Throughout this career, Jon Niese has been nothing short of an effective left-handed pitcher for the New York Mets. With a career winning percentage aournd .500, Niese currently finished only two of his eight total seasons with more losses than wins. Niese is also the only lefty in the Mets’ starting rotation, but with Steven Matz on his way up to the majors, Niese may begin to be pushed out. The Mets are an organization with a lot of trade speculation attached to their name, mostly due to their abundance of young starting pitchers. Of course, most of the Mets’ trade rumors are centered on right-hander Dillon Gee, but maybe it is time to shift the attention to Niese. Niese has much more value than Gee, and can probably be traded in exchange for more valuable players.
With 741 career strikeouts and just 278 career walks, Niese has been a steady part in the Mets’ starting rotation. Niese also pitched in 140+ innings over the past five seasons (2010-2014) and has a 3.72 FIP in the same time frame. But most importantly, Niese is a lefty, which makes him extremely valuable to almost every team in the majors. In an age of pitching domination, teams all over baseball will be knocking on the Mets’ door if they make Niese available…and who knows what they will have to offer? The Mets could pick up Troy Tulowitzki, Starlin Castro, Alexei Ramirez, or even a few top prospects from an organization in need of a lefty. That is something the Mets must capitalize on!
If the Mets are to trade Niese instead of Gee, there will definitely be a bigger hole to fill on the roster. However, this is not a terribly difficult problem to fix, because Matz is excelling in Triple-A so far this season. At age 23, Matz is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA this season with the Las Vegas 51’s, and it is not too rare for organizations to bring up their top prospects so early in their professional careers. Ranked as the Mets’ number eight overall prospect in 2014, Matz has an ETA of 2016…but what is the harm of rushing that number by one year? He fits right in with the Mets abundance of young pitchers, with the exception of Bartolo Colon, and would be extremely effective in filling in for Niese. And the icing on the cake…Matz is a lefty too, which means the Mets will be able to keep a four righty, one lefty five man starting rotation.
Should the Mets trade Niese? Should the Mets trade Gee? Should the Mets trade both? There really is no wrong answer. However, it would make more sense to trade Niese and keep Gee, because Niese could be a valuable asset to another ballclub while Gee could be transitioned into the bullpen.
Well, yes! Niese is a free agent in 2017 while Gee is gone after this year. Problem is there is probably not much demand for either, a prospect at best.
Why choose? trade them both. Syndergaard and Montero take over while Matz gains more innings.
Some may say that Niese is the only lefty and I say so what? it makes no difference if he is ineffective and when you consider that his replacement is better, it doesn’t matter.
Niese is an enigma and if he doesn’t have it together by now, he never will. Time to move on. Ditto for Gee.
One of the problems with trading Gee, Niese or even Murphy is the question of what the Mets could get in return. I don’t think that any of the three have as much value in the market as many Mets fans believe. Two starters with questionable futures and a poor fielding, non-power hitter with shaky baseball instincts will probably not get you much in a trade.
If they are useless to other teams, shouldn’t that dictate they should be useless to us as well? trade them for prospects.
No, this is a common misconception.
If i have a player providing $5 worth of value and his contract is $5, the player has no trade value (there are a few special circumstances in which he might). It doesn’t mean he has no value as he provides the team $5 worth of value.
Trade value is really the excess of what you think the player’s value is over the player’s contract
Well, not exactly, I don’t think.
Take Bartolo and let’s call his remaining debt $6.5 million.
In many respects, that number is irrelevant. His value is in the perception that he could help another team . . . stabilize the rotation, compete, make the playoffs. His value is tied up into how much a team thinks it will help them win games, subtracted by the cost in players exchanged.
A lot of the better teams wouldn’t be too overly worried about the $6 million or so. It’s a factor, but not the main thing. With Gee, a team would have to really need back end help; I’m not seeing much of a market. And Niese, well, if I’m thinking he’s hurt, I’d bet other teams are wondering the same thing.
Conclusion: I think there’s a reason why Sandy hasn’t been able to trade one of these guys. To date, he’s been unwilling to give them away.
You say Niese has “much more value than Gee.”
He may be a better pitcher, but he doesn’t necessarily have more value.
People are saying he has a problem with his shoulder.
Plus, if you recall, he has some kind of (minor?) heart problem that took him out of a game last season.
Moreover, he’s pitching poorly right now! That’s the bottom line for any trade that would take place “right now.”
Truth be told, all of the commentary is spot on. The value and demand for Niese, Gee and Murphy is far less than what the Mets and their fan base thinks. Frankly, if a team really wants Gee or Murphy, they can wait till the end of the season and sign them as free agents. Niese is a risk, but he is a southpaw with a reasonable contract for 2016 and 17, so he will have a bit more value. Syndergaard and Matz are ready now and had Montero been in the rotation and healthy, he would likely have been difficult to push out. By the end of June, there will be teams desperate for pitching. The Giants can use Murph at 3B. In the meantime, there is really no rush. The Mets need to get healthy, find some playing time for Ceciliani and hope that Gee, Niese and Murphy have a good six weeks or so. Moving those three and Tejada, who can easily be replaced by Tovar, is the task at hand for the Metsecutives between now and the end of July.
Not to be technical here but Gee is a free agent after the 2016 season. Bartolo and Murphy are.
The Giants need pitching…The Royals also…and the Dodgers are trawling for fresh arms currently. ..package quantity for quality. ..throw in Taijeron. ..dangle Plawecki. ..bath the hook with Gee..and sell the sizzle on southpaw Niese. ..get one above average hitter to be the 4th outfielder. …slowly diminish Cuddyer’s facetime…ease Montero in….get a expert on defense to train these shlubs
Get Ben zobrist somehow! !
Niese is viewed by possible trade partners as a injury about to happen. He has little trade value because of the strong possibility of his shoulder giving out. If he was fully healthy this move would already have been made.
Amazingly, I think a hot Bartolo is the best bet on a guy the Mets could move, and that’s a very dicey proposition in terms of winning in 2015. Dumping an effective pitcher to make room for a younger pitcher isn’t necessarily an upgrade, unless the financial freedom allows the team to make a secondary move.
Given innings limits, it’s very likely that neither Syndergaard nor Matz could give you much in September/October.
However, Montero will be well rested!
A conundrum.
I think both of these players are going to be traded or let go at some point. Next year’s rotation could be Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and Montero holding down the fifth spot until Wheeler returns to the rotation. The problem with trading Gee and Niese is that both have been injured the past couple of years, but there must be a team out there willing to take a chance on one of these players. Hopefully Alderson can get something good out of both players.
The Mets owners do not want to pay a big named player. For that reason almost any deal with for a pitcher is not going to bring the type of hitter the Mets need. I would like the Mets to make a deal with the pitching poor Red Sox’s for Brock Holt. It probably won’t happen
The Mets need offense and better defense. I am not sure if the choices should be narrowed to just Niese or Gee. This team is structurally imbalanced. Too many square pegs in round holes. Sandy should be looking to package some pitching with a position player not named Duda and start to balance the team out. Unfortunately this type of trade occurs in the winter usually.
The way to properly handle a roster is to identify trade partners and available players, not decide who you most want to get rid of.