Since the end of World War II, there have only been 39 second basemen to come up and get 100 PA in the majors by their age 21 season. Of those, there are only nine players to amass an OPS+ of 100 or more in this time span. Eight of them have played at least nine years in the majors, five of them made the All-Star team and three are in the Hall of Fame. The only one not to play nine years is Dilson Herrera, who is just starting his MLB career.
Whenever you’re keeping company with Joe Morgan, Rod Carew and Roberto Alomar, you know you’re doing something right.
Herrera came up to the majors earlier this year and got off to a rotten start, going 1-13 in his first four games. But he immediately turned that around, posting a .915 OPS in his next six before landing on the disabled list. Herrera missed 26 games before returning for the last game of the Giants series and has now played three games since returning from the DL.
He’s reached base safely in his last nine games and has a .323/.417/.484 line in this short span. A brief hot streak? Without a doubt. But at a time when the alternatives are Eric Campbell, Daniel Muno and Ruben Tejada – it’s great to see a hyped prospect come up and give the Mets something offensively, even if he wasn’t nearly as hyped as he should have been.
Baseball America was the only one of the big boys to rank Herrera in the top 50 and even there he came in at 46. Baseball Prospectus had him at 82, FanGraphs had him at 109 and he did not make Keith Law’s list.
Why the lack of love for Herrera? He didn’t have a huge signing bonus ($220K), his original org traded him away, he’s listed at only 5’10 and he plays a position (2B) that is generally looked down at by evaluators. If you can’t hack it at short, you can always move to second. But if you can’t hack it at second, the logic goes, what’s left?
You would think this wouldn’t be a huge issue for a guy voted as the best defensive second baseman in the SAL. You’d also think that a guy who made his MLB debut at age 20 would turn some heads. Those guys don’t grow on trees. At an age where most guys are either in college or A-ball, Herrera ended the season in the majors.
At the end of the day, it makes no difference how the prospect evaluators rank Herrera. The only thing that matters is what the Mets think of him. He was called up at age 20 by Sandy Alderson, not exactly a guy known for operating recklessly. When a position became available in the majors for him to play every day in 2015, they again turned to him. It certainly seems like the Mets think highly of Herrera.
But do other clubs? Alderson seemingly has placed both Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard on his untouchable list. But what if he goes shopping for a bat and the other team asks for Herrera? Would Alderson agree to include him in a deal to get an impact bat for the 2015 season?
My hope is he says no. While no one wants to part with a Matz or a Syndergaard, ultimately the Mets have more pitching depth in the system than they do 2B depth. We’ve already seen Campbell and Muno and Wilfredo Tovar and were left wanting more. L.J. Mazzilli and T.J. Rivera are already in their mid-20s and neither has tasted success at the Triple-A level yet.
If the Mets trade Herrera and let Daniel Murphy leave via free agency, they are left with either Wilmer Flores or Gavin Cecchini manning second base. That’s okay if they get Troy Tulowitzki but do you really want to see a Flores-Cecchini DP combo next year?
There are almost too many variable to consider accurately right now, especially once you factor in the long-term health of David Wright. But one thing seems clear and that’s the Mets should make Herrera their full-time second baseman from now on. He brings a power/speed/acceptable defense package that the club has never had from a second baseman previously. Neither Edgardo Alfonzo nor Jeff Kent had speed and Murphy has never been close to a good fielder.
The Mets have a poor man’s version of two-time MVP Morgan on their hands and the hope is they let him play second base for the next 12-15 years. Herrera is the position player heir to Jose Reyes and Wright, two guys promoted from the farm system who delivered excellence at a fraction of the cost of players from the open market.
Here’s hoping we see #2 play second base for the Mets for years and years to come.
You’re forgeting Reynolds. You can’t make Herrera untouchable if the right deal comes along and that goes for anyone in the organization. I would sooner trade Herrera than Matz or Syndergaard as potential high ceiling starters are harder to find.
Please. I’m not forgetting Reynolds; I’m accurately assessing that he’s not any good. Guys with a .766 OPS in Las Vegas are not prospects. When you need a .400 BABIP to look acceptable, like Reynolds in 2014, you’re just not a starting MLB-caliber player.
Seconded.
With Herrera and Conforto and all of the young pitchers, they can bring in the 2015/16 equivalent of Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, right?
When Murphy comes back from the DL just tell him he’s going to play third base every day and leave Herrera at second. The less ground Murphy has to cover the less damage and better defense. Tejada becomes your super sub and late inning defensive replacement. Send Campbell back down and pray can come back after the All-Star break.
Thanks for a nice overdue article. I like what Dilson has shown at second. At the least, he seems to have settled down part of the middle infield. And on the Reynolds side of things, he looked good in spring training and will be a strong player, but I like Herrera better (way more upside).
Newsday had a list of the 25 most exciting player under 25 years old in major league baseball. Most were drafted in 2011 or 2012. Zero Mets or Met prospects were on the list, although I will say Syndergaard would be on it if I did it.
The future is now.
Link, sorry.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/top-25-mlb-players-age-25-and-under-1.10528397
Under 25 – Random
Exciting – Nebulous
I’m all for the Mets making a trade. But that trade needs to make sense. I’ve been advocating for awhile now for Tulo and I still think that is a good fit for the team. But if the price is Snyndergaard, Matz and others — there’s no way I do that trade. It’s time for the Mets not to be concerned about “winning” the trade. I don’t mind overpaying a little. But now is not the time to push all the chips in. The Mets have a good situation with the Nationals not running away with things. But by no means does the window close after this season. A playoff spot is within the Mets’ grasp. But it’s not 2015 or Bust and I don’t want our GM treating it that way, either.
