Two weeks ago this writer warned about the importance of June. So far, the Mets are 4 and 6 this month. This follows up a weak May in which the team went a pedestrian 13 and 15. In fact, since their remarkable 11-game win streak in April, the Mets are a paltry 19 and 26. If not for the fact that the division favorite Nationals have also been slumping amid injuries, the Mets might be sitting eight to 10 games out of first place, rather than in a virtual tie.
The Mets have been beating up on weaker teams, going 25 and 12 against the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Brewers, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Padres. Against stiffer competition like the Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Pirates and Yankees, they are an embarrassingly bad 7 and 17. At home the Mets are a robust 22 and 10, while on the road they are just 10 and 19.
But, oh the injuries! Yes, the Mets have gotten hit by the injury bug, but injuries are part of the game and this team was not built to withstand injuries, particularly to the lineup. Witness marginal talents like Eric Campbell, Danny Muno, Anthony Recker, Darrell Ceciliani, Johnny Monell and Kirk Neiuwenhuis, rookies Kevin Plawecki and Dilson Herrera, and journeyman John Mayberry, Jr. combining for a .179 average in 457 at bats. To be clear, the lineup has not been decimated. Three everyday players have been injured – David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud and Daniel Murphy, and Murphy’s injury is not serious. Miraculously, the outfield, which has as much depth as a Kardashian, has remained injury free. Lucas Duda and Wilmer Flores have been healthy all year, as has key reserve Ruben Tejada.
If any part of the team has been decimated by injuries it’s the pitching staff where the number three starter is out for the year, the number five starter missed four starts and four key relievers and the expected 6th starter have missed significant time with injuries and a PED suspension. Yet, the pitching staff remains one of the best group of arms in baseball due its remarkable depth. In fact, if all of the pitchers were heathy, the Mets would have enough arms for two teams. This team is lopsided and ill-conceived; and that, more than injuries, is why the wheels are coming off of a promising season.
Wake Up Sandy!
It’s time to balance this team by trading from its place of strength to shore up its weak hitting lineup. The lights out pitching staff has been struggling some of late and who could blame them. Losing 1-0 and 2-1 games is disheartening. There are already several teams – the Brewers, A’s, Reds, Rockies, Phillies – ready to write off this season. Even the worst teams in baseball have talent. This Mets team is filled with .250 hitters with .180 backups. More than a third baseman to fill in for Wright, or a utility infielder or even a fourth outfielder, this team just needs a bat. As long as they are not exclusively a first baseman or DH, it doesn’t really matter what position they play.
Surely there are teams that need pitching. So, why haven’t the Mets made a move? Because they are in a holding pattern. Rival GMs want the young guns and Alderson only wants to trade the veterans. Bartolo Colon is old, Jon Niese’s left shoulder is a ticking time bomb, and Dillon Gee, save one good season, is really just a fifth starter. These guys do not have perceived value. Zach Wheeler is injured so he’s off the table. Matt Harvey is the team’s biggest star and hopefully a future Cy Young Award winner so he’s not up for discussion. That leaves reigning Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom, rookie phenom Noah Syndergaard, white hot prospect Steven Matz and the injured, but promising Rafael Montero.
They could *gasp* part with deGrom, Syndergaard or Matz in a deal to bring in a big bat but there are two major barriers there. First, big bats are not all that common these days. The ones in their 20s (Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt) are not available at any price and the ones in their 30s (Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Howard, et al) are too expensive for Mets ownership and too risky for the front office.
The answer may be a series of small to mid-size deals. Get what you can for Gee, Niese or Colon just to clear the rotation and then package something like Montero, Plawecki, and a prospect or two not named Matz or Michael Conforto for two solid, veteran bats. The Brewers, A’s, Reds, Rockies, and Phillies all have bats the Mets could use and all five of those teams could use an infusion of young talent.
