Before the season started if you were to make the case for using Wilmer Flores at shortstop you would say he looked sort of okay defensively, he makes good contact and he showed in September with regular playing time that he could be an asset offensively. Besides, no one really wanted to see Ruben Tejada as the team’s starter. Since no move was made to bring in another shortstop, it was Flores almost by default.
Fast forward to the beginning of May. On the first day of the month he made an error in the field and had a Golden Sombrero at the plate. On the second day he got a day off and speculation was that he would get the next day off, too. Meanwhile, Tejada made a play in the field in the sixth inning Saturday that Flores may not have made, potentially saving two runs.
Is the “Flores as starting shortstop” experiment on its last legs?
Offensively, Flores has put up numbers almost identical to his ones from a year ago. In 274 PA last year, Flores had a .265 BABIP, a .664 OPS and a .291 wOBA. In 80 PA in 2015, those numbers are .268, .665 and .295, respectively. On the plus side, his ISO is 20 points higher in 2015. But that’s negated by the fact that he’s walking less – yes, he’s down from 2014’s 4.4 BB% to a 2.5 mark today – and striking out nearly twice as often as a year ago. Flores always had low K% rates in the minors but after a month of action, his strikeout rate sits at 20%.
Wally Backman said of Flores: “He’s the best RBI guy I’ve ever managed. He can have some ugly at-bats at times, but he’s absolutely big in RBI situations.” According to Baseball-Reference, Flores has the same number of RBIs (8) with his number of PA (80) as the average MLB player this year. The only difference is the average MLB player comes up with 47 runners on base in this amount of playing time, with 23 in scoring position. Flores has come up with 62 runners on base and with 33 of them in scoring position. Baseball Musings has him with an 8.06 OBI%, the ninth-worst mark in the majors among guys who’ve come up with 50 runners on base this season.
Last year the advanced defensive numbers were split on Flores. UZR saw him as a plus fielder while DRS saw the exact opposite. In just 183 innings, both systems this year see him as slightly negative. Flores is among the league leaders with seven errors but just as importantly are the plays he’s not making and not getting debited with an error.
Inside Edge fielding numbers on FanGraphs break down plays by how likely they are to be made by all fielders at a position. There are six categories, with the two easiest being “Routine,” ones where 90-100% are made and “Likely,” were 60-90% are made. Flores does okay in these two categories – 92.3% in Routine and 75% in Likely. It’s the other four where he has trouble. There are 10 balls hit to Flores that fall outside Routine or Likely and he hasn’t recorded a single out on these.
So, he’s making errors at an alarming rate, he’s having no success in plays that aren’t likely, he’s not hitting any better than a year ago and he’s not taking advantage of numerous RBI situations. You can live with Flores’ defensive output if he hits like one of the top offensive shortstops in the league. Last year eight full-time shortstops posted a wRC+ of 100 or more, a decent cut-off for the top offensive players at the position.
Flores is not far from that mark now and one could easily argue that he deserves more of a shot.
But is it wishful thinking that additional plate appearances are going to prove Flores to be an MLB-caliber hitter? People like to point to what he did last September, when he put up an .813 OPS over 96 PA as what he’s capable of doing. But most of that damage was done in a four-game stretch, where he had eight hits, including three homers, in 15 ABs. In nine games before then he had a .511 OPS and in 10 games afterwards he had a .650 OPS (with a .324 BABIP).
Similarly, he had a five-game stretch in 2015 where he batted .421 and hit three homers. Outside of those five games, he’s batting .179 with more whiffs (14) than hits (10) this season.
Many people will dismiss that line of thinking because of the sample size issue. But at some point, the sample sizes stop being small. We all agree that a .665 OPS over 80 PA is a small sample. But how would you categorize a .664 OPS over 354 PA? Or a .637 OPS over 455 PA? Those are not so easily written off.
At some point, you want to stop throwing away PA on a guy who isn’t producing. It’s no different than with Chris Young in 2014 or Ike Davis in 2013 or Jason Bay in 2012. The Mets gave that trio 879 PA and should have only given them about half that amount.
Many people are seduced with the numbers that Flores put up in Triple-A. But once we take the appropriate air out of them, we see that they just aren’t that impressive. In 2014, Flores had a .367 OBP and a .568 SLG mark in Las Vegas. Research indicates that you should remove 19% from a player’s OBP and 34% from their slugging in moving from Las Vegas to Queens. Once we do that with Flores’ 2014 PCL numbers, we get a .297 OBP and a .375 SLG. That’s a pretty good match for what he’s doing today (.278/.387).
At some point, we have to say that this is who Flores is as a hitter. Before the season started, my take was that it was worth giving Flores six weeks to show us something. It hasn’t been quite six weeks but he hasn’t shown us much worthwhile, either.
