Michael Cuddyer is 2-for-36 in his last 12 games. If you’re 21 year old that gets you sent to the minors. If you’re 36 years old nothing happens more than the manager saying you’ve got to get going. Having a $21 million contract is good in more ways than one.
For the season, Cuddyer has a .643 OPS. ZiPS forecasted him to be a .775 OPS hitter this year while Steamer projected a .727 mark. Cuddyer was underperforming the more pessimistic Steamer forecast before the recent skid began.
These two projection systems also forecast what they expect a player to do the rest of the year. ZiPS forecasts a .727 mark from now to the end of the season while Steamer projects a .698 OPS going forward. This is the regression that the computer models are predicting. In other words better than the lousy production the club has received so far but equal to or worse than the depressing preseason Steamer forecast.
For those who support Cuddyer remaining in the lineup as long as he’s healthy, is that because you think the computer models are wrong or because you think that’s production that cannot be matched by others currently on the team or in the system? If it’s the latter, should acquiring an OF be Sandy Alderson’s top priority?
At this point, putting your eggs in the “Alderson make a trade” basket seems hopelessly naïve. And even if it wasn’t, it’s not like his track record in trades with the Mets is all that great, anyway. Instead, assuming you’re not in the group that thinks the computer models are off, we need to get away from the “seniority and hope” mindset and show some creativity.
Take a second to get the laughter out of your system.
Now that you’ve composed yourself, consider the option of playing John Mayberry Jr. more. Terry Collins has been hyper dogmatic in his use of Mayberry, refusing to start him in any game where a RHP is on the mound. Given that he has a .650 lifetime OPS versus righties, maybe that’s not such a bad idea. Just recall that Cuddyer is worse than that overall right now.
Mayberry got off to a slow start with the Mets and then hit rock bottom in May, when he posted a .367 OPS. But he’s swung a much better bat since then. In his last 23 games, Mayberry has an .822 OPS. Can we just consider giving him an occasional start versus a righty? With Cuddyer being an automatic out right now, a guy like Mayberry who is just below average would be an upgrade.
Days off for starters are good things. Days off for guys who are stinking up the joint are even better. Starts for bench players help keep them sharp. One thing that’s not talked about much this year is how poor Mayberry’s been as a pinch hitter. He’s just 2-25 as a PH with a .313 OPS. Could a few more starts for Mayberry help him in this role?
Maybe – who knows – but what the heck, let’s find out. It just seems to me that when a guy who’s projected to be not very good turns out to be even worse, at the bare minimum give that guy a few days off.
And as long as we’re giving days off, Lucas Duda sure could use a few, too.
Terry has always been very, very reluctant to rest any regular. He’s afraid to do it, and in acting that way, he sends a horrible message to the bench.
We all remember the “I’m trying to get David a day off” press conferences. Then days go by, and weeks, as we watch David get ground into chopped meat. He does the same to relievers. And now, amazingly, he does it with his old players who desperately need it. (We’ll see how Granderson hits in August.)
Personally, I like Cuddyer, though I realize he’s been horrible this season. Throughout his career, he’s been a good hitter and an honorable ballplayer. I respect him, I’m not going to kill the guy. (But I know, it’s been brutal this year.) Maybe it all went away forever, or maybe he’s had a rough time so far. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect a rebound in the second half . . . if he gets a steady diet of rest the way, say, Bobby Valentine squeezed great production out of a fading Rickey Henderson. A judicious use.
You know my revelation was to finally recognize was that he’s a 4th outfielder. A good one. A 300-350 AB guy, exactly what this team needs. (Of course, they still need a starting corner OF.)
It could also be that this knee thing has been going on for a while.
I don’t think Mayberry is the answer against RHP.
We all know that it’s only a matter of time before we see the old-new “internal solution” out there: Kirkkkkk.
It’s funny, I was reading about a few available players on the market and at the bottom it mentioned other teams that had shown interest. And my first thought was, oh well, it will never happen then. I mean, that was my very first reaction when I saw there was competition: Nope, not happening. Sandy only gets guys when no one else is competing for them. Other teams will always pay more than Sandy is willing to go. That’s how he never makes mistakes in the trade market. Risk-averse. Also: Doesn’t really mind losing. Would prefer to win, of course, but gosh when the price is high . . .
Never makes mistakes in the trade market?
