The Mets scored five runs on Saturday, which is usually a very good thing. They came into the game 17-1 when they tallied five or more runs in a game this year. Make that 17-2 as after battling back from a four-run deficit, the offense could do no more and the bullpen allowed four runs. Saturday’s loss is on the pitching but still, most fans are happy with the pitching and worried about the offense.
No one was confusing the offense with that of a juggernaut coming into the season, two of the team’s three-best hitters are on the DL, nobody’s been able to come up from the minors and give a spark and the GM would rather fight than make a mid-season trade. In other words, it’s on the group of people here to make it work.
Saturday, the lineup had a 6-7-8 grouping of Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares and Kevin Plawecki. The good news is that those three got on base four times and scored two runs. The bad news is that their season-long OPS marks are .680, .589 and .559, respectively.
While it’s often accurate to place the blame at the feet of Terry Collins, he really doesn’t have much choice here. It’s difficult to argue he should break these guys up and place one or more of them higher in the order. Perhaps he should be giving more ABs to Anthony Recker but that’s the only one of the three spots where he has a legitimate option. And let’s not pretend Recker is an offensive dynamo, either.
Lagares has the same problems he’s always had – he doesn’t walk or hit for much power and he chases too many pitches out of the strike zone. The difference is now he’s playing through elbow and rib injuries. He’s played 46 games this year and has a 0.0 fWAR. At nearly the one-third mark of the season, Lagares has been replacement level. The problem is that there’s no one to replace him with. The decision to break camp with Kirk Nieuwenhuis as the backup CF looks worse and worse every day.
Everyone knows my affection for Matt den Dekker and no doubt that many of you are only way too happy to point out his struggles at Triple-A, where he features a .600 OPS for the season. Subjectively, none of us should be overly surprised that a last-minute move to another organization (and then the minors) had a negative impact on him. Objectively, his OPS is 285 points higher in May than it was in April and in his last 17 games, he has a .781 OPS in the International League.
That’s nothing to do cartwheels about; however, even after you make the adjustment to the majors it’s better than the .492 OPS Lagares has produced in the same time period. A healthy den Dekker is better than an injured Lagares. Unfortunately, we don’t have the former and we do have the latter. For his part, Lagares is being a team player by refusing to blame the injuries for his performance and he’s gutting it out for as long as he can.
Flores has settled down in the field and if nothing else, he offers the promise of the long ball. If he was the worst offensive player on the team, no one would consider him a problem. But with two other sinkholes in the lineup, it’s hard not to notice his .296 wOBA, which ranks 21st among MLB shortstops. For a guy in there for his bat, that’s not very impressive.
Last year in 274 PA, Flores had a .664 OPS, a .291 wOBA and an 88 wRC+. This year those numbers are a .680 OPS, a .296 wOBA and a 90 wRC+ in 170 PA. Since he carries a .241 BABIP this season, it would be erroneous to say that there’s no room for growth in his offensive profile. But it’s fair to ask how long the Mets should wait for that growth to occur. If Ruben Tejada didn’t have to play 3B we could ask for him to get time at SS. But until Dilson Herrera or David Wright returns to the lineup, that choice simply does not exist.
Plawecki looks good in the uniform. In the batter’s box, his swing looks like one that can contribute to the major league team. He comes with a nice pedigree. Perhaps one day in the future he’ll be an asset. That day is not now. The Wright injury really hurts the club. But if given the choice, the Mets should pick Travis d’Arnaud to come back first.
Perhaps d’Arnaud is nowhere close to the .892 OPS hitter he was before the injury. But even if we knock 100 points of production from that figure, that’s still 233 points better than what Plawecki has given the club since his promotion. Look, no one should be surprised when a rookie struggles in his first taste of the majors. The difference this time is no one talks about it. The answer is not to bad mouth the youngster just as sure as it’s not to play him every day in the majors. At this point they should send him down and bring Johnny Monell back. At least Monell offers the hope of improvement on his .083 BABIP.
A couple of years ago, the Mets had a poor May due mostly to the “Terrible Trio” of John Buck, Ike Davis and Tejada. The difference is that the Mets had easy solutions then that they do not have now. In 2013, the issue was with the guy writing out the lineup card. Today the problem is with lady luck and the guy sitting in the GM chair.