Do you give him another month? And what do you do if at the end of May neither his hitting nor defense has improved to any appreciable degree? Do you just insert Tejada and make Flores the reserve? Or do you demote Flores so he can play every day and call up Matt Reynolds for a shot?
If it’s me the experiment ends now, Tejada is installed as the shortstop and a full-court press is put on teams willing to move a top-notch player at the position. And it makes no difference if you carry Flores or Reynolds as your backup shortstop, as neither are starting-caliber players at the position in the majors. Whichever one you think has more trade value should be starting every day in Las Vegas.
I believe Wilmer will live up to my “eye test”: he doesn’t have shortstop range, and he will eventually make all the routine plays. Young SS’s tend to clean up their games over time….his defensive limitations will be exclusively in the Marginal/tough play categories—he won’t make those. Eventually, the extra outs he surrenders will not be error laden.
His Bat…he’s a Fugly looking hitter…and he needs to be 750-800 OPS to offset the D. The good ab/bad ab ratio looks really light. He tends to run into some crap pitches for his success—that’s my best eval. He will need to establish better ab’s that drive him to Hitter’s Pitches by design—pitched tough, he’s not a competitive enough hitter. Success will drive the Walk/SO balance.
He needs to be a very heavy stick to stay at SS—I just don’t see that kind of hitter when I see him.
Flores can’t play shortstop. I would call this a bad idea, but that would be wrong. This is an example of what happens when you have no ideas.
Four years and no action taken to acquire a major league shortstop.
Between Flores, Reynolds and Herrera, we should be able to assemble a good middle infield. Murphy will have to be traded by midseason to properly assess. I like Flores’ bat and potential.
The experiment did not work. Sandy has this marvelous pitching staff (well, getting there. I am ready for Matz and Syndegaard.) who cannot be left with weak up the middle.
Matt Reynolds is now batting .330. Is he a defensive improvement must now be learned.
Dilson Herrera: can he hit at the MLB level? He must now be given a shot to find out.
Flores is a third basemen. I don’t know what to do with the contract/injury status/age, etc with David. He seemed like the David of yesteryear before the hammy.
Brian, I know we’ve been at this before, but another Gem from Noah and Matz, as left, pitching so well, it would be exciting to see them both called up.
I wonder if the hot streak from our 42 year old is over, and I don’t see Gee staying in the rotation. Perhaps he could eat up inning time in long relief?
We must sure up the defense. Wilmer seems like a good kid; with us since age 16. He is not a major league shortstop, though.
The hot streak may have postponed change, but in it, our offense did not dominate and our defense is well pointed out.
It is time.
It’s a fun time to be a Met fan and now time for Sandy to cash in on his bets on the young arms.
I did dream, in the winter of this young, inexperienced rotation:
Harvey
DeGrom
Wheeler
Syndergaard
Matz
I know the need for veteran leadership, but with these five, is there a single one that you might pass on, in favor of weekend chores or something?
Not me. If I have chores that must be done, and I have to skip a live game, it would be Gee on the mound, or Bartolo, but not the young arms.
I wonder if enough other fans feel the same way when buying tickets. 🙂
Very generous to say Flores might not have made that play last night. My opinion is he could never make that play, a play made by Tejada, who is not Ozzie Smith.
I know in the Chatter last night someone claimed that Flores would never make that play. I didn’t want to oversell the play but you had the exact same reaction.
You should drop in the chatter some time. JP has made some appearances there and we didn’t scare him off…
Mr. Joura, if I had a mic I would give it to you so you could drop it.
This is the last word on Flores as far as I’m concerned. While some of the sample sizes are small, a lot (including the very troubling walk rate) are absolutely significant at this point. We get on Juan Lagares for not walking (as we should), well, Flores has walked even less.
Ruben Tejada is an imperfect option for shortstop. Perhaps as imperfect as Flores but I’d rather the slick glove for a team built around pitching than the slow and clunky error-prone out-of-position guy.
I am not against Wilmer Flores, I am against a supposed playoff team relying on a player that management thought could not play shortstop in the minors and backing him up with a player that has failed twice in the majors when relied on. Then it is compounded with a second baseman that is defensively challenged.
Flores would have to pass through waivers which would be hard to imagine. He could stay on as the backup uttility infielder for the time being. Tejada is not the solution either. Reynolds could be given a chance also but then you expose Tejada to waivers. Tejada to waivers would be too great a risk if Reynolds fails.
I agree with Brian’s last paragraph and solution. The trade should have occured last winter.
I think Metsense is making a lot of Mets sense. I agree with his post and have steadfastly said that Flores can not play an acceptable shortstop at the major league level. That being said I wonder what his future holds. He won’t play 3B here as long as David Wright is around. It’s likely that Dilson Herrera is the future at 2B.
Is he just going to be a ponderous utility player? In that role is he more than what Eric Campbell already is?
Should Alderson be seeking to trade him to a team that needs help at 3B or 2B?
