In his last 10 games, Curtis Granderson is hitting .303/.395/.576 with three home runs and five runs scored. While his average hasn’t been stellar for most of the season, he’s been getting on base at a very good rate all year. So it’s not like this recent surge is masking an otherwise putrid campaign from Granderson. Yet all some people see is an overpriced outfielder with a so-so arm. While Granderson was brought over from the Bronx to hit home runs, he has been adding more value to the Mets lately just by getting on base. His OBP is second only to Lucas Duda’s for starting players, and he’s scored more runs as a result than anyone else on the team. True, it is the job of the leadoff man to do both of those things. But if Granderson is doing both of them, then why are so many people still complaining?
It’s that first point fans seemingly can’t get over. If Granderson was brought in to hit home runs, then the thinking goes that’s all he should do. Instead, Granderson has changed his game to fit the needs of the Mets. Asking a former 40 home run player to forgo the dingers and take his walks is a humbling thing, and yet Granderson has done it in spades this year, while cutting down on strike outs for a surprising 0.77 BB/K%. Now that he is improving at the plate, all anyone wants to do is move him out of the leadoff spot he’s now comfortable in. Wouldn’t it make more sense to leave him there, reinforce his current healthy habits, and hope that others in the lineup can find their respective roles?
The problem is that Granderson has not shown a whole lot of production while with the Mets, other than a few flashes in 2014. Understandably, fans want the most bang for their buck while he’s hot. By moving him lower in the order now, he can hopefully drive in more runs. But as the Mets don’t really have another leadoff option at the moment, who will be getting on base in front of Granderson for him to do any damage? It’s a paradoxical question, one better left alone. The last thing Granderson, or Mets fans for that matter need right now is for Terry Collins meddling with the already temperamental lineup. As the greatest strength of this team is its’ starting pitching, Granderson must ideally be served by helping score runs from the leadoff position.
Which brings us to the rotation’s newest addition: Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard’s first start against the Chicago Cubs was an up and down affair. The huge right-hander pitched five good innings of baseball, striking out five and avoiding any runs despite loading the bases in the bottom of the third, and a first and third situation in the fifth inning. Other than getting beat up a bit in the top of the sixth, he pitched remarkably well for his major league debut.
His second game against the Milwaukee Brewers was even better. Whereas Syndergaard kept getting himself into trouble with walks versus the Cubs, he limited the free passes to just one against the Brew Crew, while still striking out five with his explosive high-90s fastball, deceptive curve, and improving changeup. It was a successful home debut for the young man, and it was critical for two moments in the game.
The first moment came when Syndergaard unleashed a 97-mph laser that unfortunately found the helmet of Carlos Gomez. That pitched proved that hitters will need to back off of him pitching inside, as he was doing all day long with much success. Meanwhile, the result of that pitch displayed just how young Syndergaard still is, because he got rattled so badly the manager and catcher had to address the issue. It was a wise move on the part of Collins and it worked beautifully. Which led to the second critical moment, which was Syndergaard getting out of the inning with just one run scoring. That run was more the result of bad pitch calling against Ryan Braun than it was about a young pitcher not being able to center himself. It showed that even though he’s only 22-years-old, and he’s on just his second start in the majors, this kid has the ability to calm himself, and more importantly control the game. That’s a pretty rare feat, and if the Mets are smart enough to keep him with the New York squad as a fifth starter, the tide may just start turning in favor of the Mets.
We’ve been hearing of late that the offense is at times atrocious, and rightfully so. But it is not Granderson’s sole doing, or even remotely his fault for that matter, as he’s been doing what he’s been asked to do. And as injuries have decimated the team in all areas, with rookies coming up and under-performing to one degree or another, Syndergaard has quickly shown glimmers of why he was so highly regarding as a prospect to watch. If these two players are any indication of where the Mets are going in the near future, then the dark early days of May could end up being a blip on the radar of what could otherwise be a very fine season for this team.
Did the Mets really ask Curtis “to forego dingers”?
Dear Lord, I hope not.
The Mets don’t have a leadoff hitter and he has filled the role admirably. And, yes, he’s having a good season so far. I’m not really seeing or hearing much of the phantom criticisms about Granderson that you allude to, but maybe there’s some folks who are upset with him. Big free agents always makes some folks angry.
My question with Curtis is this: Assuming there was an actual leadoff hitter on the team — a fully-functioning Herrera, say — would you want to see more of Granderson the run producer? More power, that is.
