Alright Mets fans, things are not looking so good at the moment. We’ve entered that period of the season, which appears to occur earlier every year, where it seems as though anything that can go wrong inevitably does go wrong. The team finds many ways to lose, whether it’s a poor starting pitching performance, the persistently poor offense, bad defense, or the bullpen blowing a late lead. Since going a surprising 14-4 in their first 18 games, the team has gone 6-12, including their current five-game losing streak, in their last 18 games.
Strikeouts aplenty
The team has been hitting poorly for most of the last few weeks. It’s a horse that’s been beaten beyond recognition. In short, it’s just been awful. Any way you look at it, things don’t look good. So let’s talk about it a bit more. There’s a statistic that kind of jumps out when trying to understand just what has been going wrong: strikeouts. The team has more strikeouts (147) than hits (127) during their last 18 games. To make matters worse, they’ve only walked 38 times during that span. For comparison, they had 144 hits, 114 strikeouts, and 61 walks during their first 18 games.
Are they pressing more during their struggles? Have teams figured out how to pitch them without two of their biggest lineup threats? Is the lineup just too decimated by injuries to stay afloat? The answer for these questions is “probably,” but it’s certainly not like the lineup has had any kind of stability. Which brings us to…
Stop messing with the lineup
Take a look at the image below, courtesy of ESPN.
Those are the lineups for the Mets’ recent five-game losing streak. Terry Collins has become notorious for tweaking the lineup in new and mysterious ways. Is there rhyme or reason to any of it? Let’s examine some of the changes to the lineup over the course of just those five games: there were four number two hitters, Daniel Murphy hit in three different slots, left handers and right handers were alternated unless they weren’t, and Noah Syndergaard hit eighth because why not.
The Mets have undoubtedly caught some bad breaks in terms of injuries. Losing David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud, and Juan Lagares for any amount of time will obviously force some changes, but making panicky and frequent tweaks to the lineup is not the solution. Perhaps some consistency will help the hitters find solid footing and dig their way out of this tailspin. Perhaps not. One constant in the lineup has been Wilmer Flores at shortstop and in either the fifth or sixth spot, which leads us to…
Send Wilmer Flores to Las Vegas
This may seem like a knee-jerk reaction, but it’s starting to look like the pressure is really getting to Flores at this point. The Flores-at-shortstop experiment is not over, but we’re past the “keep throwing him out there” phase of it for sure. He’s not tearing it up on offense, though he’s far from the worst culprit in the slumping lineup. However, the errors are piling up and it may be a good idea to send him to Las Vegas to build his confidence up a bit. Some of the current defense metrics don’t really hate Flores, but if we take a look at his Inside Edge fielding at FanGraphs we get a good picture of how effective he’s actually been (beyond his nine errors). Each category in the table below represents the “likeliness” that a player can make a defensive play on a given ball in play.
| Innings | Impossible (0%) | Remote (1-10%) | Unlikely (10-40%) | Even (40-60%) | Likely (60-90%) | Routine (90-100%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 259.1 | 0.0% (4) | 0.0% (5) | 0.0% (1) | 0.0% (4) | 60.0% (5) | 93.0% (86) |
We’ve frequently been told that Flores is just fine at making the routine plays. Well, we now have the metrics to determine if that is actually true or not. According to the numbers, Flores has only made 93% of routine plays. The only qualified shortstops who were worse? Troy Tulowitzki (!), Jose Ramirez, and Ian Desmond. Flores actually performed just a bit better in the “likely” category, as his 60% success rate puts him at 18th out of 28 qualified shortstops. He hasn’t made any successful attempts on plays harder than likely, however. Give him time to clear his head in Vegas and rebuild his confidence. If this requires plugging Tejada back at shortstop, so be it. It really can’t get too much worse, right?
Flores is out of options.
That’s true. He’ll need to be DFA’d. If there’s a team that feels he’s worth a spot on the major league roster, there’s always the chance he’ll be claimed. The chances are probably decent that a bad team is willing to take a shot on a 23-year-old that still has offensive upside.
Additionally, it’s entirely possible for a team to claim him and immediately DFA him themselves to try to stash him.
Even so, barring some unforeseen turnaround, it doesn’t appear that Flores is the SS of the future. So what do you do with him if you can’t keep playing him there and don’t want him to rot on the bench?
Admit it, you did not know he was out of options.
When you have one of the slowest (foot speed) players on your team playing the fastest position, something is wrong. Flores is no shortstop. I like his bat and work ethic. But it’s not going to work at shortstop. He either a corner infielder or corner outfielder. If he is sent down, those are the positions he has to play. He is not a middle infielder, plain and simple.
Wilponzi, you are correct that Flores is not a middle infielder. But what is he?
People have noted his lack of speed and feel that he is too plodding to play a corner outfield spot. Wright and Duda are blocking him at the infield corners.
The Mets have been trying for years to hide Daniel Murphy and now they have a somewhat similar problem with Flores.
Two thoughts:
(1) the Front Office has shown a lack of imagination/insight regarding this infield. This problem has been festering for too long. Contending teams cannot carry two sub-par gloves in the starting infield.
