(Disclaimer: This article was written before Monday’s game versus the Giants)
I encourage you to reference the Fangraphs.com Team Stats-Batted Ball page. In those numbers, you will see why the Mets have been losing, and how they will get better. First, let’s start with why they are losing. The team is hitting a fly ball 35.1% of the their collective at-bats, which is the 11th-highest rate in the game. Fly balls can be good if you have lots of power like the Blue Jays, Reds or Yankees. Unfortunately their HR/FB percentage is just 8.8, ranked 26th in baseball. Insultingly, their infield fly-ball rate is third-highest of all teams. Meaning they are popping up way too much, and embarrassingly, it’s often not leaving the infield.
Now the good news. The Mets are hitting the ball hard nearly 32% of the time, which is best in either league. That deserves a moment of reflection, so let’s pause for a moment. The Mets, who can’t score worth a darn, somehow hit the ball hard more than anyone in baseball. That’s great! Not great is how pitiful they are in Medium% hits (ranked 29th). They somewhat redeem themselves by being toward the better end in Soft% hits.
These numbers don’t seem to jive with one another. That’s because they don’t, thanks to the second-worst BABIP in the game. The Mets seem to not only have terrible luck at the plate, but when they do it the ball it’s either a laser or a meek dribbler, nothing in between. The ones in between are what help make infield hits and bloopers possible. In short, they help score runs. Two hard hit singles and three taps off the end of the bat don’t. The even larger problem is that virtual everyone on the team is doing the same thing at the plate, except perhaps Wilmer Flores and his torrid 11-for-16 pace, and Curtis Granderson who should surpass every major offensive stat from last year, providing he stays healthy.
Oh yeah, and there’s that health thing. The Mets have been inordinately unlucky with injuries this season, forcing them to play a team half full of replacement-level players. (Of course, no one was forcing Sandy Alderson not to improve the team through outside means. Or were they??) Yet the team overall has a fWAR of 7.3. While that’s not great, it is better than I personally would have expected if in April you said regular at-bats would go to Eric Campbell, Ruben Tejada, Dilson Herrera and Kevin Plawecki. True Herrera and Plawecki were expected to contribute more. Herrera is still only 21 with just a handful of games above Double-A. Plawecki has hit better of late, just not with any power. Add in a sprinkling of other Triple-A callups, and the multitude of leaks has been regularly plugged with glue and tape to varying degrees of success.
Yet here they are, still stumbling through a horrific team-wide slump, but they sit one game above .500 and in second-place behind the Washington Nationals. If you had told fans at the beginning of the season that the Mets had kept pace with the division leader all the way through June, I believe most would have been excited. But we’re not, we’re very, very angry. The reason is threefold. The Nationals made it easy for us to run away with the division early, except we didn’t. The Mets front office made extremely little outward signs of trying to right the ship when it was sinking fast. And most painfully of all, we had that brief glimpse of such fantastic success early on, which gave us hope. And we Mets fans don’t know what to do with hope. We went crazy with delusions of grandeur and visions of the playoffs only to have reality slap us back down. It’s has been a rollercoaster ride ever since.
The 11-game winning streak – Up!
Then injuries hit – Down.
Daniel Murphy has hit well despite irregular time and is now fully healthy – Up!
Lucas Duda and Michael Cuddyer are still mired in deep slumps, and Herrera was sent back to Vegas too soon in some people’s eyes – Down.
Steve Matz – Up!!!
So while there are still a lot of questions left about where this team is headed, there are those numbers again from the top of the page. In addition to having the best hard-hit ball percentage, the Mets are also first in line drive percentage and their GB/FB% is right around that of much better offensive clubs. Certainly an eight-run demolition of the Los Angeles Dodgers was nice, but even just half of that production on a regular basis would be a huge boost to this team. There is the very real potential for the Mets to hit much better by merely getting a bit luckier at the plate, and finally getting their starting catcher back for more than just a couple weeks. Any upgrade to Cuddyer’s play, or by some miracle an improvement via trade, promotion or a David Wright sighting, could vault this team into the realms of respectability again. And a respectable offense is all this rotation needs to win.
I am glad about the win, but I personally think you are staring at numbers instead of the games.
I don’t mean to show disrespect, I appreciate the work you do here.
I heard a different guy mention that the Mets “exit speed” numbers were low. So it becomes a matter of which details you think are most salient.
As we all know, we can use statistics to tell any story we want to tell.
“The Mets front office made extremely little outward signs of trying to right the ship when it was sinking fast” and may I add have done nothing to repair the problem so it won’t leak again.
“And a respectable offense is all this rotation needs to win” and may I add a solid defensive allignment behind them. It took 1/2 of a season to allign the infield. This rotation needs some offensive help because it is “special” and too many good pitching performances have been wasted.