Getting d’Arnaud and Herrera back from injury is great, but that’s not nearly enough to help this team score runs consistently. Their best bat is on the DL for the foreseeable future and their lack of offensive depth could be their undoing. It’s time to pull the trigger. This team can’t afford to wait until July or another season could go down the tubes.
“The Mets are in discussions…”
Our fans simply dont understand that sandy is trying to but other teams are trying to fleece the mets. Hell even for a bad aramis ramirez the brewers insist on syndergaard. Its easy to criticize sandy but teams try to fleece us even for their garbage
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Oh come on! Every GM deals with the same issues, Sandy is no different and he gets paid enough to do it.
You say that Sandy needs to do something, yet you do not offer any ideas on what to do.
You only say either everyone is a superstar and would take a lot to get, or is too old and wouldn’t fit on this team for very long.
“Brewers, A’s, Reds, Rockies, and Phillies”
Who exactly are we getting from these teams that are going to help?
Brewers – Segura isn’t going to help. Aramis can’t hit and Braun is probably untouchable.
A’s – Zobrist hasn’t shown anything this year and would probably cost too much and we already have Ben Zobrist (Daniel Murphy)
Reds – Votto’s contract is huge and we don’t need a 1B. Jay Bruce stinks these days. Brandon Phillips is ridiculously overpaid. Todd Frazier is a fit only if Wright never comes back.
Phillies – lol.
Rockies – Flores has been better than Tulo this year and comes much cheaper. CarGo stinks. Arenado is untouchable. Corey Dickerson is most likely untouchable as well (team control til 2020)
MetsRealist – who do you propose we get? Maybe some of those teams would ask too much, but I wouldn’t presume. What did Toronto trade for Donaldson again? You never know until you start discussions. I’m not saying there are perfect deals to be made, but even an old Aramis Ramirez would be an upgrade over Campbell. And don’t tell me Gerardo Parra, Ben Revere or Josh Reddick wouldn’t be a massive upgrade over Mayberry. I’m not ruling out a big bat either. If the price and salary swap were right, I wouldn’t rule out Braun, Gomez, Tulo or Bruce. I suggested a while back a package for Segura and Parra. Parra makes a great 4th OF and Segura gives us a decent shortstop and leadoff hitter. Flores can move to 3rd for when Wright is out, to second if Herrera doesn’t pan out or, best case scenario, become our super sub. A few weeks from now, other teams might become sellers, but I just don’t think Sandy can afford to wait that long. We can always make a second deal later. This team desperately needs a bat and a bench upgrade. Most of these backups don’t belong in the majors and they are far overexposed right now.
But Mayberry isn’t playing everyday…. Segura as a leadoff hitter? Why is everyone so in love with Segura? A guy with a .312 career OBP is a “great” leadoff hitter.
Gerardo Parra as a 4th OF? Awful expensive for a 4th OF with a 0.2 fWAR this year.
Josh Reddick would be a nice fit, but where are you going to play him? You have Curtis and Cuddyer in the corners. They are both having decently solid seasons, Curtis with a 1.0 fWAR and Cuddyer at 0.8 fWAR.
The problem is we didn’t have a catcher who can hit, and a 3B who can hit. Well, Herrera and d’Arnaud is back, and then Murphy is healthy and goes back to 3rd, where exactly does this theoretical player we are trading for fit?
As far as what the Blue Jays gave up for Donaldson: Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin, and Franklin Barreto. Not a bad haul. Nobody could have predicted Donaldson would break out to be this beast.
The Mets have tied their hand in the OF unless they include Lagares in a trade for Carlos Gomez. 1B is taken. That leaves 2B, SS and 3B. Phillips would be an upgrade at 2B though not much. Segura is good but again not much of an upgrade if any at SS. That leaves 3B where if Wright isn’t coming back, they would certainly have to look at Frazier.
The type of move they most likely will make is to shore up the bench with a viable 4th OF.
