One of the bigger questions heading into the 2015 season was how much production the Mets could realistically expect from their aging corner outfielders Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer. The Mets signed Granderson in the winter of 2013 to what remains the largest free-agent contract during Sandy Alderson’s time as the team’s General Manager. The outfield was an extreme weak spot on the roster at that point and the hope was that Granderson would be a large part of remedying that particular shortcoming. While Granderson’s 2014 season was his worst since 2005 according to fWAR (1.2), it was a step in the right direction.
The problem was that, beyond he and Juan Lagares, the players to spend the most time in the outfield for the 2014 Mets were Bobby Abreu, Eric Young Jr., and Chris Young. The Mets pounced on Cuddyer early last off-season despite the fact they’d lose their 2015 first-round draft pick for signing him. This signaled that the team felt it was ready to compete and acknowledged the need for an upgrade in the outfield. The signing of the 35-year-old Cuddyer to a two-year deal was more of a stopgap measure than a major upgrade, but the team nonetheless hoped to get solid production from him until one of their outfield prospects is ready.
The results so far have been disappointing. He mashed his way through Spring Training with an OPS of .962. That was almost entirely supported by a ridiculous .667 SLG, including six home runs in just 60 at-bats. Although he didn’t walk much (once), his strikeouts remained at a level that reflected what one would expect from him based on his career averages. However, when the switch was flipped to the regular season all of that seemed to flip upside down.
So far this season he’s struck out in 25.8% of his plate appearances, well above his career average. He’s walked at a 9.1% clip, which is slightly above his career average. His slugging sits at a low .390 and his ISO is at .136, but his OBP is a somewhat respectable .333 given how much he’s struck out. This falls in line with how the Mets’ offense has mostly performed thus far this season: he’s finding his way on base, but really not hitting for any power. Additionally, his .254 batting average is essentially being supported by his high BABIP (.341). To be fair, Cuddyer has had a history of producing full seasons with a higher-than-average BABIP. In fact, in his last full-ish season in 2013 he finished with a BABIP of .382.
So what’s with all the strikeouts? As we can see here, he’s not really swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone (O-Swing%) this year (36.2%) than in his most recent seasons. The problem is that he’s missing (O-Contact%) on those pitches more than he has in recent seasons (60.8%). His swinging strike rate is actually at 12%, higher than in any other season. As always, remember that early percentages are prone to huge fluctuations.
The good news is that, after striking out 12 times in his first eight games, he’s struck out only five times in his last eight. Unfortunately, he’s hit for a low average and little power over that span as well. That lack of power is a concern as well. It’s not jus
So what’s with all the strikeouts? As we can see here, he’s not really swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone (O-Swing%) this year (36.2%) than in his most recent seasons. The problem is that he’s missing (O-Contact%) on those pitches more than he has in recent seasons (60.8%). His swinging strike rate is actually at 12%, higher than in any other season. As always, remember that early percentages are prone to huge fluctuations.
The good news is that, after striking out 12 times in his first eight games, he’s struck out only five times in his last eight. Unfortunately, he’s hit for a low average and little power over that span as well. That lack of power is a concern as well. It’s not just the low number of extra base hits, it’s also the weak contact he’s been making. This was touched on a bit by Brian Joura yesterday:
“Among players who’ve hit the ball at least 20 times, the Met with the slowest top batted ball velocity is Michael Cuddyer, with a mark of 101 mph. Cuddyer also holds the mark for weakest contact on a ball, with one hit that only went 40 mph. And to complete the trifecta, Cuddyer has the weakest average contact of 82.64 mph, the ninth-worst rate among those who’ve hit the ball 20 times.”
That’s not a great sign, especially coming from your cleanup hitter. Then again, it seems no one but Terry Collins expected to see Cuddyer in the number four spot regularly this season.
At 36 years old, is this simply what we should expect from Cuddyer at this stage of his career? It might be that his days of 20+ home runs and a high-ish average are behind him. That wouldn’t be a surprise at his age, but a full-season performance in line with what he’s done so far shouldn’t be something we expect either.