Two years ago, Buck ended up traded, Davis was sent to the minors and Tejada was injured. All three of the guys ended up removed one way or another, even if they received many more PA in the majors than they should have. It will be interesting to see what the Mets do with Flores, Lagares and Plawecki going forward.
Brian,
Do you think including den Dekker (vs. Kirk) in the Blevins trade was Washington’s or SA’s.
I don’t know.
I don’t think Alderson had any agenda about getting rid of MDD. It’s quite possible that his option made him more appealing to Washington.
It’s hard to miss how bad the bottom of the order is to be sure. I think it’s mostly just reality and there is no real fix because the players just don’t really exist.
Lagares will be fine when he mends (fingers crossed), but this stretch is killing the team. His biggest issue has been a precipitous decline in hard hit balls. As soon as he barrels up, he hits. I can’t help but think the rib and elbow figure into this. His defense is a growing worry too, and also would seem to be injury related. In reality, he’s going nowhere, so I hope he works through this. I’m deflated with his performance for sure. DenDekker is gone, so there’s nothing to discuss about it further.
Plawecki is overmatched at the plate, but his call up came through injury. I think he’s doing all he can to handle the defensive side of things and handle the staff….asking for more in a pinch is too much. We have learned that he’s not ready as an every day guy this moment in time. Monell was killing us. I’m not sure he would offer any upside at all given what we saw. Given that C is the hardest position to play, I’m ready to just relax expectations on what production can be had until TdA arrives back.
Flores is that just tantalizing enough mystery to keep the experiment going, despite the inching backwards every minute. He has some heroic home runs, but the amount of disappointment is large and the defense, particularly his speed and arm, is a real disaster.
Although it’s easy to point fingers at the offensive hole at the bottom of the line up. I can’t help but feel we would be doing a lot better if we were getting consistent solid production from those who’s value is nearly completely linked to offense: Cuddyer, Murphy, and Granderson.
Monell got 17 PA with the Mets so I’m not ready to say anything remotely definitive about him. He put up better offensive numbers than Plawecki at Triple-A and deserves more of a chance than he got in New York.
Since 4/19 Granderson has an .806 OPS. I just don’t see that as a problem.
Since 4/26 Murphy has an .852 OPS. It took him longer to get untracked but the last 5+ weeks he’s been hitting fine.
Cuddyer – well the problem was the expectation. Steamer had him pegged at a .727 OPS and he’s produced a .719 mark overall this year. For the month of May he has a .734 OPS. He’s doing exactly what the computer projection said he would. If Wright and TDA were healthy, he could be batting sixth or seventh.
Im a big believer in situational hitting numbers. Sadly we’ve seen a lot of Murphy and Cuddyer failing to get runs in or extend budding rallies in absolutely critical situations where a hit changes the outcome of a game.
The Mets have certainly left themselves with few options in CF. Not sure how good Ceciliani is there but he’s certainly an option. Kirk’s days were numbered since he couldn’t settle into the backup/PH role. I’m afraid Campbell is in the same boat. Plawecki will go down when d’Arnaud comes back and Flores is their SS for the foreseable future. Next topic?
So:
1) our run differential is +5, I’m surprised SA hasn’t mentioned it;
2) I think you are barking up wrong tree with MDD. The problem is our semi-retired GM who does not transact, never brings in outside talent to bolster clear and ongoing deficiencies;
3) guys like Muno and Campbell are clearly not Major League players. That’s probably true of Ceciliani too. It’s pathetic that the GM remains satisfied with internal solutions;
4) I wonder when the “experts” will wake up to the fact that SA hasn’t actually done a great job with the farm system. Mediocre, maybe. The hype does not match the reality.
Going into the season, Alderson had two reserve outfielders that mashed in batting splits in 2014. Both have failed in 2015 and that is the start of the problem. In retrospect, it is better to have a solid 4th outfielder. The Mets should try to obtain a veteran 4th outfielder. There are enough at bats to go around.
I think Lagares is playing hurt. When planning for this team Alderson expected Lagares to be the weakest hitter.
That leads me to Flores who is a slightly below average offensive and defensive shortstop. He is not a playoff caliber shortstop and there should be an upgrade made.
Plawecki is not ready. They should send him to Vegas and let him get his offensive game together. There he could get ready for his next chance. I still think he is a good player.
