Jon Niese goes to the mound tonight as the Mets look to take the rubber game of the road series against the Yankees. Niese has had pretty good success versus the Yankees in his career, with a 2.05 ERA and 5 BB and 22 Ks in 26.1 IP. He’s also 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA this season. On the surface, things look great for the Mets to win their fourth straight series.
But while Niese’s traditional stats look great, once we look a little deeper we see things that are far less rosy. The first thing that jumps out is that his three starts have come against the Braves (2X) and the Phillies. Atlanta is below average with a 3.82 runs per game average and Philadelphia is last in the league with a 2.44 rpg mark.
Yet the quality of competition is not nearly as alarming as, well, just about everything else in his pitching line. With a 4.75 FIP, it’s safe to say that Niese is far exceeding his peripherals. His K/BB ratio of 1.38 is easily the worst mark on the Mets’ staff and the 13th-worst mark in the majors. And while he has an elevated HR/FB ratio of 20.0 that’s more than neutralized by his 91.6 LOB%. Niese has a 72.4 LOB% in his career.
Niese had his most productive season in 2011, with a 3.36 FIP and a 3.28 xFIP, both career-best marks. That year his FanGraphs Pitch Type breakdowns were as follows:
54.9 – Fastball
22.9 – Curveball
17.2 – Cutter
5.1 – Changeup
Fast forward to 2015 and we see he’s throwing 40% fewer curves and now his change is his second-most thrown pitch after the fastball. Common sense tells us that it’s easier to throw a change than any other pitch. It’s possible that Niese is throwing more changes to save wear and tear on his body. Or it’s possible that his curve, once a 12-to-6 thing of beauty, is nowhere near the pitch it once was.
Much has been made of the declining velocity on Niese’s fastball. Back in 2011, he averaged 90.6 with his fastball and this year it’s down to 88.4, consistent with last year’s 88.5 mark. A drop of two mph is definitely alarming. But perhaps even more stunning is the drop in break with his curve.
According to Texas Leaguers, Niese’s curve in 2011 had a vertical drop of 9.5 and a 5.79 horizontal movement. So far this year, the curve has a 5.01 vertical drop and a 1.99 horizontal movement. His curve is not breaking as sharply or as widely as it used to. Because of this, it’s gone from a pitch that generated a swing-and-a-miss 12.0% of the time in 2011 to one that gets whiffs just 4.7% of the time here in 2015.
So, how on earth is a guy who’s losing velocity and break in alarming amounts still successful at all, even if it’s against the dregs of the league? Certainly luck, as evidenced by his strand rate, is part of the reason. Also, here in the early going of 2015, Niese has presented as an extreme ground ball pitcher, with a 3.60 GB/FB rate, the third-best rate in the majors. Compare that to his lifetime 1.67 GB/FB rate and his 1.60 mark in 2014.
It’s too early to declare Niese a complete groundball guy but certainly his numbers in this category are worth watching going forward. With questions about the range of both middle infielders in play, it’s debatable if this is even a wise strategy. But without the ability to bust a 93 mph fastball or a 12-to-6 curve at will, it may be his best chance at success.
Niese closed out 2014 allowing three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine games, a streak he’s continued in all three starts of 2015. Last year’s stretch came with a 48/11 K/BB ratio, a completely different beast than this year’s 11/8 mark.
Can he recapture his closing stretch of 2014 pitching, especially the 4.4 K/BB ratio? We’d all feel better about his chances for success if he did. But if we had to wager on a guy successfully changing who he was as a pitcher, we’d pick the guy who is a battler. And whether it’s his flare-ups with his manager or getting tossed from a game where he wasn’t even playing, most of us from afar would describe Niese exactly that way.
The Yankees come into Sunday’s game averaging 5.17 runs per game, the second-best mark in the American League. It will be the best lineup Niese has faced this season. Hopefully Niese can limit his walks and if he wanted to add a few more strikeouts, none of us would complain. But let’s also watch to see if his groundball ways continue in his fourth start of the year.
Well, I don’t have the advantage — or disadvantage? — or studying a dizzying array of numbers, but I don’t think Niese hasn’t been fully healthy for a couple of years at least.
What remains is a LHP, a battler, and a crafty one at that. It can still get you pretty far in this league.
There was a time when I thought that, if things broke right, Niese could be a top pitcher. Say, a #2 on a good staff. Today I think his ceiling is lower than that.
I just hope the arm doesn’t fall off.
I was surprised an encouraged by some low 90’s fastballs (92 a few times) in his last start—I did not think he still had that in the tank.
That gives him an opportunity to change speeds more frequently, and the switch to more Changeups (versus predominantly RH batters) may make sense.
The argument about competing against the Braves and Phils early can be applied to the team in general… but I think it’s a very fair sorurce of doubt when it comes to “waning armed pitchers”.
If his repertoire has been reshaped to produce a heavy weight of ground balls, then he has remade himself into something that may be very productive and lasting.