I’d say that both of this trades this year were mistakes. Inventing/overblowing a need and overpaying for what he got.
The time is now!!!!!!!
Kirk is back.
If the Mets are serious about a playoff run then they should trade for an upgrade in the outfield and an upgrade in the middle infield. The Mets have a stong minor league system to trade prospects for a rental. They also have an extra back end starter and a relief pitcher to offer in an exchange for non rental type players.
Cuddyer needs to get less at bats and at this time should get them against left handed pitching where his career numbers show he has been strong (unlike his 2015 splits). Presently the other option of occasionally starting Mayberry is something I am also in favor of for all the reasons you presented. Maybe with some selected at bats Cuddyer could add something to the team in the second half.
Teams that have playoff aspirations move on from dissppointing players and make corrections. Sandy has the tools to fix this problem if only he would put that damn fiddle down.
Someone on these message boards recently posted an article that made a strong case that Jeff Wilpon is really making these decisions and that Sandy’s hands are pretty tied. If that’s the case, it makes sense on the delays on bringing the rookies up, about delaying Conforto and Nimmo and on not making any moves. I can see his work, as a non-baseball man, forcing the 6 man rotation on SA and TC too. It’s not that I love Alderson, but if Wilpon is truly running the team, then SA isn’t responsible and it’s hard to hold him accountable.
If this is true, the call should be for Wilpon’s head, not Alderson. And unfortunately, he’s here to stay. Sounds to me like the James Dolan situation over at the Knicks.
Love these ideas.
FWIW, over the last 28 days, Cuddyer’s OPS is .368, dropping to .203 over the last 14 days and literally 0 in the last 7 days (10 PAs). Duda’s OPS is .566 for last 28, .414 for last 14 and .401 for the last 7.
(BTW, the average OPS for the entire league YTD is .703. It was .694 in 2014 and .703 again in 2013.)
Mayberry, with more limited ABs, is at .597 for last 28, .624 for last 14 and .833 for last 7 (9 PAs). He is anemic vs RHPs, his OPS for the year is still better than Cuddyer’s over the last month.
So, I totally agree with benching him to see what Mayberry can do. I’d also like to see them bring up some of the non-Kirk AAA guys. Why not see what Castellanos can do? He could spell Duda too. Is there anyone besides Cuddyer and Murphy that can play 1B on the current Mets MLB roster?
Guess who’s back! You’re favorite player, Kirk!
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Hopefully bye bye to Ceciliani
I have both D II and D III ties — I root for the kids from the small schools like Kirk. Just because I overwhelmingly prefer MDD does not mean that I dislike Nieuwenhuis.
I like Nieuwenhuis too, and would love to see him playing on the L.I. Ducks. The only one standing in his way is Sandy Alderson.
Brian I have voiced my displeasure of the Cuddyer signing from the get go. Expecting him to play 150 games at a high level just wasn’t very realistic. But Sandy knows everything and we are just a bunch of dummies walking our dogs, Pinning all your hopes on a 36 year old who has averaged less than what 90-100 games over the past 3 seasons? I think he’s going to get worse as the season progresses. Cuddyers body isn’t used to playing 5 games in one week. But the good news is he’s a veteran and Collins loves that. Can someone in management please tell Terry that the All-Star game is coming soon and that would be the ideal time to give Cuddyer the rest he needs? If the team can’t function without him for a series then they’re dead anyway.
Cuddyer appears to be more suited for the Role that Mayberry was to fill.
The Mets need a capable LH Platoon Bat in the outfield if they are to capture any of the promise that the Starting Pitching provides…. they need some platoons in the outfield and at first base….and they may actually survive Tejada at SS if they do so.
The Rep of the troika for baseball analysis is bewildering— they’re playing “3 run Homer Ball” in a small ball environment…. and they’re doing it without 3 run Homer Guys!!!
They have juxtaposed Great Pitching with a team that Can’t hit, Run or field…. and they think they’ve “outsmarted the room” by doing it!!!
Final exasperation…and this is not aimed only at the Mets— I’m confused that virtually every team is now playing “Situational Defense” with shifts and schemes; meanwhile, there’s a lack of situational offense throughout the game. I see “batting practice at bats” that seem to have no recognition of games situation—the same swing with 2 strikes as I see at 0-0.
Boy could this team use situational hitting drills.