This is a mess. Everyone including Alderson agrees that the team needs an offensive upgrade. Alderson says he wants one that won’t cost him much. Meanwhile the trade market totally favors the few sellers while the buyers will fall over themselves competing for mediocre talent.
Add that to the fact that Alderson is normally snail slow to move anyway so that even if something is there for him he’ll hedge and waver for long enough for that player to go elsewhere.
I disagree with those who say Segura would not be an upgrade. When his head is in the game he is a moderately better SS than Tejada and therefore a dramatically better one than Flores.
If the team can upgrade its defense in the infield it might not need as big a boost on the offensive side.
The plain fact is that Alderson is not moving anything in a hurry. Here’s why: the Mets are in first place. Here’s another reason: its not in his DNA to deal from weakness. Here’s another reason: he will never take an immediately perceived loss in a trade; he wont be fleeced.
As a result, do not expect much. The only thing that really will make a difference if there is something big, say Nolan Arenado and someone else (let me dream about DJ Lemahieu) for Syndergaard, Montero, Flores, Murphy. The idea of the tinkering is insanity to me. Im all for dealing for Parra and Prado, but realistically, thats not gonna do much. We have no one hitting >.300. We need more than “a bat” IMO. I also think planning long term for Wright at 3B is crazy…Id start the move to left field and let him concentrate on batting rather than all the heavy traffic at 3B.
Can we please, please, please stop the love for Jean Segura?
He is not better than Wilmer Flores in any way, shape, or form. He had one good season for Milwaukee, and has since crashed down to earth. Advanced defensive statistics show that Segura is not a very good defender. He has 5 career defensive runs saved in over 3000 innings. He has a career UZR of -12.5.
Segura hits 60% of his balls on the ground, is good for 4th in MLB over the last 3 seasons.
Flores is only 23. I think everyone forgets this fact. There is no way I would ever make that move to get Flores off SS unless we bring in a premier defensive SS.
Everyone wants to blame the hitting for their woes, but i think we are looking at the wrong culprit for our woes. Now, this is not to absolve Sandy for not making moves to get hitters, but the real problem is the pitching.
Offense:
First 31 games: 3.9 runs per game
Last 29 games: 3.6 runs per game
SP:
First 31 games: 2.99 ERA
Last 29 games: 4.77 ERA
That is more than just “struggling”, that’s downright horrible and a death knell for a team that is supposed to be built around pitching. Let’s dig deeper.
Harvey
First 6: 2.72 ERA
Last 6: 4.50 ERA
Niese
First 6: 1.95 ERA
Last 6: 6.81 ERA
Colon:
First 7: 3.30 ERA
Last 5: 6.44 ERA
deGrom:
First 6: 2.95 ERA
Last 6: 1.95 ERA
Gee/Noah
Gee first 5: 3.86 ERA
Noah last 6: 4.15 ERA
Apart from deGrom, everyone’s been horrible this past month. Gee is what he is and Noah is still a rookie so you can’t expect much. Colon is doing his usual Jekyl and Hyde thing and overall isn’t very good.
So really the two guys to blame are Niese and Harvey.
No doubt Name, the pitching has gone from other worldly to much worse, and with that has come losing in big strings. The thing is the pitching early on was disguising how bad the offense has been all season; now we see it. The fact is, we sit at the bottom of the table on every offensive front. So, sure maybe we were on track for three 18 game winners, but that was unreasonable, given we have a guy returning from TJ, a rookie, a 41 yo, and two aging time bombs. We all need to rapidly realize, as for now deGrom is the ace of this staff.
When you listen to Sandy discuss the qualities of potential trade targets, he is perfectly describing Daniel Murphy.
Or Wilmer Flores, for that matter.
If one more person says, “but we have Cuddyer and Granderson,” I’m going to scream. With injuries, rest days and interleague (DH) play, a good 4th outfielder is essential – even more so when you’ve got two older players and an acrobat in the outfield. Do you really want to bet that our 3 starting outfielders will remain healthy all season? How’d you like to live with Mayberry playing everyday?
