Jon Niese: Not on the DL and pitching great

From all indications, the Mets spent a fair amount of time trying to trade a veteran starting pitcher this past offseason. The response from other teams was either low-ball offers or no offers at all, as they tried to pry loose Noah Syndergaard, instead. You can’t blame a team for trying to get Syndergaard. But you can blame them for missing the boat on Jon Niese. Here was a typical response, as reported by Andy Martino in the Daily News:

This winter, the Mets would argue that a talented, 28-year-old lefty with a team-friendly contract — $7, $9, $10, $11 million annually through 2018, with the final two years as club options — should bring value. And that might ultimately prove true, as the offseason progresses and trading partners lower their demands.

But as one official with a team who could be a fit with the Mets put it, “I think they underestimate the impact his injuries have had on perception. It’s not a team-friendly contract if he is on the D.L.”

Ah, perception. To seem, rather than to be. Niese made 30 starts last year, which teams chose to ignore, focusing instead on the time he spent on the disabled list. A full season with a five-man rotation is 32 starts, so it’s easy to see how much time he missed in 2014. Only 31 starters in the National League made more than 30 starts last year.

The naysayers may counter saying that his injury concerns were greater than just last year. Since 2010, only 10 pitchers in the NL have made more starts than Niese. Sure, he’s logged some DL time. But he’s also made 30 starts three times in the previous five years and he’s never made fewer than 24 in this time span.

Perhaps that speaks more to his toughness than to his health. Leaving aside that toughness is usually considered a good thing, Niese did seem to be pitching injured for a stretch last year. His first four starts after coming off the DL last year, Niese had a 5.76 ERA in 25 IP and looked like he was throwing beach balls up to the plate. Using perfect hindsight, a minor league rehab stint might have been helpful.

But after that point, Niese closed the year with a nine-game stretch that should have been viewed most favorably. He finished the year with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.247 WHIP. In his start against the Braves on September 20, he averaged 89.4 with his fastball with a high of 91.7. So, he was throwing just as hard at the end of the year as he did at the beginning.

Niese now has appeared in six games in the 2015 season. Adding those to what he did at the close of 2014, he has a 2.71 ERA in 96.1 IP with a 3.32 K/BB ratio. Not too shabby for a guy viewed as damaged goods.

It should also be pointed out that Niese is pitching better as the 2015 season has progressed. After allowing 9 BB and having 11 Ks in his first three starts covering 18 IP, Niese has allowed just 3 BB in his last 19 IP while fanning 14 in that stretch.

Certainly, Niese has benefitted from throwing four of his six games this year versus the Braves and Phillies. But he also had a nice game against the Nationals, so it hasn’t been all creampuffs that he’s succeeded against. And with his next three starts coming against the Cubs on the road, the league-leading Cardinals and the Pirates on the road, we should see greater challenges in his immediate future.

We’re all excited to see Syndergaard’s major league debut in a couple of days. But we should also be happy that the other MLB teams were so smitten with Syndergaard that they refused to consider trading for a guy like Niese, who currently sits fourth in the NL in ERA.

As fans, we’re not privy to all of the trade discussions that goes on between clubs. To the best of my knowledge, there’s been no disclosure of potential trades for Niese this past offseason that were nixed by either side. But we do know that following the 2013 season that the Mariners turned down an offer of Niese for Brad Miller.

Since that point, Miller has put up a .654 OPS and twice lost his job as the team’s starting shortstop. Perhaps one day, Miller will establish himself as a starting-caliber player. But in the meantime, Niese goes out there and gets results.

There’s nothing so alluring as potential, the guys we think can be great. It’s what’s so appealing about Syndergaard and, to a lesser extent, Miller. No one wants to be the GM that trades away an unproven player who turns out to be a superstar. That’s the kind of thing that gets a guy fired.

But while teams are chasing and hoarding potential, sometimes they neglect the guys who are performing right in front of our very eyes. They bend over backwards to dismiss the guys who are succeeding in the majors to chase the guys who might one day do the same.

Hey, the Mets turned down proven player Matt Joyce when they were shopping Ike Davis a few years ago. They were turned down when they offered Davis for the unproven Tyler Thornburg, who’s been the pitching equivalent of Miller since the start of the 2014 season. It’s not like that as Mets fans, we’re unfamiliar with this concept.

We should be glad that other teams found reasons to make Niese less valuable than he actually is. The unnamed source from the Martino article is right that it’s not a team-friendly deal if he’s on the DL. But, it sure is a bargain when he’s pitching the way he has over his last 15 starts. And combined with Bartolo Colon, another guy no one wanted this offseason, the Mets are getting great production from their veterans.