(2) I still believe that ownership has been complicit in handcuffing the Front Office. A NY team should be able to be more active in the marketplace for free agents including the Cuban market. The Wilpons either can’t or won’t adjust the payroll to a big market level. I know, I’m beating a dead horse.
On the Flores question I have been adamant from the beginning of the charade last year that he could not be a competent defensive shortstop. He would have to post an 850 OPS to make it worthwhile to carry his glove at that position. And clearly he is more in the 650 OPS area.
The strikeouts drive me crazy. I had hoped that Kevin Long would bring with him a philosophy consistent with the old time traditional thought that with two strikes you protect the plate. That means that any pitch you see with two strikes on you must be swung at if it’s conceivable that it would be called a strike.
Stop looking for something to drive when you are down in the count.
How many inviting first pitches must these players take before they wise up?
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I don’t think management ever viewed him as the shortstop of the future, but they do believe in his bat and wanted to give him a shot. The other infield positions were filled. Maybe he’s a future super utility guy, second baseman or trade bait. I still like his bat though I wish he’d walk more
The unfortunate Herrera injury could have opened the door for Reynolds to be promoted and Flores to try out secondbase. There is no point in moving Flores to 3B because Wright is signed long term. Sandy insists Flores is the SS just like he insisted Duda was a left fielder. Duda has stated the pressure of his poor defense effected him. Why don’t the Mets learn from their mistakes? Reynolds, not Campbell was the better promotion.
Flores is out of options, and there are a few teams that he would upgrade their 2B or 3B positions. He would never clear waivers. Keep him and eventually he will be the future utility infielder who could provide some pop of the bench.
The ideal Flores situation would be that he’d be part of a package to a team that would have better use of him and could provide the Mets with a bat. Whether that bat comes at SS, 2B, or an OF corner is moot at this point. It’s clear the team needs another viable hitter.
You don’t trade a 23 year old player, with Flores hitting ability. He’s a corner infielder or outfielder. It unfortunate the Mets, didn’t train him in those positions. They also had the problem with Murphy.
I’ll play your little game and pretend Wilmer Flores has hitting ability.
Pray tell, when do you give up on him? 500 PA? 1000 PA? 5000 PA?
I’m surprised to not see a response from Brian, who like me is a Flores supporter, but to a point. I’m very disappointed with the errors. The more disappointing are the throwing errors, which for me is a result of laziness. Throw it over the top, again and again and again. I’d have him out there making fifty throws a day, if he can’t keep it in his head. The fielding errors would be barely tolerable, but let’s call those nerves. The range was something that we all knew would be a problem.
However, Cuddyer is stinking it up. Murphy is not up to his usual stats. Granderson is walking, and walking, and walking. How about an extra base hit now and again? The replacements have not been close to the persons they are replacing. So….we all look to castrate Flores. If everyone else was doing their job, maybe Flores is more relaxed, and his errors are cute growing pains. But, alas, Collins’ bonehead moves, everyone’s ineptitude, and the injuries are heaped on Flores. Sorry kid, welcome to the Mets.
Flores is certainly the whipping boy of the Mets right now. Hopefully that grand slam will put him back in people’s good graces.
What do you mean Patrick? It’s not like he’s Giancarlo Stanton, or something. [For those of you unaware, that was Collins’ response when reporters asked him why was the team’s leading home run hitter hitting ninth, for the first time in club history? Can you believe he said that?]
This is an interesting viewpoint, Texas. As stated in the article, Flores has not been the worst performer offensively. However, he’s one without a track record of success. Murphy, Granderson, Cuddyer, etc have had varying levels of success, so it would seem that they’d be apt to receive relatively less criticism and more of a leash.
Not saying that this is justified in any way. In fact, it was probably unfair to him to put so much pressure on him *and* pair him with a mediocre defensive second baseman. Injuries to Wright and d’Arnaud completely changed the dynamic of the lineup, though. Perhaps their return will aid in righting the ship and we’ll all remember this as simply a bump in the road…..
Errors so far this year, pretty interesting.
1 Marcus Semien OAK SS 12
2 Ian Desmond WSN SS 11
3 Wilmer Flores NYM SS 9
4 Elvis Andrus TEX SS 9
5 Danny Santana MIN SS 9
6 Jean Segura MIL SS 8
7 Jimmy Rollins LAD SS 6
8 Starlin Castro CHC SS 6
9 Jose Ramirez CLE SS 6
10 Alexei Ramirez CHW SS 5
11 Alcides Escobar KCR SS 5
12 Freddy Galvis PHI SS 5
13 Troy Tulowitzki COL SS 4
14 Erick Aybar. LAA SS 4
If an organization pursues a “deep count” hitting philosophy — call it hunting strikes, or working counts, or whatever — a number of things will naturally result from that approach:
1) More walks;
2) More strikeouts;
3) Less power.
Guys, in general, will not swing early in the count. A two-strike approach is the opposite of a power swing. But against major league pitching, very good hitters are going to whiff if the count gets to two strikes regardless of a hitter’s two-strike approach.
The more a team earns a reputation for taking early strikes, the more likely professional pitchers will take advantage of that, resulting in fewer walks and more negative counts — increasing strikeouts and decreasing power.