Going into the spring of 2015, the talk around the New York Mets was rarely about Bartolo Colon, unless a remark was made on the need to ship him out. Colon had been poor trade bait last summer, and it seemed management’s thinking was to hold on for better return later. While Colon’s price tag climbed to $11 million for this year, and a 4.09 ERA from last year didn’t mean that other teams were breaking down the door, the portly right-hander still had some value left, right? After all, he’s been consistent, having pitched at least 150 innings for the past four years. At the very least he is a reliable back-end of the rotation veteran presence. When it was announced Colon was to be the Mets Opening Day starter, a collective eye roll and chuckle when up around the league.
Three games into the new season and a lot of critics are eating crow, as Colon is sporting a 2.25 ERA with 18 strikeouts to just a solitary walk. Not only was he able to keep a beat-up Nationals team at bay on Opening Day, but he was the only starter who could topple the then cruising Atlanta Braves in the following series. That same win sparked the eight-game winning streak the Mets are now enjoying. Colon’s numbers are aided by a .222 BABIP from batters, his FIP stands at 3.31, over a run higher than his ERA, and his LOB% (Left On Base Percentage) is far above average at 93.2%. In each category there is a reasonable expectation that his numbers will return to earth, and he will begin to get hit a little more. But will those expectations occur immediately?
What seems different about Colon this season versus last, is that there is a crispness to his pitches that’s keeping hitters off-balance. As that is a subjective description, let’s try to quantify that statement. His O-Swing% (the rate at which opposing hitters swing at pitches out of the strike zone) is 31.2%. That is the highest rate he’s had since 2007 (the earliest Fangraphs.com has data available). Meanwhile batters are swinging at more pitches overall, shown by his 51.2 Swing% (highest since 2007), but making less contact, shown by his Contact% of 83.1 (lowest since 2007). So are we looking at a career year, or just three lucky games?
Luck certainly does have something to contribute. As mentioned, the Nationals were missing Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Denard Span. The Braves, while previously on a winning roll, have been the victims of inconsistent offense at times this young year. The Marlins looked plain terrible the first two games of the four-game set, so Colon was able to work around six hits, with just the one leaving the park. But these are teams that have had issues in the early goings, and Colon has taken advantage of those to collect wins for his team. That’s what he does to survive, he takes advantage of weakness.
The only somewhat worrying aspect of Colon’s game so far as been those home runs. He has let up a long ball in each of his first three games, but none have come to haunt him yet. That may change, as we all remember games where Colon got shellacked for five runs or more. It happened eight times last year. For now though, it seems like Colon is possibly returning to 2013 form rather than 2014. The rate at which hitters are making contact with pitches in the zone versus Colon, (Z-Contact%) currently stands at the same total of 2013, 89.1%. Certainly three games does not make a season, but it’s at least nice to see the 41-year-old emulating past success.
This success seems in part based on Colon’s return to setting up batters with his fastball. As Colon’s velocity has gone down over the years, so has his rate of using that pitch. In 2012 with the Athletics, Colon’s fastball percentage was down to a record low 34.2%. In 2013 he increased that rate back up to 38% in his last year with Oakland. In his first year with the Mets, that rate plummeted all the way down to 29.3%, and as a result Colon started using his two-seam fastball and slider with much more regularity. So far this year, the big man is returning to 2013-level rates on all of those pitches, but especially important is the fastball rates This all gives at least a modicum of confidence that Colon will still know how to keep batters’ timing off when he turns 42 in a few months. Now why does that number seem familiar?
It would be hard for Colon to completely avoid getting shelled at least a few times, because his stuff just isn’t what it used to be. So if he doesn’t hit his spots, he can exit a game quickly. But as long as he keeps up how he approaches the hitters, he may offer the Mets more than the assumed 4.00+ ERA many fans are reserving for him. And while he may still be traded once young Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz are ready to come up, at least he might offer much more in return than he did last year.
Oh, and did I mention Colon has driven in two runs so far this year with the bat? That’s only 28% of his total career RBI. So maybe the dominating Dominican has something left to teach us all still.
I think it’s fabulous that Colon has pitched so well thus far. There’s a joyful quality to his game — the way he pops the ball into the air, playing catch with himself on the mound, as he considers the next batter — and it’s a pleasure to watch.
At his best, he reminds me of aging Orlando Hernandez, who was so important to the Mets in 2006, and whose injury really hurt their playoff run.
That said, it’s far too early for any skeptic to eat crow. I believe today’s date is April 21st.
What a gift it would be if Colon had another 2013 season left in him!
