Chris Flexen and the post 2011 bonus babies of the Mets

What do Chris Flexen, Erik Manoah and Corey Oswalt have in common? They all started games for minor league affiliates of the Mets on Saturday. And they all are pitchers taken in the seventh round or later that the Mets gave overslot bonuses to since MLB instituted the system for the 2012 Draft.

For those not entirely clear on the process, prior to 2012 MLB had slot “recommendations” for the draft but there were no established penalties for teams that exceeded these levels. Rumor had it you got on the commissioner’s bad side but that was about it. Then, a system was put in place where each choice in the first 10 rounds had a specific dollar value attached to it. Picks in rounds 11 and later did not have any dollar value but any amount over $100,000 counted towards your total pool allotment.

Based on where you picked in each of the first 10 rounds, each team had a pool of money to use on signing draft picks each year. Also, you had to sign a player from a round to get the use of that slot money in the draft. For instance, if your first-round pick had a slot value of $2 million – you couldn’t refuse to sign him and use that $2 million throughout the rest of the draft.

In both 2012 and 2013, the Mets signed players to under-slot deals at the very top of the draft to use money on later picks. It seems backwards to me, especially since it’s well-known that a player’s chances of reaching the majors declines consistently the deeper you go in the draft. On average a first-round pick will have a much greater chance of reaching the majors than a seventh-round pick. So, why take a “lesser” player in the first round to take a “greater” player much later on?

That began to change somewhat in the 2014 Draft. Top pick Michael Conforto signed a slot-level bonus and the Mets went overslot on their third-round pick, too. And in this year’s draft, while the Mets didn’t have a first-round pick, they signed their initial selection to a slot-level bonus and went over on both their third and fifth-round picks.

Prior to the slot system introduced for 2012, teams were using financial clout to game the system, and not just those considered rich teams, like the Yankees and Red Sox. Most notably the Pirates were giving out big bonuses to lower-round draft picks. Guys would announced they were going to college, slip out of the first few rounds and then sign the equivalent of second-round money even though they were selected in the 20th round.

If there’s one thing we know owners don’t like, it’s parting with their money. So the current system was introduced to essentially save the owners from themselves and to artificially limit the amount paid to these greedy amateurs. Teams are allowed to go over their pool allotment, but the penalties are so harsh that virtually no one does.

Any team that exceeds its pool up to 5% must pay a 75% tax on the amount of the overage. Any team that exceeds its pool by more than 5% but less than 10% must pay a 75% tax on the amount of the overage and loses a first-round draft pick the following year. Any team that exceeds its pool by more than 10% but less than 15% must pay a 100% tax on the amount of the overage and loses both a first-round and second-round draft pick the following year. And if that’s not enough, any team that exceeds its pool by more than 15% must pay a 100% tax on the amount of the in addition to losing first and second rounders in the next two drafts.

Wow.

As you probably have guessed, the Mets have not exceeded their pool allotment in any of the four years since the plan has been instituted. But that just makes sense. However, let’s see how they’ve done with the guys they’ve given above-slot bonuses to these past four drafts.

Tyler Bashlor ($450,000 over)
Junior College pitcher who reached 98 mph. Had TJ surgery and has not pitched professionally since 2013.

Brandon Brosher ($67,500)
Power-hitting catcher has battled injury problems. Currently playing in Brooklyn, where he has one homer in four games.

Dale Burdick ($50,000)
The Mets’ 40th-round (read: last) pick in the 2014 Draft, Burdick got an above-slot bonus when the Mets came to terms with Conforto and still had money left in the budget. An infielder, he struggled mightily in the GCL last year and returned to that level in 2015. He’s doing much better in 2015, with an .861 OPS after 37 PA.

P.J. Conlon ($10,000)
A LHP from San Diego State, Conlon is in Brooklyn, where he has been unscored upon in three innings of relief.

Chris Flexen ($274,400)
Made his 2015 debut after missing most of the 2014 season due to TJ surgery. Had a strikeout in a perfect inning for the GCL Mets.