There really is no excuse for the Mets not to a make two trades and improve this offense. The fans have been waiting for a long time for this opportunity.
Patrick we all know teams have highs and lows. Right now the Met’s are in a collective funk. Too many times the box score has feeble offensive numbers. How many times this year have the Met’s had less than 5 hits in a game? How many players in the line up are closer to the Mendoza line than .250? Something I just can’t wrap my head around. So when the kids start to wear down towards the end of the season the hitting will come around. Can’t win games with bad defense and zero clutch hitting. The best thing that can happen is a total collapse after the AS break and the team moving Gee, Niese, Colon and Cuddyer (minimal return that’s okay). Oh and of course TC gets promoted to the front office as a floating scout. Perfect punishment for a manager who hates to play rookies.
Actually, the best thing that can happen is still possible: This team wins the World Series.
They just need to make the “play-in” game and anything is possible. This pitching in a short series is formidable. Game 163 is terrifying.
The most frustrating thing about this team is that they are so very close. The expanded playoff format has changed the dynamic completely, and I do think that Sandy has figured that out.
A move here or there. A little luck. You never know.
James the truth is Sandy is not going to make a trade (not the ones we’re hoping for). Cosmetic changes only. Another trading deadline veteran for some future “stars”. The answer has to be internal for Alderson. You don’t think Collins is whispering in Fred’s ear about the fiasco team SA has provide him with? Yes the Met’s are close. And so are the Braves with their revamped team that was supposedly gearing up for 2017. You see it’s that false hope that Fred is hoping you will lean on and continue to foster so that he will maintain control of his team. The goal is not to win. The goal is to maintain control of the team. We’ve become complacent. We’ve accepted Reuben Tejada as the best alternative at SS in a scenario where the team has no options. It’s BS and its blinding us. I stopped thinking with my heart for this team (ownership). Just look at all the “moves” the Wilpons have made. Add them up and tell me if we as fans are going to see a WS any time soon.
Amazing that we no longer have Jose Reyes and the IFFB is still so poor…
Mets were crushing the ball in the first few innings last night – i can recall at least 3 scorching liners hit right at Giant defense. Then they went cold until the 9th. But hopefully between the final Dodger game and last night, it’s a sign that the luck (BABIP) is starting to turn a little. 3 – 4 runs a game. That’s all we need. Having Murphy back really helps the top of the order and gives us a chance to get on the board early. Flores seems to enjoy hitting cleanup and playing 2B. He seems much more relaxed, and he’s hitting the ball the other way, not trying to do too much. Obviously Cuddyer and Duda need to break out of their horrendous slumps, but if even one of them does and Grandy, Murph, and Flores keep steady, I think we can go on a roll.
Very interesting, Patrick! I think an even bigger indicator here than the FB% is the team’s LD%, which I think would be more indicative of a team squaring the ball up but just being unlucky (when combined with a low BABIP). Get this: the Mets are first in the MLB in LD%! Craziness. I don’t know what to think here, except that we’re still only halfway through the season and the sample size, team wide, may be a bit too small yet.
Also, perhaps a player-by-player comparison would help. Granderson, Duda, and Cuddyer are actually hovering right around average BABIP, while Tejada and Murph are slightly below. Poor Flores is sporting a .266 BABIP, but is middle of the pack on the team as far as LD% and hard hit balls.
This team is weird.
Guess you did briefly mention that they’re first in LD%. Whoops. 🙂
But yeah I’d say that, while the hitters are overall still not very good as a whole, they may be due for a bit better luck. Still, some players (looking at you Cuddyer) have an BABIP that’s just fine. They’ve just not been very good. Cuddyer specifically has put the ball on the ground more than 50% of the time.
Patrick – I just wanted to say that I appreciate your article a great deal. I like your use of the stats (although I agree with one commenter who said that stats can be used to tell any story.) The one that you are telling just happens to be the one that I agree with. There’s a scenario to be painted that once the BABIP comes back to the mean, that we’ll all be saying things like “we should have known that a professional hitter like Cuddyer couldnt stay that bad for so long” or “Kirk finally is hitting like he did last year. I’m not often one to be the glass half full guy, but I do feel like things might be coming around. I’m even wondering if the 6man rotation isnt such a bad idea. Yes, I know that it’s never worked in history. But when has a team ever had 6 starters like the Mets? There was a time when the RB by committee was dismissed in the NFL and now it’s the norm.
Just saying…
Some of the Saber Stats have wondering, “Is that Real Crab, or is it that fake stuff!!??”.
Ruben Tejada has 8 lifetime Homers…when he hits his third 280 foot out of the game, is it a Hard Hit Ball?
Who does the counting on this stuff?… how do they quantify the Hard Hit Ball???
My eye test says low contact….and a shade Light as well