I like Flores and think he might have a future, but just because he’s hit some homeruns doesn’t make him a slam dunk. His batting avg, OBP, fielding and baserunning are all below average. If he had 20 homers I could look the other way – not 9.
Okay I won’t mention Segura anymore. Who do you suggest then? Break the bank for Tulo? If he’s been injured this much in his 20s, what are his mid 30s going to look like? Top SS’s are overpaid or untouchable. Every time you mention someone who doesn’t fit into one of those categories like Castro they get picked apart under a microscope.
The bottom line is can Sandy can find a way to improve this offense without parting with one of the young guns? He needs to think outside the box and frankly, so do Mets fans who can’t see past – but we already have a player at x position.
Matt,
If you really want to think outside the box then what about Sandy trading Matt Harvey for the best talent(s) the market will offer? After all, Harvey will probably leave in a few years when he hits free agency. The Mets need some serious offensive/defensive upgrades and the farm system does not seem ready to provide substantial immediate help.
Is that outside the box enough for you?
Just curious as to why you think Harvey will leave? I’m not saying absolutely don’t trade him but at least wait till Syndergaard and Matz get established, assuming they do.
Scott Boras. He will never leave money on the table. No hometown discounts. He hates-no he despises the Wilpons and has an annual state of the Met’s press conference. By the time Harvey is eligible for Free Agency (2019) the Yankees will no longer have A-Rod, Tex, CC Beltran on their payroll. Harvey doesn’t even have to pack his bags. maybe the Wilpons are no longer in control of the Met’s? I know. Wishful thinking.
Name – you make an excellent point about the pitching staff. I’m not sure there’s a statistical way to back it up, but I really see these guys getting frustrated by not getting run support. Doesn’t help that their manager jerks them around by pulling them early when they’re going great and leaving them in too long when they’re struggling.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/13/sports/baseball/along-with-hope-mets-fans-have-questions-and-long-memories.html?
I totally agree that Sandy needs to think outside the box. And maybe he is coming up with semi-creative proposals. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if other GMs smelled desperation and are insisting on Syndergaard or Matz.
I have no idea what to say about it at this point, honestly. Between the injuries, rotation flip flops, and the increasing frequency and chutzpah of Alderson’s patented doublespeak, I really don’t know what to think. Maybe there’s a deal to be had? Maybe not?
First and foremost: Sandy is on track with his goals. The Wilpons are thrilled. Meaningful games in September. A shot at the Wild Card. It’s all in play. For them, these are not desperate times; the team is not chasing excellence. Sandy can easily ride out the angst of the fans, for him it’s like listening to the traffic outside the window of his penthouse suite. The fans cries are for Sandy like the hum of air conditioning; he’s not stressed about this.
Okay, as crazy as this sounds, I am okay with only a couple of minor moves, since I’m not aware of any major options that are available. The way the team is constructed has pretty much boxed them into a corner — and the Wright situation does not help.
So, yes, a 4th outfielder would be great and should be easily attainable. Mets can flip either Gee or Niese or Colon, probably closer to the deadline.
Murphy’s return will help immensely, since it gets Eric Campbell off the field. The guy is brutally bad, as bad as any Met we’ve seen in a long time. Can’t field or throw or hit or run. Not a ballplayer. He makes me pine for Zach Lutz. Seriously.
The other key is to make a clear, accurate, swift assessment of Herrera. He might help now, or flunk the audition. This can’t be 100 ABs and a .220 BA. If no Herrera, you go with Murphy at 3B, Flores at SS, and Tejada at 2B. Create some continuity. If Herrera, then Tejada becomes the utility player that God intended him to be. And for heaven’s sakes, let him come in as a defensive replacement on a regular basis. Stop worrying about bruised egos.
(Remember when Ike went down to Vegas, and TC moved Murphy to 1B — keeping Duda insanely in LF — because he was worried about Ike’s feelings? Just freaking Christ.)
