Colon has two fastball types, and he has command of them both. Most simply, Colon throws a lot of his fastball. More accurately, Colon throws a lot of two fastballs. Most accurately, Colon throws a whole array of fastballs. Nothing about the batter-pitcher matchup is as black and white as you want it to be. You can use a lot of fastballs, and survive. You just have to make sure to be inventive and unpredictable.
What, exactly, is Colon working with? Let’s borrow from Brooks Baseball. His average four-seamer is almost three miles per hour faster than his average sinker. So there’s a subtle difference there. The average sinker has more than five inches more horizontal movement. And the average sinker also has about five inches more drop. If Colon were to aim a four-seamer and a sinker at exactly the same place, they’d end up more than seven inches apart, at the front of the zone. When it comes to hitting, seven inches of location might as well be nine feet. You can’t swing such that you’d square up a four-seamer and a sinker, and the two fastball types look very similar out of the hand.
Source: FanGraphs
Keep on truckin’ Colon, keep on truckin’
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Colon is a good example of the difference between a “pitcher” and a “thrower.”
Was Colon ever a thrower? Feels like he’s always been crafty veteran since the dawn of time.
The first year we have velocity reports is 2002 and that was Colon’s sixth year in the league. He was averaging 93.2 with his fastball back then.
The 2015 Colon seems to be closer to the 2013 Colon which is what Sandy was hoping for when he gave him the two year deal. The way he is pitching this year has won me over. Syndergaard, Matz and Montero will just have to wait.
This is not meant to be difficult or to generate ire, nor do I want to be kicked off the website.
I would trade Colon right now, or soon. Here’s why:
As a 42 year old, his arm and body won’t recover as quickly and while he threw 190 innings two years ago and 202 innings last year, he will start wearing down and his location won’t be as sharp and the results will decline.
Will he get better? Probably not.
Is he in the future? No.
Do we need him? Yes, but we have kids we need to make room for so why not sell the most valuable piece first and hope the others build value along the way?
With Syndergaard and Matz on the verge, we can act first and get the best deal because there are the most suitors out there. The Astros want pitching and have a loaded farm system. The Dodgers want pitching and have a good farm system. The Red Sox need pitching and have a pretty good farm system. The Cubs need pitching and have a great farm system. The Cardinals need pitching and have a good system, also.
The last reason I would start exploring trading Colon is he can only get worse as the law of averages settles in and as his pitches start missing. There was a reason Colon was either good or sucked last year. That is, when he’s on, he’s good. When he’s off, well, we saw that against the Marlins last week. Before too many of those games start to appear, cash in. He’s given up 1, 3, 1, 3, 4, and 1 ER, respectively, in his six starts. Not dominating, just his 5-1 record is.
I will forever remember something each of the top ten fund managers said in a poll of their biggest regrets for a given year: That they sold some stocks too quickly. Yes, they may go up a bit more but hogs get slaughtered for a reason; wait too long and see your value drop.
I wouldn’t have any problem if Alderson approached other teams about a deal for Colon. And I wouldn’t have any problem if he traded him, so long as he got something worthwhile back in the deal. I would not be a fan of trading him for salary relief and a “C” level prospect. The upside of keeping him, that he can continue to pitch like 2013 for the entire season, is worth way more than that to me.
Brian, indeed the trade would have to be worth it. The team I’m locking in on is the Astros. They are trying to revive a fan base and have made it clear they are ready to deal. They need a front end starter and a third baseman. We will not get Correa, but I’m not sure the Mets can acquire a shortstop unless it’s a player like Jose Ramirez, Brad Miller or possibly Jimmy Rollins. The player I would get from the Astros is a Comforto-type of outfielder in High A, Brett Philips, that just absolutely rakes. We do have shortstops coming, but really lack outfield depth.
Syndergaard and Matz are around 2.00 ERA pitching in the hitters paradise called Las Vegas. They appear ready. TexasGusCC has identified the teams that need starting pitching . The Mets need a shortstop that is defensively better than Flores and can contribute above average offensively. Colon, Montero, Niese, Gee, Murphy, Flores and Tejada are all trade candidates. It is hard to put together a trade package in season and twice as hard to get a shortstop. The Mets are dealing from strength because they are in first place. I think the Mets can improve the SS position without trading Syndergaard or Matz especially as tthe deadline nears and teams on the cusp of the playoffs get anxious.
Colon is almost 42 and doesn’t look like any massive regression is coming immediately. As long as he can his locations, he can probably keep doing this for most of the year. If the Mets can trade Colon and another piece away to get a Proven! everyday shortstop, then go for it.