It seems that, for the most part, he’s starting to make some of the adjustments he needs to make. The weaker contact is definitely a concern, however, and could be a sign of things to come. It’s still too early to be overly concerned, but this team will need a better performance from him (among others) if they hope to continue to make noise this season. He’s not the only player to have a disappointing start, but he’s one of the most important.
I think it’s too early to judge Cuddyer. The Nets are winning and he played a key part early in the streak. His numbers are down due to a recent slump. He’s a professional hitter and probably needs a day off. I fully expect at least a 750 OPS over the course of the season. Not great numbers, but better than what the Mets had from leftfield last year.
Agreed. The moment he begins approaching Chris Young LF numbers from last year (ie- Mr. Rally Killer pop up with men at the corners and less than two outs) … then we begin the “disappointment meme”
Thus far, his limited production has had him in the center of each of these 3-4-5 run innings the Mets have put up during the Streak. This really has been the difference in those 11 games, preventing us from going toe-to-toe with the 1-run nail biters every night. And, the fact that Cuddyer has put these numbers up while batting in front of Murph every night has been even more remarkable. I’m surprised he even gets anything to hit.
When Wright and d’Arnoud return, this will be a much more potent offense, and one that will have Cuddyer’s strengths getting highlighted rather than us nitpicking on these stats in April.
Yeah, I’m not worried about Cuddyer. But Murphy is another story. His head is somewhere other than earth when he’s “fielding” and he’s an easy out most of the time when he’s “batting”! Of course, it’s a small sample, but, hey, check out Dilson Herrera at AAA: He’s around .380/.400/.500, with no errors. He also runs hard to first base—something the “hustling” Murph doesn’t do much of the time.
And I used to like Murph. Now, I just want him gone…..
Around the end of May, Herrera will be called up (to give the Mets another year of service time, as I understand the rules). That gives Murphy another month or so to hit with authority and field decently.
I still think that HBP on Murph’s hand during ST is affecting his swing. I was at that game, and the crack of the ball hitting his hand (and Murph’s ensuing wail) was just awful. I swear it sounded like someone got cracked in the skull with a wooden bat while standing right next to me (and I was a few rows back from the dugout when it happened)
Let’s hope he turns it around.
Success goes beyond the numbers don’t forget. Cuddyer has been a major upgrade in the club house keeping everyone relaxes and helping keep good team chemistry. Call me old fashioned…but we all know that is how teams actually have successful seasons.
Give him some more time…if no significant improvement by june then thete is a problem… Conforto anyone?
I guess if you were the most bullish on him coming into the season projecting .270/.355/.490 (https://mets360.com/?p=24663), what Cuddyer has done is “disappointing”
But for the others who weren’t as bullish I think Cuddyer has been doing OK so far. His triple slash line is at .250/.324/.375, but we’re still at the point in the season where hitting 1 HR can raise your SLG by 50-60 points. He’s been contributing solidly in the rallies the Mets have had and his bad defense hasn’t hurt us yet. The extremely high K-rate is concerning because it’s not coming with more power and only a slightly higher walk rate, but again, it’s still early.
I think that once Wright or TDA comes back, if Cuddyer’s power isn’t showing, he should be shifted to the 2-hole, with Wright/TDA going cleanup. When both are back, Wright goes back to 2 with TDA occupying the cleanup spot and Cuddyer further down in the lineup.
His single versus Sabathia was a hard hit ball— mostly lacking during his first few weeks as a Met. At one point his BABIP was above .500…and it was a full dose of infield hits, bloops, 32 hoppers.
His ab’s have looked “mneh”—- i hope for more good ab’s
I was the least bullish on Cuddy. I never liked the signing. I would be pleasantly surprised to just see him stay healthy enough to play in 100 games this year. He’s a great clubhouse guy and might have a little left with his bat but he should be a DH at this point. An injury prone, aging player should not be expected to play OF regularly. My bold prediction is that the big trade the Mets will need to make at the A-S break is not for a SS but for a left fielder. Cuddyer is likely to wind up on the DL and a platoon of Newy/Mayberry is weak.