The other key is Conforto needs to come up in August. Skip Vegas, it’s an idiotic place to play in the summer, too hot to even take batting practice, and no indoor tunnels in that dismal antiquated facility. Anybody can hit there anyway; it means nothing. Once Conforto comes up, play him 4 games a week if he hits. Rest Granderson, rest Cuddyer. If he doesn’t hit, he’ll help the bench and grow up a little. It won’t ruin him. He’s not a Faberge egg. He’s the best-hitting outfielder in the entire system and the Mets need a bat. It’s that simple.
It is possible, maybe, that David Wright shows up in August. That has to be his dream now, as the game he loves slips away from his grasp. Meaningful games in September, maybe the playoffs, maybe some big hits along the way. It’s not impossible.
If Mets can add a bench piece, somewhere, that’s fine.
Would I trade Syndergaard. Absolutely. But I don’t know who for right now. I don’t really believe in the “5 Aces” concept. I’d be perfectly fine with a solid #5 in the Dillon Gee mold. The big arms deal just may not be there this year.
The big thing is god-awful scrubs like Muno & Campbell & Ceciliani can’t stick around for a pennant push. It’s just too pathetic. Must upgrade on the margins and put Murphy at 3B until — and if — Wright comes back.
Wow, that’s quite a manifesto! A couple of things, whateveryou think of Campbell, he’s better than Lutz. At least Eric has gotten playing time though he’s little better than a scrub. Also, I don’t like bringing up Conforto and sitting him. Playing in Vegas is still preferable to sitting around for a young player. Besides, SA is never going to undermine his 2 biggest FA signings halfway through their deals.
Why not Stanton? Solves a lot of your offensive issues and eventually replaces Wright as the face of the organization.. Matz, Montero, Mejia and Conforto. I’d play Granderson in center field and have Lagares with his anemic offense be the defensive replacement and 4th outfielder. Since Grandy and Cuddyer need rest you can spot start Lagares 2 games a week. If the Met’s are out of the wild card and Division races you trade Colon and Murphy in a heartbeat regardless of what you get back. I know it’ll never happen. But this team needs a wake up call before another season goes down the toilet..
Given that the Mets are a team with a limited budget, I just don’t think it makes sense under these dire circumstances to trade away cost-controlled, quality players like Conforto & Matz & Montero in exchange for taking on the contract of Mike Stanton.
It doesn’t seem at all consistent with the mission of the past 5 years.
To be clear: It’s not a deal I’d make with current ownership, because the marching orders are to put a team together on the cheap.
That said, yes, certainly, I’d love to do something like it — though I absolutely would not include Conforto. They can have Nimmo or below.
But again, ownership. The Wilpons are a pox on the franchise, awful owners for decades. They lucked into the ’86 Series thanks to Nelson Doubleday, and since they forced him out, they’ve driven the franchise into the ground. Disgraceful liars and thieves. I hate the notion that they were “victims” of Madoff, since it’s my belief that they happily profited through their relationship with him for years and years. They knew, they had to know. That was other people’s real money they stuffed into their pockets. Then their pal Bernie got caught, and they got caught. Jeff is pure slime, it’s well-documented. Owning a NY baseball franchise is a gold mine. They cheated and weasled their way into this incredible position — and have squandered it ever since. So, yes, of course they should get Mike Stanton. He’s perfect for this team, and for NY. I don’t think it will ever happen, sadly.
James just thinking that we as Met fans have a slimier version of what the Marlins have as ownership. Geez! the Wilpons make Loria and hos son-in-law look like honest businessmen.. Not only did they know, they should of been indicted as co-conspirators.
James Preller – yes to every word. Preach, brother.
Pete – there’s a better chance of the Mets bringing Casey Stengel back from the dead to manage than there is trading with a division rival for their franchise player who is also the highest paid player in the league.
