Despite a mostly lousy month of June, the Mets were fresh off a road sweep of the Cincinnati Reds and were coming back home where they have flourished. Daniel Murphy was coming back to add a spark to a moribund lineup. Mets fans were feeling optimistic for a moment. Then the Chicago Cubs, a team that we should be on par with, swept us right out of our own building and dropped us back to .500. Once again we are all shaking our heads as this team pitches great nearly every game but just can’t manufacture any runs.
It’s been said that pitching wins championships and the San Francisco Giants recent run of success has been a testament to that notion. However, the Giants have a few guys who can hit the ball like Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, ex-Met Angel Pagan and could-have-been a Met Nori Aoki. When you have great pitching, you don’t need to have all-stars at every position. After all, just averaging three runs a game should be enough to win most nights. But this Mets team, with three of its best hitters getting injured, most of their other hitters slumping, rookies underperforming and a bench that collectively couldn’t hit the ball off a tee, can’t even muster two runs many nights.
There’s not enough power and almost no speed, which means the only way to score runs is with a rally of singles, walks and occasional doubles. The injuries, slumps and chumps don’t allow for too many such rallies. Unless David Wright comes back soon and strong and the front office can swap out Jon Niese for a solid bat, this team’s hopes for a meaningful September are fading fast. Here’ a more concrete look at why we could be in for an ugly second half.
They’re Worse Than Their Record Suggests
A 40-40 record suggests a team that’s on the cusp – not quite in the thick of things, but still just a hot streak away from being in playoff contention. Given the way they’ve been playing and the upcoming schedule, it’s hard to envision this club going on a winning streak over the next few weeks. An important stat for determining future performance is run differential. Presently the Mets sit at -19, a harbinger of bad things to come.
There have been a few notable exceptions. The 2007 Diamondbacks made the playoffs despite a negative run differential, as did the 2012 Orioles. Last year’s Cardinals were outscored most of the season, but as Jon Heyman pointed out, the Cardinals “are a team that knows how to win.” Nobody is saying that about the team from Queens these days. Run differential can be a bit misleading as a team that say, has four good starting pitchers but a mixed bag of terrible 5th starters will undoubtedly pad the runs against column in their losses. However, over the course of a long season, it plays into the Pythagorean record, or a team’s expected win total. At present, the Mets are actually playing above their performance. According to Baseball Prosepctus’ adjusted standings, the Mets’ 40-40 record should really be 37-43. This puts them on track to finish up the season at 75-87. Not only would that leave them far short of the playoffs, but this franchise would have a fired manager and an irate fan base. If they continue at this pace, Citi Field will be empty by August.
While the Mets pitching staff has the depth to continue its success (4th among MLB teams in ERA, 2nd in walks allowed, and 2nd in quality starts), however the offense is just plain putrid and getting worse by the day. At present the Mets rank 27th of 30 teams in runs scored, 29th in batting average, 25th in OBP, 28th in OPS, 20th in home runs, 23rd in stolen bases. The Mets are also 20th in both errors and fielding percentage so their defense isn’t helping matters either.
On a positive note, how ‘bout them pitchers?
You’re overthinking it. This is nothing a few runs wouldn’t fix. A team with their pitching is definately on the cusp.
Eric,
With all due respect, are you watching the same team that I’m watching?
Im with you Norm. The Mets are on the cusp alright, of losing 90 games. It is unreasonable to expect the staff to give 7+ IP of 0 or 1 run ball night after night after night. This team has the worst offense in baseball. And if I had to guess, one of the worst defenses as well.
Just remember, while its Panic City for fans and students of the game, its Kobe burgers, bottles of Dom, and gold leafed cakes in the cushy suites of the owners and GM. As we continue to relish in the idea of Alderson as Nero, lets not forget that he didnt just fiddle while Rome burned, he started the conflagration and enjoyed the view of the flames from the hilltops!
In order for the team to lose 90 games, they would have to go .390 the rest of the way.
