see he’s been doing this well so far in the season. Hopefully he can keep it up throughout the entire year.
Great article! My only concern about Harvey is actually his control early in his last two starts. He’s been so hyped that he was wild in the strike zone up high. That resulted in long balls. He will get that under control but for now it’s the only real chink in his armor.