So as we approach the 1/3 mark of the season it has become apparent that we need a better shortstop, a veteran 4th outfielder , and a return of TdA in the next week.
Here’s what SA has done:
Marlon Byrd
Travis d’Arnaud
Noah Syndergaard
Erik Goeddel
Dilson Herrera
That’s it. We’re still waiting for any if his drafts or Int’l signings to pay off in any way.
You just mentioned three potentially future All-Stars in that group who are all young and controllable. That’s nothing to sneeze at.
I think Lagares will go on the DL as soon as TDA comes back. We’ll get a two week look at Cecilliani.
I haven’t seen Leathersich or Gilmartin pitch in what seems like weeks. Robles might need a send-down. The bullpen is showing cracks unfortunately, but I think they can hold off until reinforcements come back.
You can add Wheeler to that list, too.
However, Omar signed Dickey who became a Cy Young Winner. It was an easy trade to make. Sandy pulled off a great one, but he was flipping a tremendous asset that he inherited.
He got Wheeler in a similar fashion, flipping Beltran. Credit Omar for convincing the WIlpons of the need to resurrect the franchise and spend money; credit Omar for being able to close a difficult signing.
Sandy also inherited Reyes. He dropped that ball.
The best scenario for making trades, from a total WAR perspective (which is idiotic, btw), is to be a team that has no interest in winning for the next 3 years. It’s the best advantage you can possibly have: we are not interested in winning. Then pair up with a team that wants to win games very badly. A team that dreams of playoffs games, filled stadiums, cheering crowds, championships. That’s the formula for “winning” trades.
It gets a lot harder when you are trying to complete. Sorry, he’s no genius.
You keep saying these trades are easy, like it’s an established fact. If they’re easy – why don’t we see more of them and why aren’t the returns as consistently good as what the Mets got?
If the Mets got TDA, Syndergaard and a lottery ticket for a 37-year-old knuckleball pitcher with three years of MLB success – imagine what the Rays must have got for an in-his-prime David Price. If it was so easy, I’d expect the haul to be more than Drew Smyly, Nick Franklin and Willy Adames. That’s an injured mid-rotation starter, a guy who couldn’t win a starting infielder job and a guy at the end of a Top 100 prospect list
If the Mets got Zack Wheeler for two months of Carlos Beltran, imagine what the Phillies must have gotten for Hunter Pence, a guy five years younger and one with no injury history. If these trades were so easy, I’d expect the haul to be more than Tommy Joseph, Seth Rosin and Nate Schierholtz. That’s a career minor leaguer, a guy left exposed in Rule 5 the following year and a fourth outfielder.
There are plenty of legitimate reasons to beat up Alderson for the job he’s done as a GM. Getting much better than average returns when he’s dealt established major league players is not one of them.
I have always credited him for doing an A+ job on those trades. But I will continue to point out that they are the easiest trades in baseball to make. Someday the Marlins will get a great haul for Mike Stanton. It may work out good, fair, or great. A degree of luck will be involved, most certainly. The Rockies will flip Tulo eventually, probably. It’s not hard to do: get the best prospects you can get, according to the scouts, and keep those fingers crossed.
It’s not rocket science. It’s a yard sale.
It’s an exceptionally rare baseball trade that qualifies as rocket science.
I don’t think the ability to point out what’s involved in a particular trade has any correlation to how easy/difficult it is to actually execute said trade in something other than theory. And not only execute but clean up on them, too. And you could use the same dismissive attitude towards the draft. But we’ve seen that there are individuals and clubs that do a good job of drafting – and individuals and clubs that are far less productive. There’s just a big difference between Jack Z. making a top 10 pick and Dave Littlefield doing it.
Alderson’s skill set – being patient and thorough, is mostly a positive when completing an established star for prospects trade or picking guys up in the draft. Those skills are not quite so positive when it comes to making moves to help the current club. He was the right GM for the club to have in 2011. He may not be the right guy for 2015.
I agree it’s nothing to sneeze or cough at for that matter. SA has been deficient at acquiring ML talent however and there seems to be no big bats in the pipeline.
Scratch Goeddel from that list by the way, he was drafted 2010.
To me the problem wasnt MDD vs Newy, it was signing Mayberry instead of Aoki or Morse to save a few bucks. Wven without a significant injury thia outfield needs a solid 4th. Now we’ll have to trade for one. Penny wise pound foolish.