Only 1 team in baseball has played as badly as that, and that’s the Phillies.
Check with me at the end of July. We might only win 5 games this month, a month the Mets in recent years have melted like a stick of butter on a NY sidewalk in August. Since April 28 we have a .417 record, so its not far off…and the crushing blows of playing a string of great teams in still in front of us.
Our offense is playing like the Phillies.
Alderson is the real problem. Fire him and get a real general manager; not a guy who thinks he’s smarter than everyone else, while ending up outsmarting himself along with the organization.
PS: The Mets five ace starters are all Omar Minaya products. Alderson hasn’t done anything positive with this team since he’s been here.
Well, the Mets are 20th in fielding percentage, but I think they are even worse than that, with all the mistakes and missed DPs so far.
And I’m shocked this team is having trouble scoring runs. After all, we took the 2014 team and added Michael Cuddyer. How could that not work?
It’s past July 1. This team is who it is. The pitching is good-to-great, the offense stinks. And there are no signs or stats pointing to a late-season turnaround.
I’m not ready to throw in the towel. I think there is still a chance to salvage this season. If Sandy is unwilling to part with one of the stud pitchers and te Wilpons are unwilling to take on salary that really limits us. I think adding two bats like say Gerardo Parra and Ben Zobrist could help the offense at least be decent. Although the defense would still stink. But then this is the same GM who could have had Dee Gordon and Nori Aoki for less than what we’re paying Cuddyer.
Where else can a hitting coach keep his job when no one but pitchers hit?
Where else can a general manager neuter the entire slugger mentality, from early A ball right on up, with his ball count mentality, dodge questions with smug and unfunny jokes, or just go walk the dog?
I would like to see Terry Collins, Sandy Alderson and Kevin Long all out of jobs, and let’s see if Wally Backman can light a fire under a team who not only does not hit, but has guys like Reuben Tejada add insult to an already wounded team by refusing to run out pop ups.
Collins has lost this team. Take out that marvelous April streak and we are in the cellar.
Interesting: the New York Post and NY Daily News, on the same say, called for the Mets to promote Conforto.
Why do I think Alderson is whispering, “no, if he comes up, it will cost you x amount in 2021, and…”
Can the batting coach be sued for malpractice?
Lucas Duda could go talk to Keith Hernandez and view video tapes together.
This would make Hernandez a pariah in the eyes of Alderson (joining Daniel Murphy, who, other than pitchers, is the only consistent hitter; sans Grandy’s 1 hot streak per season; which is poetic justice.), and could cost him his job in the booth.
I like our booth a lot, now.
Granderson’s one hot streak this year lasted 70 games with an .829 OPS. If only the rest of the hitters were as bad as Granderson.
Preach, Peter. Love the malpractice comment
Brian – too bad our best power hitter has to bat lead off because he’s the only guy who can get on base consistently. Grandy is not the problem.
The Mets are actually playing over their heads as you rightfully indicated with their Pythagorean record. If a trade is not made then I too expect things to get worse before they get better. Frank’s article today just made a lot of sense. The Dodgers are also looking for back of the rotation help.Something needs to be done.
On a positive note, what about them pitchers! If given some offensive help the Fab Four could consistently string together a few 6-2 runs during the rest of the season. Come on Nero, put down the fiddle and do something!
How about those games where the Met pitcher out hits all the position players?! Geez watching Cuddyer and Duda run the bases (when they can get on) Is like watching grass grow in the Astro Dome. As much as I can’t stand Collins, this is on Alderson. Nelson Cruz essentially signed for the same money as Granderson. The only thing SA had to do was trade Gee and Niese during spring training and the net result in savings gives you the same payroll but with a much more potent line up. The Met’s are a lost cause. Signing Cuddyer so early into free agency sealed their fate for this season’s doom and gloom. Wait until the kids start to tire in Late August and early September. Montero cannot fill in for all of them.