Luis Guillorme ($63,600)
After two ho-hum seasons in rookie ball, Guillorme is having a nice year with Lo-A Savannah, where he’s batting .301 with a .700 OPS as a shortstop. Listed at 5’10, 170 pounds, he may not be long for that position.

Dan Herrmann ($100,000)
The Mets released Herrmann in the beginning of June after he went 0-5 with a 12.23 ERA in 20 games over two seasons for the GCL Mets.

Jordan Humphreys ($50,000)
An 18th-round pick out of the state of Florida, he’s yet to pitch professionally.

Jared King ($119,200)
The 23-year-old outfielder is finding the jump to Double-A to be a difficult one, as he sits with a .504 OPS after 283 PA.

Gabriel Llanes ($200,000)
The story was that Llanes was very raw when he was picked. His numbers last year in the GCL were not good. And he’s back with the same team this year. It might be a couple of more years before we get any kind of read on him as a player.

Erik Manoah ($200,000)
Had an impressive debut season in 2014, when he posted a 3-0 record with a 2.62 ERA. Things have been a bit harder in the early going at Kingsport, where he’s 0-2 with a 1.630 WHIP after three games.

Tyler Moore ($25,700)
A C-1B, Moore had an underwhelming season in 2014 and is doing even worse here this year. He has a .376 OPS in 95 PA in Lo-A.

Tomas Nido ($113,100)
Another C, Nido is making his full-season debut after three years in rookie ball. He’s got a .653 OPS in 210 PA for Savannah.

Matt Oberste ($139,300)
A 1B without much over-the-fence power, Oberste does just enough to remain interesting. This year he has a .764 OPS at Hi-A St. Lucie.

Corey Oswalt ($328,400)
He sports a 3.70 ERA and a 1.456 WHIP but he’s pitched better recently. In his last four games, he’s 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA. Has had some bad luck with his strand rate.

Raphael Ramirez ($50,000)
Another toolsy outfielder, Ramirez turned down a scholarship with North Carolina State to sign with the Mets. He had a solid debut season last year in the GCL and is off to a quick start in the Appalachian League, where he has a .906 OPS after 41 PA, with two doubles and three triples.

Milton Ramos ($98,300)
An athletic middle infielder, Ramos is off to a great start in the Appalachian League in 2015. The Florida native has a .375/.405/.500 line after 42 PA.

Jake Simon ($300,000)
A LHP from Texas, Simon turned down a scholarship to Rice to sign with the Mets after being selected on the 11th round of the 2015 Draft.

Thomas Szapucki ($20,000)
A high school lefty, he turned down a scholarship with Florida to sign with the Mets after being selected in the fifth round of the 2015 Draft.

Champ Stuart ($52,300)
It’s fun to root for the kids from the small schools and Stuart came from Division II Brevard. He’s a raw, toolsy player with great speed. Unfortunately, he can’t hit. He’s below the Mendoza Line at St. Lucie and carries a .560 OPS after 267 PA.

Logan Taylor ($50,000)
A 6’5 RHP, Taylor is scuffling this year in St. Lucie. He has a 5.07 ERA and a 1.533 WHIP after 76.1 IP.

Dash Winningham ($15,400)
With a name like this, he ought to be a speedster. But he’s a first baseman, instead. He’s off to a good start with Kingsport, where he has an .848 OPS with two homers after 45 PA.

Max Wotell ($108,500)
The 2015 North Carolina High School Player of the Year, Wotell struck out the side in order in his first and (so far) only appearance in the GCL.

With most of these guys, the jury is still out. Flexen looked like a steal before needing surgery and it was great to see his name in the boxscore this morning. The most encouraging thing is to see guys from the first five rounds getting extra money. Ramirez, Ramos, Szapucki and Wotell are the guys to keep an eye on going forward.

Still, it would be even better if they swung for the fences with their first-round pick. The Mets turned down the chance to pick Lucas Giolito back in 2012 because he wanted an over-slot deal. Prior to the 2015 season, he was a consensus Top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Sure, there were injury concerns and he did indeed have TJ surgery. But it’s not like picks the Mets gave extra money to didn’t have the same procedure.