We’ve watched Giancarlo Stanton hit a bunch of home runs against the Mets over the years. He’s belted 19 homers lifetime against Mets pitching, including three already this year. You watch the same guy constantly beat your team and you can’t help but to develop a theory. While the Mets’ announcers talk about the need to keep the ball low and away when Stanton’s at the plate, my theory is a little different.
In the chatters, my take has been that he has a slider-speed bat. In my view, the Mets were being hurt by velocity, or more specifically the lack of velocity, rather than location when Stanton was at the plate. A quick search of his HR log shows none off hard throwers Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom and only one off Zack Wheeler. Plus, Wednesday night’s home run off Bartolo Colon was one that noted soft tosser Jamie Moyer might have referred to as a beach ball.
Thanks to PITCHf/x, we now have the ability to track such things. Below are the results of the last 13 homers that Stanton has hit off Mets pitching. All 19 homers are not included because Brooks Baseball does not have the games listed when the Marlins were known as “Florida” rather than “Miami.” So, nothing before the start of the 2012 season.
| Date | Pitcher | Velocity | Height | Plate | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/29/15 | Colon | 84.7 | Middle | Inside | Y |
| 4/17/15 | Colon | 90.9 | Middle | Outside | Y |
| 4/16/15 | Dillon Gee | 92.6 | Upper | Middle | Y |
| 9/3/14 | Carlos Torres | 81.5 | Upper | Inside | N |
| 9/2/14 | Jon Niese | 90 | Lower | Inside | Y |
| 9/1/14 | Wheeler | 81.6 | Upper | Inside | N |
| 4/26/14 | Jenrry Mejia | 91.4 | Middle | Middle | Y |
| 9/13/13 | Niese | 77 | Lower | Middle | N |
| 9/13/13 | Niese | 90.8 | Lower | Middle | Y |
| 10/1/12 | Manny Acosta | 81.8 | Lower | Middle | Y |
| 8/8/12 | Chris Young | 78.8 | Lower | Middle | Y |
| 8/8/12 | Young | 84.4 | Upper | Middle | Y |
| 5/13/12 | Acosta | 96.1 | Lower | Middle | Y |
My theory was looking great until that last one! Still, it seems pretty solid that if you have a 93 mph fastball, you want to attack Stanton with that pitch. Just keep it out of the middle of the plate. Eight of his last 13 homers against the Mets have come against balls in the middle third of the dish.
It’s not a big surprise that six were on balls that were in the lower part of the strike zone, since pitching in the top half of the zone is mostly a lost art. Gee tried earlier this month and paid the price, although that probably had as much to do with being in the middle of the plate as it did with the height of the pitch.
Overall, seven of his last 13 homers against the Mets have come against pitches clocked at fewer than 85 mph. Four more came against ones that came in under 92 mph. And the only two homers he hit off ones faster than 92 mph were ones that were in the middle of the plate, with neither Gee nor Acosta known for their ability to blow people away with their fastball. If you had to face a 96 mph fastball from Acosta or Harvey, 100 batters out of 100 would pick Acosta.
Regardless, as theories go this one turned out to be a pretty good one. If you can get into the mid 90s with your fastball, attack Stanton with this pitch. Just be sure not to leave it in the middle of the plate.
This is great stuff. I know you were just looking at homeruns but it would be good to see if the patterns hold on other pitches too. It sure looks like they decdided to go inside or outside and avoid the middle starting last year
Fast Freddy
agreed. It’s exciting and something I’m sure the Mets are looking at.
This Bat Speed idea is interesting…and I wonder how it’s captured. Is it measured at some predetermined space in the swing arc…at the point of impact…?????
I’ve done some reading on this, especially as swing speed relates to golf…and that’s a bit more well defined because it is measured at a fairly precise pre-set point—the ball is not in motion, so you get to pre-set all your measure points.
I don’t see Stanton as a “slow” bat speed guy—I do see him hitting balls “deep” in his swing—he will let the ball travel to him. That’s why he has so much RF Power and drive.
Any info on BS count?—I’d be fearful of him in any hitter’s count.