The Mets came into 2015 with an offense that likely didn’t have any superstars but which compensated by not having any sinkholes. It was a reasonable plan, at least until David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud and Daniel Murphy all hit the DL. Then the Mets had an offense with no superstars and three sinkholes. But d’Arnaud is back, as is Dilson Herrera and suddenly things don’t look so bleak anymore.
Here’s how the starters have been doing lately, along with their season-long numbers and what we projected for them before the start of the year:
| Last 10 | Season | Projection | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA | OPS | PA | OPS | PA | OPS | |
| Lucas Duda | 45 | .641 | 257 | .876 | 535 | .820 |
| Curtis Granderson | 42 | 1.008 | 263 | .745 | 615 | .745 |
| Juan Lagares | 41 | 1.049 | 245 | .674 | 561 | .690 |
| Wilmer Flores | 41 | .804 | 223 | .716 | 484 | .710 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 39 | .641 | 237 | .725 | 430 | .800 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 18 | .922 | 63 | .901 | 487 | .763 |
The numbers for d’Arnaud are since he returned from the DL. Additionally, Ruben Tejada has a .731 OPS in his last 10 and Herrera has a 1.086 OPS in four games since being activated and a .984 OPS in his last 10 games.
Right now Duda and Cuddyer are scuffling in their last 10 but the rest of the lineup is performing quite well. While all of the walking wounded have yet to return, we see a glimpse of what the no stars/no sinkholes offense is capable of producing. Perhaps a few more guys are exceeding expectations in their last 10 than what you’d expect. But just as important is that no one is plugging along with a sub-.500 OPS lately.
Granderson continues to receive scorn from the fan base, despite the fact he’s swinging a hot bat right now and his output for the year exactly matches what we predicted this past offseason. His poor first week has been washed away and in his last 57 games, he carries a .773 OPS.
Lagares bottomed out with a .412 OPS in 19 games in May when he was seemingly playing while injured. Since that point, he has a .350/.350/.567 line in 60 PA, with seven of his 21 hits going for extra-bases. No one expects the .422 BABIP to last but the encouraging thing has been the return of his power. Where his ISO was once in the .050 range, it now stands at .090 and going up
In the four games d’Arnaud has played since being activated, the Mets have scored 23 runs. He’s scored five runs and driven in four in that span. It’s just been a huge lift going from the .568 OPS of Kevin Plawecki to the production that d’Arnaud has given the club. It’s way too soon to give up on Plawecki as a prospect but right now the gulf between the two young backstops is huge.
The NL average is 4.05 runs per game. Hopefully the return of d’Arnaud and Herrera – and perhaps one day Murphy and Wright – means that the Mets won’t go through another stretch where they score three or fewer runs 11 times in 15 games like they did earlier in the year. Since the beginning of June, the Mets have scored 55 runs in 13 games, an average of 4.23 runs per game. That would be the 7th-best mark in the NL.
A middle-of-the-pack offense and strong pitching is the upside for the 2015 Mets. However, the key to the season remains beating up on the Braves, Marlins and Phillies and hoping to stay near .500 against the rest of the league. Right now the Mets are 20-8 against those three rivals and 14-22 against the rest of the teams. They’re going to have to do better than a .389 winning percentage against the bulk of MLB if they hope to make the playoffs.
It’s nice, but don’t expect it to last, because it’s all being done with smoke and mirrors.
Lagares has a .436 BABIP and Granny has a .448 BABIP since June 1st
All hot streaks are fueled by balls falling in the right places. Hopefully when Lagares and Granderson begin to stumble, then Cuddyer, Murphy and Duda will get hot again.
“A middle-of-the-pack offense and strong pitching is the upside for the 2015 Mets.”
That’s the hope, but being without Wright is still an issue. Alderson has said by the All-Star break is a “realistic possibility”. I’ll believe that when I see it. That being said, Murphy at 3rd with Tejada shifted back into a BU role may just be enough.
There can’t be multiple players bottoming out at the same time, though. I feel like with this crew that’s always a possibility. Then again, with a return to health maybe some stability in the lineup will cure most of what ails them.
The middle of the pack and no holes offense needs to be supplemented with a stronger 4th outfielder and a stronger back up third baseman/pinch hitter. TC has to keep his three starting outfielders fresh in order to avoid slumps caused by fatigue and playing with minor injuries.After all, it is hard enough to avoid regular slumps during the course of a season.
It also depends if Herrera, at such a young age, can play like an exceptional rookie. I hope and feel he will.
What happens if DW comes back after the break, but at 3B Murph is slugging, at SS Flores has 15 hrs and getting better at D, at 2B Herrera is being consistent at the bat and glove?
Nice problem ?
I am not too sure.
Trading Murphy is the easy thing to do, but what do Mets get for him when the rest of the league know he won’t be resigned and Mets need to get ‘something’ before he walks a la Reyes ? Some scrub or two when we need this cat’s bat ?
My solution long term is DW in left, (Cuddy and Grandy platoon in right) keep Murph at 3b (his best position) but this would need at least one spring training to accomplish > DW in the OF.