When trying to figure out the Mets infield maze, just “follow the money” to find the answer. These are the Mets, remember ?
Murphy will be at 3B when he gets back, best position for him anyway.
Herrera will stay at 2B, and Flores will stay at SS. If he hits 25 HRs, and he is on pace for that, and makes 18 errors his first year, Mets would probably take that. Duda is at 1B and Travis at C. Tejada will spell all of infielders for defense.
Let’s face it and be realistic:
1)-There is no trade happening. There is no $$$ being picked up or spent for someone else’s trash or bad contract.
2)-There may be a salary dump for the $12m owed ($6m half year) for Niese and Gee. This scenario won’t bring back any real asset to help this year.
3)- David Wright coming back and making a real impact this year is an optimistic dream. Hopes cannot be hinged on this becoming a reality.
Continuing back issues are a problem in real life, not to even think of for a sports figure, let alone 3B, a ‘crouching’ position ?
Nice surprise, sure, but not to be counted on.
DW is our future LF guy as I have indicated several times.
(circa R. Braun / K. Mitchell).
4)-The pitchers will have to do the heavy lifting to pull this team to a potential WC, the Nats are not going to be this bad the second half.
They are too balanced on offense and pitching and defense.
Therein lies the shame. Mets are not like the Nats.
Who would have thought Mets in first place mid June??
This is partly because’s because the Nats are in a funk right now, but they will wake up.
Mets are all pitching and are very weak offensively, with defense another big question, and they won’t spend $ to mix things up.
Too bad. If one of the other two components (besides pitching) were above average, Met’s would be a sure 90 win WC team. Right now , ? , it is all on the pitching and BP. If they make it this way to the playoffs, that would surely be
” Amazin’ “.
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I think you nailed it and I agree with 1-4. 100%. It is unfortunate that the Wilpons cannot afford more than a small market payroll, but it is what it is. The Mets also have not had a good track record with the big contracts of late, so by necessity, they are having to build organically with their own farm system and by trading vets for prospects. The Dickey trade was a masterpiece. Time will tell if the Beltran trade was worthwhile. Byrd/Buck for Herrera and Black looks like it will be a win. On the whole, these trades have been a net positive. The free agent signings have been a bust, as I think everyone can agree. The Mets will win this year if their pitching can hold up, and if they can get some timely hitting and defense. I am not in favor of trading prospects for aging vets to improve the odds of a WC berth this year. They are putting the pieces in place for a long run and I’d hate to see them mortgage the future for a little 2015 excitement.
Brian, I also like Herrera. However, projecting him as the Mets long-term second baseman raises the question of the philosophy of his agent. An aggressive agent, such as Matt Harvey’s, will look to move his client as a free agent knowing that the Wilpons won’t pay top dollar. The same perspective should be used with every one of the Mets young studs.
With the Wilpons using the Mets and all the connected business entities to pay loan interest or to fuel their real estate plans, I’m beginning to look at this team as a talent feeder for other teams that have larger pocket books. If healthy where will Matt, Jacob, Noah, Steven, Dilson be six/seven years from now?
Well, they paid Wright and the corner OFers and Colon aren’t exactly playing for free. There’s not zero money available and six/seven years from now a few of the current youngsters will get paid here.. Plus, there’s always the possibility that the team wins and attendance goes up and there’s a few more dollars available for payroll than there is right now.
Would it be fair to say the Wilpons are not reinvesting the revenue from SNY and from the Met’s back into the team? Yes I know their payroll did go up by 16 million in 2015. But the Twins and Royals have higher payrolls and play in much smaller markets..The new MLB National contracts gave Every team a 25 million dollar increase last year (from 25 to 50 million now). Even if you average out ticket prices at Citi at a low 45 dollars, drawing 2 million+ fans should cover the teams payroll. Naming rights alone were said to be 25 million annually from Citibank. The Met’s play in the number 1 market in all of baseball. This isn’t something new we’ve spoken about. The perception is the Wilpons are hanging on and Manfedi is turning a blind eye just like his predecessor did.
Yes that would be fair.
But the thing to remember is that they’re not pocketing the money and buying fancy yachts. They’re making interest payments – and hopefully paying down some principal – on their massive loans.
Really like Dilson. Loved the rally cups, his glove flip, the whole package. He is the most exciting infielder we’ve had since Reyes came up. I’m keeping my hopes tempered though on the poor-mans Joe Morgan for now.
I’m geeked up about this kid too. I’d lock him in at second and move murph to third where he plays better D and build more trade value in case wright comes back in July and looks good. If wright situation doesnt look good we have 2 options – commit to Murph at 3rd or include him in a trade for a SS and move Wilmer to 3rd.
I have been on the Dilson bandwagon since the day they tradd for him. I referred to him as Mini Morgan and I don’t believe in prospect hyberbole hype. He is going to be an all star some day. It the end, he will accumulate more WAR than Murphy accumulates over the course of their carreers. TC even likes him, and he is a rookie! TC has declared Murphy the third baseman when he comes back.
Can the Mets win a pennant with an infield of Duda-Herrara-Flores and Murphy?
I have to think about that but it could fly.