We saw last year that Colon was still capable of being a very effective hurler. From April 19 – June 24, he had 9 Quality Starts in 12 outings and a 3.16 ERA overall. From July 23 – Sept. 5 he had 6 QS in 8 games with a 3.57 ERA overall.
The problem is that when he doesn’t have it — he doesn’t have it. I find it hard to believe that this “bad Colon” won’t show up at least as much in 2015 as he did in 2014. That’s when it would be nice to have a Dillon Gee true long man in the bullpen.
Instead of having a 2 beer limit we should ask TC to give Colon a 3 or 4 run cap. We know he’s due so why not try to keep the damage to a minimum? Maybe the youngsters can learn something from Colon. It isn’t necessary to “throw” every pitch at maximum velocity. Colon is a pitcher. No arm troubles. Just hope he doesn’t over extend himself on the base paths.
If you want them to learn the benefits of injecting anabolic steroids, Bartolo is your guy. He received stem cell treatment — in the Dominican Republic — after missing a full season due to elbow surgery. Fortunately, the illegal substances worked and he revived his career.
Let’s be real about what he is and how he’s accomplished it.
Off-Topic, but: Does the flare-up with the Reds manager make Terry Collins look good? Force us to appreciate him a little more?
I kind of think it does in that respect. In NY, handling the media is no small part of the job.
The Mets’ 10-3 record makes Collins look good.
Collins hasn’t ripped off his shirt and challenged anyone to a fight, either — should that make us appreciate him more? I don’t think failing to be the worst at a particular aspect of your job is grounds for celebration.
Collins brought professionalism back to the managerial chair and for that I thank him. But you know what, that got him a passing grade in 2011. It’s not a feather in his cap in 2015. When my daughter first learned to talk, it was a big thing. But we don’t make a big deal out of it all these years later.
Colon is always an adventure. He’s quirky and fun to watch. I like his emotion. It’s infectious to that clubhouse
I had some of that crow in my oatmeal this morning. Being early, it was just a tad mixed in, but Colon has surprised me thus far.
Reading about what teammates think of him has been refreshing, as well as how some say how physically strong he is in the weight room. I agree: he brings an air of fun to the Mets.
Having said that, I’d like to see Matz take Gee’s spot in the rotation. Perhaps Bartolo can mentor our young arms along the way.
He’s a fun guy to have on the team. Een when he’s not at his best he’s a reliable innings eater. I wouldnt say trading him is a forgone conclusion. Given the injury to Wheeler, the uncertainty of Niese’s shoulder and the early innefectiveness of Gee, he might not be the one who has to make way for Thor or Matz.
If I were Colon, I’d be most worried about the looming curse of the Mets360 banner. So far it’s taken down Wheeler, Wright, and d’Arnaud. Watch your back, Bartolo (and Curtis)!
Is it possible hes learned the hitters after a season in the nl?
1. I don’t know why people are surprised at the success of Colon. He had multiple stretches where he was good last year
2. I don’t know why people use the word “reliable” with Colon. If anything, he’s an extreme hit or miss pitcher.
This was the rollercoaster ride last season:
2 starts : 2.08 ERA
6 starts : 7.18 ERA
7 starts : 1.58 ERA
4 starts : 5.88 ERA
6 starts : 2.88 ERA (including 1 bad start of 6 ER)
6 starts : 5.40 ERA
So the trend last year was alternating between ~6 good starts and then ~6 bad starts
If Colon can get to 10-12 starts this season without being such a hot or cold pitcher, then i’ll start to believe.
What I don’t understand is how he was able to pitch to a 3 ERA in the AL where teams usually don’t have a weak 8 and 9 hitter. He was facing a DH before now he gets almost 2 automatic outs in every line up and pitched to a 4 ERA.
I believe James there is a difference between stem cell replacement and anabolic steroids? Would he not of tested positive for the steroids? MLB does have a testing program in place during the off season for players no matter where they are. Even in the Dominican Republic where prescription drugs are available over the counter. I would like to think that because of this players from D.R. are going to be subject to more testing. My point was that Colon is not a workout freak. Kinda reminds me of Homer Simpson. He knows how to “pitch”. Rather than rely on over powering batters.
I believe James there is a difference between stem cell replacement and anabolic steroids? Would he not of tested positive for the steroids? MLB does have a testing program in place during the off season for players no matter where they are. Even in the Dominican Republic where prescription drugs are available over the counter. I would like to think that because of this players from D.R. are going to be subject to more testing. My point was that Colon is not a workout freak. Kinda reminds me of Homer Simpson. He knows how to “pitch”. Rather than rely on over powering batters.