Lucas Duda is your Mets MVP candidate

Disclaimer, this article was written before Sunday’s game.

When discussing pure power, Lucas Duda measures toe to toe with some of the elite hitters in the game. His two home runs so far this season have traveled 369 ft and 436 ft, and his average home run traveled over 403 ft last year, well above league average according to Hittrackeronline. Duda’s weakness has always been facing left-handed pitchers, but this year that seems to be turning around. In 18 ABs against southpaws, Duda is hitting .444 with a home run and two RBI. Eighteen at-bats is just a tiny indication that Duda will have more success this year against lefties, but there are plenty of other highlights to consider too.

As Fangraphs.com describes it, Duda is “hitting pitches thrown in the strike zone” or Z% Contact, 94.6% of the time in 2015. That rating is 30th best in baseball. Do you know who’s the best Z% Contact hitter? Daniel Murphy, at 100%. But that’s a story for another time. Duda’s hitting line so far is an impressive .323/.400/.523, with seven doubles, two home runs, 11 RBI and 10 runs. Granted his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against lefties is .500 and overall is .380, both well above average, but this seems to be at least partially generated by Duda’s abilities and not complete luck. Evidence, you ask? Evidence you shall have.

Duda’s stance seemingly hasn’t changed much since the last ice age, so it appears the only alteration going on is Duda’s ability to stay in later than he used to against left-handed pitchers. This improved approach is helping the first baseman improve contact, while maintaining a relatively similar BB% from years past. Duda has consistently been able to take a pitch over the years, but advanced statistics show us exactly how Duda is improving in 2015. For starters he’s swinging at balls out of the strike zone less than last year (26.7%; 28.3 in 2014), and he’s swinging at pitches inside the strike zone more than any year since 2010. Throw in career-lows in swinging strikes (4.8%; 10% in 2014), and first pitch strikes (46.7%; 57.1% in 2014) and you can see why Duda is having so much success early in the season. By swinging at more pitches over the plate, doing so earlier in counts, and avoiding the balls outside of the strike zone against both righties and lefties, Duda is becoming a force in the middle of the Mets lineup, and around baseball.

In an interview with Joel Sherman, new Mets hitting coach Kevin Long stated, “[Duda] is on the verge of absolute stardom, right on the cusp. He has strength and size and ability and aptitude and work ethic. He is hitting lefties and he is going to keep hitting lefties. I think he is close to having no deficiencies.”

If Long’s predictions are true, Duda will be the driving force behind the Mets in 2015 and possibly the next few years, depending on how a long-term contract works itself out. He’s been more than solid at first base, making good scoops on balls in the dirt and using improved footwork around the bag to get outs when throws are off line. He appears to be a quiet leader with regards to the media, speaking louder with his actions than with his words. And on a team with two everyday starters already on the disabled list and at least one other health question mark in the outfield, Duda conversely appears to be in the best playing shape of his career. Just by staying on the field all season with a more selective approach at the plate, Duda has the chance of not only repeating last year’s numbers, but increasing them to award-level performance.

So far everyone is serving their role in the lineup, save maybe Murphy, but he will come around. And substitute players like Eric Campbell and Kevin Plawecki have done well to maintain overall production. What Duda offers is a feared presence in the heart of the order that continually comes up big whenever needed. Any substantial increase in production from last year, particularly against lefty pitchers, will vault Duda into Most Valuable Player consideration. He is becoming not just the best player on his team, but one of the better players in the game of baseball. And he hasn’t even had a power streak yet! When that kicks in and Duda starts to light things up, the baseball world will stop and take notice.