In his debut season, Matt Harvey made 10 starts. Since then, we’ve compared first Zack Wheeler then Jacob deGrom to Harvey after they, too, have made 10 starts. It’s time to do another update, as Noah Syndergaard has now reached, okay surpassed, that total. So, here’s how it looks:
| IP | W-L | ERA | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | WHIP | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| deGrom | 59.2 | 1-5 | 3.77 | 58 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 53 | 1.408 | .317 |
| Harvey | 59.1 | 3-5 | 2.73 | 42 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 26 | 70 | 1.146 | .268 |
| Syndergaard | 58.2 | 3-4 | 3.38 | 56 | 26 | 22 | 5 | 12 | 59 | 1.159 | .311 |
| Wheeler | 57.0 | 5-2 | 3.63 | 51 | 26 | 23 | 9 | 28 | 45 | 1.386 | .259 |
Harvey is still the king, with the lowest ERA, the lowest WHIP and the most strikeouts. But Syndergaard ties him with the fewest homers allowed, has the fewest walks and is in second place in ERA, strikeouts and WHIP. The bottom line is that this is pretty heady company and Syndergaard is more than holding his own.
Of course, we know that Wheeler improved some since his first 10 games and deGrom improved a lot. Syndergaard is off to a fine start in this regard, too. In his 11th start, all he did was to log 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB and 13 Ks, an outing which lowered his ERA to 3.10 for the year.
These are great numbers to look at in retrospect and even better to have watched unfold live. So, while we are just feeling wonderful about everything, let’s get way ahead of ourselves and imagine things a few months down the road.
I work as the official scorer for a summer collegiate baseball league team. Last night, there was a scout from the Dodgers at the park. This wasn’t the crusty old guy with a cigar in his mouth going on and on about how much things were better back in the old days. No, this scout was a younger guy, much closer to gregarious than crusty.
When the scout found out I was a Mets fan, his tone changed completely. He was still more than willing to share his opinion, but rather than his up-to-that-point storytelling mode, he switched into hyper-serious mode. And he said that the one team that no one wanted to face in the playoffs was the Mets.
This is not any great insight. We’ve heard from beat writers pretty much the same thing. But the thing that makes this interesting is that it’s beyond unlikely that this Dodgers scout who is 3,000 miles away from home in the backwoods of the country is plugged into what the Mets’ beat writers are saying. Instead, he likely has discussed this already with other scouts.
So, let’s assume the Mets make the playoffs, either as a division winner or Wild Card winner. Who does the club utilize in its playoff rotation? Wheeler obviously is out; Harvey and deGrom are obviously in. Which other two pitchers do you use as starters and who goes to the pen?
Bartolo Colon is likely the weak link of the bunch. But he’s also the only one with playoff experience, having pitched 10 postseason games in his career. Wouldn’t you guess that the veteran-loving Terry Collins would push for him to be one of the starters?
Jon Niese seems like an easy call to move to the bullpen. But if you needed someone to come in and give you a shutdown inning, would Niese be your guy? We all describe Niese as a battler. But he’s also the guy who depends on his defense and do we want him coming into a tied game and having to rely on his fielders to help him get out of a tight spot?
It may very well be that if the 2015 Mets make the postseason that Steven Matz and Syndergaard are moved to the bullpen. To be clear, this is not my preference, just an observation on how things might play out.
It should be noted that in his last five games, Syndergaard has been deGrom-like. In that span he has a 1.97 ERA with a 4.75 K/BB ratio and a 0.844 WHIP. It’s nice that the Mets didn’t give up on him after he allowed 11 ER in 10 IP in his previous two starts. It will be even nicer if he continues to pitch like he has lately down the stretch.
The Mets need Syndergaard to pitch well if they are to make the postseason. And Syndergaard can help his own playoff status by being a guy to reliably give the team strong outings. We want Syndergaard’s outings to be eight innings long, not one.
Although it is fun to think about how hard he could throw if he didn’t have to pace himself.