We could call it The Flushing Miracle. Sorta like a follow version to the ’69 Miracle Met’s. Matt I think Casey would politely decline the offer.
The Mets need to replace David Wright in the batting order and in the infield.
The Mets have young pitching as a strength.
Syndergaard, Montero and Mejia for Tulo.
The Rockies can’t lure free agent pitchers and here the Mets are giving them three team controlled pitchers. Matz replaces Syndergaard, and Montero and Mejia have been non contributors to the Mets 2015 success.
Duda-Murphy-Tulo-Flores is a stronger 2015 infield and batting order.
Duda-Herrera-Tulo-Flores is a competitive 2016 infield. If Wright makes it back then that is icing on the cake.
Tulo is signed to at least 2020 with a 2021 option. His 2015 salary can be supplemented by Wright’s insurance and Colon/Murphy comes off the books in 2016. The increased attendance and revenue will not only pay his salary but future player salaries as well. Tulo is the answer for 2015 as well as or the future.
Metsense the Wilpons have not taken any portion of their 50 million in additional revenue from the new MLB National television contract. They’re using it to cover the interest on their loans and pay down their debt. Is it fair to the Met fan base? The appointing of Fred Wilpon to chair investments for MLB is almost as bad as Fred “asking” his front office employees to roll over their 401k’s with their friend Bernie. Disgusting.
Nothing is going to happen. No trades.No upgrades. No future. Maintain control and hope for the best. That’s the Wilpon motto.
More than a massive move, the Mets need another utility player to plug in around the field. Other than that, the teams simply needs guys currently on the team to step up. Cuddyer is doing so, Granderson has his moments, Duda slumps then kills, then slumps again. And the rotation has similar problems. We need the guys who are currently on the roster to step up, not some magical cure.
As a Yankees fan, I am going to take an outside shot at replying to the Mets predicament. I am a realist, and I like to keep it that way. Just hear me out. Since the emergence of deGromm, Harvey, Syndegard, etc., I always thought that the Mets were built for 2016, not 2015. They got off to a good start, sure, but they did it at home against sub-par teams. 11-0 is nothing to shake a stick at, but still impressive nonetheless. Here would be my solution if I was the GM in Flushing: I would absolutely do everything I could to trade deGromm to Milwaukee for CF Carlos Gomez. You have to be very good up the middle in order to compete. You can’t get away with light hitting at premier positions. Car-Go would fill that need in CF. You can always move Leagares to LF or RF and then play the matchups with Cuddyer and Granderson. I would also move Tejada to 3B and make him my everyday starter. You cannot rely on David Wright to come back at all. Wilmer Flores has just enough bat to keep him in the lineup to play SS everyday. Hopefully, when Murphy gets back, he can add some value to his name to where he could either keep his job at 2B or become tradeable. One thing that I find surprising about the Mets is that they gave up the chance to sign Rafael Soriano. A late inning guy that could come in and pitch to both lefties and righties and close out games if need be. He would have only cost about 8 million (the Cubs signed him for 4 million with an extra 4 million in incentives. Given that we are talking now about the second part of this season and all of 2016, keeping Bartolo around adds depth to the rotation for this season. Letting him walk in 2016 makes room for a young starter, someone like Johnny Cueto (who is a free agent after this season.) Adding Car-Go would add a young bat to the middle of the lineup that adds pop and speed. He could easily slide into the leadoff spot or be the number 3 hitter as well. Granderson, Murphy, Gomez, Duda, Flores, d’Arnaud, Lagaras, Tejada, (P). Whatcha think?
If you didn’t identify yourself as a Yankees fan in the first sentence, we would have known it by the end of your post.
There’s no clear solution. Too many variables. On the surface, we need bats and have arms to spare. But limited payroll and a dearth of available bats makes this complicated. I’m enjoying the speculation and just hope Sandy does something smart.
You know you may be right but between now and 2019 a lot of water will run under that proverbial bridge so it’s hard right now to even get my head around the idea.