Brian said he wouldn’t want Curtis to change a thing. I gather that applies to the guy who fills out the lineup card too. I don’t know. If I could get more HRs out of him, and with runners on base, that would be pretty awesome. However, I’m not sure it’s in Granderson to do it. But maybe it is.
Do we ideally want a 30 HR guy batting leadoff? Or do we prefer him to become a 15 HR guy who looks to cut down his Z-Swing %?
None of this is a criticism of Curtis. It’s an open question of how best to utilize his talents.
“Yet all some people see is an overpriced outfielder with a so-so arm. ”
Well…I mean that’s what he is, really. But that’s what the Mets were getting when they signed him initially. That’s the kind of thing this team needed to do. Granderson has solidly placed himself outside of being part of the problems with the offense, though, I think.
That being said, and acknowledging the team’s lack of a true leadoff hitter, I still struggle with the idea of plopping him in the leadoff spot simply because he can take a walk. Granderson was supposed to be a big part of driving in runs (while it was understood he would never hit 40+ homers again), but I guess you can’t do that if no one gets on in front of you, huh?
Actually, it’s been a tale of 2 seasons for Granny.
April 6-April 28th (21 games)
.229/.372/.314 1 HR
18.6% BB, .085 ISO, .273 BABIP
April 29th-current (18 games)
.277/.342/.523 4 HRs
9.6% BB, .246 ISO, .318 BABIP
I don’t know if this was a mental gameplan change by Granny to stop hunting for walks and start driving, so i looked at last year’s numbers
April: 12.6% BB .080 ISO
May1-24 : 8.5% BB .284 ISO
May25-Jun7 :20.5% BB, .000 ISO
Jun8-Jul8 : 17% BB, .340 ISO
Jul9-Aug15 : 8.8% BB, .065 ISO
Aug16-Sep2 : 7.7% BB, .050 ISO
Sep5-28 : 7.6% BB, .270 ISO
From those numbers there, i’m not sure if there really is a correlation between his walk rate and ISO. For 3 of the months, the correlation is super strong (April-June7, Sep), but for 3 other months there is no correlation (Jun-Aug).
In conclusion, i think these streaks are simply streaks that Granny doesn’t really have any control over. I don’t think his gameplan really changes throughout the season, but he just happens to be a streaky kind of player.
I think it’s impossible for a manager to tell when these streaks will start and stop so there’s really no point in trying to shift him around based on how well he’s doing and probably better just to stick him in 1 spot and leaving him there.
My opinion is that April 28 is an odd point to draw the line.
I guess he had walks on back-to-back days on 4/27 & 4/28 and if you’re looking to maximize his BB rate for one period, you might include those dates. But if you make the cutoff 4/16 you get a 26.8 BB% compared to the 18.6 BB% on 4/28.
He’s been on an offensive upswing since 4/14 and if you make the cutoff 4/19 you get even better numbers. So why did you choose 4/28?
“I guess he had walks on back-to-back days on 4/27 & 4/28 and if you’re looking to maximize his BB rate for one period, you might include those dates”
Yes that’s why. I was looking at around the middle point and chose that date to maximize his walk rate.
Actually, 4/24 also seems like a better candidate for a cutoff point as that was the date of his second XBH
pre 4/24
.200/.375/.220 21.9% BB, .020 ISO
post 4/24
.282/.347/.529 9.5% BB, .247 ISO
Gotcha.
My issue is that in your interest to be around the middle point that you’re not fairly representing when he started hitting. In 15 PA from 4/19-4/23, he had a 1.033 OPS. If you extend it back to 4/14, the OPS drops to .691 but that’s still closer to what he’s been doing in May than what he was doing the first week of the season. It’s much closer to May if we look at just AVG. He had a .056 AVG prior thru 4/13, a .281 AVG from 4/14-4/23 and a .281 AVG here in May.
Agreed. Makes sense to leave him where he is. He’s never going to be the guy he once was so might as well get what you can. I just don’t see how this is going play out the next 2 years. A bad signing from the beginning.
As for Noah, I was very impressed. If he gets his curve over, he’ll be dominant.
Granderson is not the problem, Cuddyer is.
Great posts by James, Rob and Name. Identifying Granderson for who and what he is, is not a criticism but reality. Right now he is the best player to be batting 2nd but the Mets don’t have a high OBP player to take his place at the top of the order. I think TC with his innovative lineups is the best one could expect from this offensively impaired MASH unit. They are winning so I would leave well enough alone. If only Cuddyer would start hitting soon.