IMHO, Anyone would be over thinking it if they didn’t pitch the Four Aces and closed the ninth inning with Familia.
Well, if Matz is back and healthy, there is no way the Mets would move him out of the rotation for a playoff run. One of the principal markers of Matz’ baseball life is that he comes up big in high stress situations. He did in the minor league playoffs last year; he did it in his first two starts as a major leaguer.
Assuming a few hits started falling and the Mets did have a serious chance at October baseball, I would consider adding Michael Fulmer to the roster and working him into long man role. Fulmer has better stuff than anyone in the Pen excepting Familia and possibly Mejia, and Mejia will be inavailable in the postseason. Of course this would be seen as a wildly radical move in this organization.
Now,if the defense and hitting ( and TC’s managerial,umm,skill) would only allow the Mets to get into the playoffs…
Yeah, those are kinda gaping flaws for a threatening playoff team. The good news is other teams see the same potential we do.
It would be nice to know what Syndergaard’s innings cutoff is for this season. As well as Harvey and deGroms. What does the FO do when they reach their caps? The Met’s say one thing but always seem to do something other than what they say. Matz being injured may not be a major issue in the long run if he’s able to pitch the final 6 weeks of the season
The stated goal is not to exceed a 30-inning increase. So, Syndergaard would be at 163 and JDG at 208.2
It’s a little less clear with Harvey, but MetsBlog today said the Mets set a 180-inning target at the beginning of the year.
I heard Gary or Howie or someone say they would not let Harvey reach 200 reg season IP.
Management of the staff has been abyssmal And and filled with inconsistencies that has led to confusion not just among fans, but players themselves. Alderson says its 6 man for the foreseeable future. Not 10 minutes after collins tells Harvey to “deal with it” about the 6 man rotation because it is necessary to save innings, Matz goes off line, and poof, you’d think that there would be a promo to get back to 6 (although I realize with the ASG it’s not a rush). However Collins goes on to say it’s not clear whether they will now use 6 starters. The philosophy changes with the wind. The arguments used to tell us why and how important melt at the light of a match. So how many innings will Harvey pitch? Who knows. But he goes into the ASG break at 111 IP, with 57% of the season lapsed. On the present track, Harvey is headed for 195 IP. If 180 is the goal, then he will need to skip 2 or 3 starts.
Perhaps the key, as always, is to ignore what TC says. Collins has his ideas – for sure – but he’s not the one making the big picture plans.
I have to admit I’m not sure what the playoff rotation would look like assuming everyone is healthy. I was going to suggest something ells altogether when it occurred to me barts easy motion would be perfect to use in that ro darling relief roll start your young aces and if someone struggles the old vet can come in and bail them out. As for the order of the four aces I think that depends on the series as I believe you want DeGrom and Thor to pitch at home since they are better at home. I think you want Harvey going into the other teams hostel environment and I want matz first ever playoff start to be on the road so he does not face the pressure of 200 family members wanting tickets and so on. How the mets get in matters to:
Scenario 1: Mets win the division have home field:
DeGroum Game 1 and 5 @ citi
Thor Game 2 @ Citi
Harvey Game 3 on the road let him face a potential elimination with a hostile Crowd
Matz game 4
Scenario 2: Win the division and are the road team
Harvey gets Game 1 and 5 on the road set the tone and clincher
Matz Gets Game 2 so he starts on the road
DeGroum at home in a potential elimination or clingher
Thor gets game 4 @ citi
Scenario 3: wild Card host or guest you send harvey to the hill and let the chips fall how they may.
Of course all of this presupposes they will be able to set up their rotation as they like. I believe they will be in a fight for playoff position all year so they may just have to go the next man up rought.
Perhaps Sandy will introduce a seven man rotation? Great piece Brian. i really enjoyed the part about your discussion with the Dodgers scout. I hear they have a couple of pretty solid arms too.
If they all continue to pitch they way they recently have and if they are all available and not over their innings limits.. you have to go with the 4 young guys. You move Colon and Niese to the bullpen.