One thing that’s for sure is that the Mets will be very hard put to compete for a playoff spot if the primary shortstop’s name is Wilmer Flores.
The Flores experiment is compounded by the fact his middle infield partner is no better than he is on defense. What this means is that there is no rock to rely on. With Flores limited range, it would be great of he could shade to his weaker side (presumably 3b, where his arm is deeply exposed) knowing there is great range at 2b. Of course, that does not exist. Consequently every play is an effort, a real effort, esp double plays. He is slow to set and throw. When he guns it no set, ho knows where the ball goes.
The biggest issue in the experiment is Alderson, who doesnt seem to “get it”. Given a long leash, the Mets will regress back to the back and our shining start, will soon be a memory we all loved, but one irrelevant to the standings. Dont look now, the Marlins have won 9 in a row or something, and the Nats, well, we know all to well already.
Reynolds looks better than Flores on both sides of the ball. I would be happier letting the Reynolds/Herrera experiment in the middle infield run its course for the moment, until a real deal can be crafted (Tulo or whatever).
I don’t think having Bill Mazeroski or Frank White or Brandon Phillips at 2B would make a bit of difference in Flores’ defensive play at SS. He’s just not very good.
Given: Tejada is inadequate. This is a fact known to us all. His defense is only good and his offensive it pitiful. He absolutely sucks.
So as long as he is the immediate alternative to Flores, it makes a tremendous amount of sense to take a better look at Flores at SS.
Yes, we could say that Alderson needed to get an alternative SS, but that’s not how Alderson operates. Until the day that changes, the Mets have three choices:
1) Continue with the Flores Experiment;
2) Install Tejada;
3) Bring up Reynolds.
Tovar does not appear to be an alternative. My understanding, from what I’ve read and what I’ve seen, is that Reynolds is not better defensively than Flores.
Right now, today, I continue on with Flores at SS, knowing that he is almost definitely not the solution.
One of my reasons for optimism for the Mets was the stretched-out lineup. Spot 1-8 were all capable. When you exchange Tejada for Flores, the offense gets hurt.
I should say that I personally believe that all of the stats that Brian quoted above are meaningless. I mean: they mean nothing to me. We cannot make any fair determinations about Flores as a hitter at this point. It would be like looking at Murphy’s stats this year, of d’Arnaud’s at this time last year. The numbers for this kid simply don’t provide answers. I think it’s much more meaningful what we see. And I see a guy who . . . maybe . . . can be a productive hitters for the Mets. The bat has shown signs of life, and I like the HRs.
Also, not crazy about losing 1-0.
The question isn’t whether Flores is any good or not. It’s about which player is the best right now. I’d give Flores more time, because I think I know that Tejada sucks.
Sandy Alderson better come up with a better Plan B. And fast.
I don’t agree with that assessment of Tejada at all. I don’t think he does anything that pushes a team forward but at the same time I don’t think he does anything to kill you, either. Right now, Flores is worse than 2011-12 Tejada offensively and to pretend otherwise is folly.
Ruben Tejada has had 1,592 MLB ABS with .253/.327/.317 career averages. So I don’t see the point of debating his offensive merits.
As for Wilmer, I don’t understand your rush to judgment. You are clinging to a small sample size and pretending that it’s conclusive.
More importantly, I see him as similar to a rookie catcher — a player with profound defensive pressures. His first, second, and third responsibilities are to demonstrate that he can play a position that, quite honestly, he can’t adequately play.
Can you imagine that pressure?
So during this time, no, I don’t believe it’s fair or accurate to believe that we are seeing the “real” Wilmer Flores, major league hitter. Frankly, I’m impressed that he’s been as good as he’s been so far. I suspect he’ll hit better. But really all I’m arguing here is that a pocketful of stats does not mean a hill of beans to me in this situation. I don’t think we know what kind of hitter he’ll be in the major leagues.
I do think we have a pretty good idea of his ability as a shortstop. Poor guy. None of this is his fault.
Clinging to a small sample size? No, I’m waiting for him to show me any extended sample where he’s ever hit to be excited about.
If you want to say that 704 PA in Triple-A and 455 more in the majors are a small sample, I don’t know what to say. Flores’ best showing has been what he did in 275 PA in Double-A, which was about the same as what Eric Campbell did and not as good as what either Matt den Dekker or Allan Dykstra did in the same park. The majority of Flores’ case is being young for his league, which while super important, becomes less important as you age. He turns 24 in August.
Flores needs to hang big numbers as a Hitter to offset his defensive limits. I don’t see him as a Middle IF, 2b or SS. He’s more of a 3bman, where I believe he’d be defensively “adequate”.
The “ok stats” and “young for the league” stuff is history….for me, I just don’t see an explosive hitter—and he needs to be one helluva hitter because he doesn’t Run…doesn’t Field…doesn’t Walk.